Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (31 Viewers)

Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
88,444
Today's number of 683 deaths in Italy is no doubt horrible, but it's related to the huge number of cases from the previous 7-10 days. This number of dead patients will even grow in the following days once those diagnosed from March 19-March 25 start dying.
It's the number of new cases which is most important and it's encouraging indeed. If in a day or two they reach close to that number of 4207 from March 18, then the curve is definitely taking the right shape. In the following 3 weeks (judging by South Korea's case) the number of new cases will drop below 300-400 a day and in the next 2-3 weeks it should be completely under control. Give or take, I give 6 weeks before everything's under control.
That's the thing. I think Asians are much more disciplined that our part of Europe. Theoretically, it does sound like that, but it's kinda worrying how Chinese doctors were left in shock when they saw (only recently) how so many people walk around Milano without any masks on. If it took Asians 3 weeks I'd say we'll need 5 judging by how stupid we are. But yeah, either way I can't see it go down in less than a month. But even then they will have many less cases, surely, but plenty will be on the recovery/deathbed. So even after that period we'll need surely another 3 weeks of surveillance.
 

Ronn

#TeamPestoFlies
May 3, 2012
19,599
I'm glad you find it funny. Considering MERS happening the same year he decided not to purchase the equipment, years before that was SARS...all respiratory related pandemics...

I mean it seems logical considering just about all the recent epidemics/pandemics are respiratory related one would think you'd want a major city like NYC (or any major city) covered for events like this or at least think long term about them.
That’s some Monday morning quarterbacking. To put things in perspective NY has enough ICU beds for ALL MERS confirmed cases since 2012.

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These are basic, well researched healthcare/pandemic protocols. Cuomo isn't the only one to blame, and Trump is a lot more to blame.
It’s one thing you so not forecast a pandemic as bad as this, but it’s entirely a different story when you KNOW it’s coming, you see multiple country get tangled in it before you, and choose to do nothing but stopping a few flights.
 
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ALC

Ohaulick
Oct 28, 2010
46,017
That's the thing. I think Asians are much more disciplined that our part of Europe. Theoretically, it does sound like that, but it's kinda worrying how Chinese doctors were left in shock when they saw (only recently) how so many people walk around Milano without any masks on. If it took Asians 3 weeks I'd say we'll need 5 judging by how stupid we are. But yeah, either way I can't see it go down in less than a month. But even then they will have many less cases, surely, but plenty will be on the recovery/deathbed. So even after that period we'll need surely another 3 weeks of surveillance.
bro, they’re talking about ending this by Easter

edit: nvm, thought this was hust
 

campionesidd

Senior Member
Mar 16, 2013
15,389
I'm glad you find it funny. Considering MERS happening the same year he decided not to purchase the equipment, years before that was SARS...all respiratory related pandemics...

I mean it seems logical considering just about all the recent epidemics/pandemics are respiratory related one would think you'd want a major city like NYC (or any major city) covered for events like this or at least think long term about them.
You do realize that hospitals cannot afford to keep these equipment for years on end, to prepare for something that may or may not happen in years or decades?
I can't believe people are blaming Cuomo for this. :sergio:
He has been 1000x proactive than the orange baboon in the white house.
 

Alen

Ѕenior Аdmin
Apr 2, 2007
52,552
either way I can't see it go down in less than a month.
Depends what do you mean by going down. If you mean they'll have similar numbers as today in the next 20-30 days, then they're doing something extremely wrong and if they're doing so much wrong, the numbers will not be steady - they'll be going up and it's gonna be a catastrophe with millions infected and hundreds of thousands dead. I doubt this will happen. The numbers should go down and reach below thousand in the next 3 weeks (my calculations say 300-400 a day). Add another 3 weeks for the numbers to reach around 40-50 per day and have it under control, and another two or three weeks until they get to zero. My prognosis is the end of May for 0 new cases in Italy. Football, without crowd, could start a little earlier perhaps. But they will need to keep going as they are at the moment. They are not disciplined for sure, but with the same half-discipline of today, they should be fine by the end of May.
The others (Spain, USA, UK etc) will probably need a little more (maybe mid June).
 

Post Ironic

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2013
41,923
You do realize that hospitals cannot afford to keep these equipment for years on end, to prepare for something that may or may not happen in years or decades?
I can't believe people are blaming Cuomo for this. :sergio:
He has been 1000x proactive than the orange baboon in the white house.
It’s only Trump apologist Republicans like Cam doing this.

Trump disbanded the pandemic response team, slashed funding for this sort of stuff, and then his federal government is outbidding states on medical equipment and supplies after he said states must purchase them on their own lol. This after calling it a hoax for over a month too.

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These are basic, well researched healthcare/pandemic protocols. Cuomo isn't the only one to blame, and Trump is a lot more to blame.
:tup:
 

kappa96

Senior Member
Jun 20, 2018
6,902
That's the thing. I think Asians are much more disciplined that our part of Europe. Theoretically, it does sound like that, but it's kinda worrying how Chinese doctors were left in shock when they saw (only recently) how so many people walk around Milano without any masks on. If it took Asians 3 weeks I'd say we'll need 5 judging by how stupid we are. But yeah, either way I can't see it go down in less than a month. But even then they will have many less cases, surely, but plenty will be on the recovery/deathbed. So even after that period we'll need surely another 3 weeks of surveillance.
That's because they have a history of pandemics starting from there. Sars, the chicken flu or aviary flu and now cov 19 started in that area.
We(Europeans and Americans) or the rest of the world for that matter hardly have had to deal with this threat on this larger scale.
Maybe it's because we don't eat bat soup.
 

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