Russia - Ukraine Conflict 2022 (59 Viewers)

s4tch

Senior Member
Mar 23, 2015
28,458
Agree with the rest of your post, but this is plain hilarious :biggrin:


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it is actually, that's why i started with it ;) if it was some middle east dictator nobody would give a fuck obviously, but it's russia

i also forgot to add that putin probably has some dirty shit on trump. i can't imagine trump representing the us in a negotiation, he'd be a clown trying to save his own ass
 

GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
69,405
I still don't get your point here. So Putin will just turn course and walk away with nothing (after a failed war, 10s of thousands dead, humiliation on epic scale and economic devastation) but that will be ok because Trump is not representative of "globo homo" and has previously made comments about other nations shouldering more of the financial NATO burden ? Didn't Trump compare the Russian invasion to the Holocaust?

Maybe Putin views Trump as less globally aggressive than establishment Washington, maybe the war would not have happened as it did if Trump has been re-elected but how far does that kick the can down the road? 4 years? You said yourself it's time to "deal with" Russia but I don't understand what Russia, long term, gets out of that situation and I don't buy that the perception of trump counts for much, at least not anymore after Russia has lost so much

Good point but de-escalating and weakening Russia are not mutually exclusive. West stops relying on their energy and curb magnitude of tech exports.

Both parties will have to make concessions but hey even the balkans were pacified.

The trump idea is a wild card and is just my humble opinion of what could be an interesting way out for the russians. Fucking Rodman made headways in north korea.
 

GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
69,405
doesn't murica have a clear policy on negotiating with terrorists though

and i doubt that the us will want to play by putin's rules. for him the only way out of this is either being shot or end the war as a victorious leader. if anyone (including trump) agrees to give any land to russia then it will just encourage the next putin to attack other countries. zero tolerance is the only way.

i still hope that common sense prevails and a rare brave russian does it for the country. just one bullet.

Agree, but america will not go the distance. And i think will is much more complicated to achieve than way in this situation. If there's something, an event, that makes the will of the russians to talk peace not look weak it would be very helpful. I dont think the how will be as difficult.
 

s4tch

Senior Member
Mar 23, 2015
28,458
Agree, but america will not go the distance. And i think will is much more complicated to achieve than way in this situation. If there's something, an event, that makes the will of the russians to talk peace not look weak it would be very helpful. I dont think the how will be as difficult.
check lavrov's latest on potential negotiations, you never know with russians but it might mean that they already started to prepare to save face
 

Nzoric

Grazie Mirko
Jan 16, 2011
37,763
check lavrov's latest on potential negotiations, you never know with russians but it might mean that they already started to prepare to save face
Imo it looks like it from both sides. Biden called Putin rational yesterday iirc.


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Apr 12, 2004
77,165
Called him a "rational actor" meaning, to me at least, Putin is irrational and is someone pretending to be rational.
The Rational Choice Perspective
This question is the point of departure for rational choice perspectives of solidarity. Truly rational actors will not join a group to pursue common ends when, without participating, they can reap the benefit of other people's activity in obtaining them. Instead of contributing to the common weal, rational actors will free ride (Olson 1965) and behave individualistically when it is expedient.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/computer-science/rational-actor
 

X Æ A-12

Senior Member
Contributor
Sep 4, 2006
86,721
Called him a "rational actor" meaning, to me at least, Putin is irrational and is someone pretending to be rational.
I don't think that's what rational actor means

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Imo it looks like it from both sides. Biden called Putin rational yesterday iirc.


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It's certainly a noticeable shift in tone from when Biden was calling Putin unhinged and claiming the only acceptable outcome was regime chance about 7-8 months ago.

Either they are trying to negotiate or they really are scared this is too close to WW3 but rhetoric in the US seems to have cooled recently

This is a part of why I said Ukraine should be looking to negotiate too. How far is Ukraine going to get in this with US support dwindling down? Will they realistically hit a higher peak/ better position than now?
 

Nzoric

Grazie Mirko
Jan 16, 2011
37,763
Called him a "rational actor" meaning, to me at least, Putin is irrational and is someone pretending to be rational.
I think youre very wrong in that interpretation. An ‘actor’ is just the term for a person in philosophy.

