Yep, Ukraine/Polland are the third choice but personally I wouldn't know if they have slimmer chances than us, I'm unfamiliar with the conditions there.
Though Italy was a clear favourite they have really made a mess for themselves now.
I don't know what are our realistic chances but I wouldn't say they are too big and no one here is holding his breath either. We have 2 obstacles; stadiums and fans. I am not concerned about our fans as they can be controlled, all they need to do is put special forces there, not those security stewards or whatever than run home at the first sight of a fist. Our biggest derby, Dinamo vs. Hajduk, has not produced riots for a looong time because of that.
I'm most worried about stadiums because ours are shit, that includes our 2 best stadiums. Dinamo's Maksimir is unfinished for over a decade and Hajduk's Poljud is barely holding himself together. Both need some serious renovating and we need at least one new stadium and there in lies the problem. Where are we gonna build a new, modern, 50,000 capacity stadium and most importantly what the hell are we gonna do with it after the Euro? Our National leauge is poor and attendances are drastically low, none of our clubs would deserve a new stadium or would have any use for it. It would be best be to tear down the damn thing when the Euro is over.
I don't know the conditions of Hungary either but our bid is the weakest of all I'd say, when this with Italy cools down I think they're gonna be favourites again. Though if we somehow managed to get the Euro, it would certainly be one to remember.