A full rapprochement is quite the stretch, but it does look like Russia is looking for a way out and the US weighing their options here. EU will do whatever the US dictates, that much is obvious.


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Nzoric

Grazie Mirko
Jan 16, 2011
37,763
Called him a "rational actor" meaning, to me at least, Putin is irrational and is someone pretending to be rational.
Also, I think entering UA was a calculated move. Either he is really bad at math or all intel leading to the decision was deceiving. Thats what you get from a 0 mistake culture - everything not functioning stops at your desk and only good news go up. In the end decisions are made on false premises.


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Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
88,444
In trying to be overly objective the author loses his way, only Russia is constantly escalating and only Russia has brought up the possibility of nuclear weapons. Every day that goes by putins power diminishes. I was confident a year ago none of his generals would follow along with any suicidal action, i am more so today. Power is a mix of fear and hope, and putin is less scary and offers less prospects by the day. Russia was always a problem that needed to be dealt with. A missed opportunity after the fall of the USSR, but this is as good a time as any. Now comes the very important and imo only valid question, at what cost? Seems like europe is going all in, the US is committed now but could very well change tune with a republican white house. I brought it up before here but trump getting elected again might be the way out for putin. For 2 reasons, the first is trump is not scared to meet face to face and assert himself, and 2 it offers a way for putin to save face by suing for peace with the non globohomo "good" half of America.
Is the US donating or "donating"?
 
Apr 12, 2004
77,165
I think youre very wrong in that interpretation. An ‘actor’ is just the term for a person in philosophy.

A full rapprochement is quite the stretch, but it does look like Russia is looking for a way out and the US weighing their options here. EU will do whatever the US dictates, that much is obvious.


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I quoted my own post and pasted the a paragraph.
 
OP
Bjerknes

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,603
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #7,155
    It's not so much what trump is but more what he represents. Trump on paper is anti EU and anti nato, that gives putin a platform to not lose face with his people if he de-escalates. Trump is also not scared to do away with foreign policy protocols and just go meet face to face with putin which imo will be good for russian propaganda.
    I see what you're saying here. And part of me thinks that Putin has waited for a weak President like Biden to take power, although I think they have been preparing for this before he was elected. But again, I don't think that Putin cares about saving face. It was always going to be a disaster entering this war with huge Russian losses in terms of economics and body count. Right now the former doesn't look as bad since they are waging an energy war on the world and western governments make it worse by continued sanctions. So I don't see him stopping this even if Trump is re-elected.

    Folks won't like this, and I'm sure I'll be labeled a Russian shill for this, but the economist in me thinks that the US can't keep supporting Ukraine in terms of money forever. We are literally going to be printing dollars for this for years to come. If we actually have a dollar crisis at some point, in the face of rampant inflation due to scarcity (aluminum prices are going to the moon very soon because of the Russian ban), the situation will be dire. The dollar has been surging and so have commodity prices, so just wait until the dollar falls and everything priced in dollars skyrockets even more.

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    Is the US donating or "donating"?
    *Printing

    CPI news today, up 8.2% year over year way above expectations despite rate hikes.
     

    Elvin

    Senior Member
    Nov 25, 2005
    36,854
    I see what you're saying here. And part of me thinks that Putin has waited for a weak President like Biden to take power, although I think they have been preparing for this before he was elected. But again, I don't think that Putin cares about saving face. It was always going to be a disaster entering this war with huge Russian losses in terms of economics and body count. Right now the former doesn't look as bad since they are waging an energy war on the world and western governments make it worse by continued sanctions. So I don't see him stopping this even if Trump is re-elected.

    Folks won't like this, and I'm sure I'll be labeled a Russian shill for this, but the economist in me thinks that the US can't keep supporting Ukraine in terms of money forever. We are literally going to be printing dollars for this for years to come. If we actually have a dollar crisis at some point, in the face of rampant inflation due to scarcity (aluminum prices are going to the moon very soon because of the Russian ban), the situation will be dire. The dollar has been surging and so have commodity prices, so just wait until the dollar falls and everything priced in dollars skyrockets even more.

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    *Printing

    CPI news today, up 8.2% year over year way above expectations despite rate hikes.
    Economist or not, no way in hell Russia survives longer than the West.

    The only way Russia "saves face" is if American policy changes.
     

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