Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (12 Viewers)

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
101,568
#1
We can use this thread for news and reports related to the COVID-19 outbreak, which is trending towards becoming a pandemic. I wouldn't be surprised if the WHO declares this as such this week.

Latest news on the Coronavirus:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/23/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

Coronavirus Live Updates via YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCshCsg1YVKli8yBai-wa78w

Mapping of virus cases:

http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c88e37cfc43b4ed3baf977d77e4a0667
 

duranfj

Senior Member
Jul 30, 2015
6,596
#2
I was really confident that everyone was doing an awesome job till 3 days ago. It's clear that for all those people under quarentines it was a living hell but from the outsiders point of view it was working. The contagious rate considering all in all were really low. The economical impact was hard but not devasting.

Now I feel is almost game over. After Italian and Iranian cases I think is just a matter of time we all are going to face that disease in a new whole dimension. Hopefully something come soon enough to control this shit before is too late.
 
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Bjerknes

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
101,568
#3
I was really confident that everyone was doing an awesome job till 3 days ago. It's clear that for all those people under quarentines it was a living hell but from the outsiders point of view it was working. The contagious rate considering all in all were really low. The economical impact was hard but not devasting.

Now I feel is almost game over. After Italian and Iranian cases I think is just a matter of time we all are going to face that disease in a new whole dimension. Hopefully something come soon enough to control this shit before is too late.
It's hard to say what China was actually doing a month ago to stop the virus, but for their sake it might have been too late even at that point. I suppose we could say good job to them by creating the quarantine zones, but it's rather unlikely the numbers they have been reporting are accurate. Are the quarantines actually working, or have they been lying about the new infection rate? Clearly they have been covering up the death rates as they aren't counting "pneumonia" deaths as COVID-19 related, when most likely they are.

So while China continues to report fewer new cases, the virus is still clearly spreading. All that it takes is a few folks with the virus to travel to other nations who have inept governments and you have a secondary outbreak. Italy is a perfect spot for that to occur -- inept government, lots of tourism, easy travel, close to other countries, et cetera. Not good there.

- - - Updated - - -

CDC Risk Assessment

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html#risk-assessment

"The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States."
 

ALC

Ohaulick
Oct 28, 2010
42,393
#4
I was really confident that everyone was doing an awesome job till 3 days ago. It's clear that for all those people under quarentines it was a living hell but from the outsiders point of view it was working. The contagious rate considering all in all were really low. The economical impact was hard but not devasting.

Now I feel is almost game over. After Italian and Iranian cases I think is just a matter of time we all are going to face that disease in a new whole dimension. Hopefully something come soon enough to control this shit before is too late.
we should have a vaccine by the end of summer
 

duranfj

Senior Member
Jul 30, 2015
6,596
#5
It's hard to say what China was actually doing a month ago to stop the virus, but for their sake it might have been too late even at that point. I suppose we could say good job to them by creating the quarantine zones, but it's rather unlikely the numbers they have been reporting are accurate. Are the quarantines actually working, or have they been lying about the new infection rate? Clearly they have been covering up the death rates as they aren't counting "pneumonia" deaths as COVID-19 related, when most likely they are.

So while China continues to report fewer new cases, the virus is still clearly spreading. All that it takes is a few folks with the virus to travel to other nations who have inept governments and you have a secondary outbreak. Italy is a perfect spot for that to occur -- inept government, lots of tourism, easy travel, close to other countries, et cetera. Not good there.

- - - Updated - - -

CDC Risk Assessment

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html#risk-assessment

"The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States."
Well right now I'm working for a chinese company and our factories there were working since almost two weeks so at least for that I can tell you they have been doing a good job

And as i said, I agree about the Italy and Iran part cuz I think the impact right now looks inminent for me. I have really low expectations about their capabilities to control the disease

- - - Updated - - -

we should have a vaccine by the end of summer
It looks like our best shot right now. Sadly that can mean that thousands and thousands are going to keep dying all over the world and an economical breakdown can really be in place by that time
 

kao_ray

Senior Member
Feb 28, 2014
5,175
#6
we should have a vaccine by the end of summer
I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but it's impossible to have a vaccine so soon. Perhaps 18 months is the best case scenario and it is not very likely. We can have a good viral drug soon though. The vaccine will take time.

Here's one example for a failed vaccine for SARS. A journal from 2012 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0035421
The vaccine actually makes things worse the next time you get infected with the virus.

So while China continues to report fewer new cases, the virus is still clearly spreading. All that it takes is a few folks with the virus to travel to other nations who have inept governments and you have a secondary outbreak.
As much as I would like to bash all governments - this virus is impossible to stop. It can spread through asymptomatic people. See this from yesterday about the Diamond Princess
57 new cases (55 crew members and 2 passengers, of which 52 asymptomatic) and 1 new death (a man in his 80s) from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
It's estimated that it can have an incubation period of 27 days and infected asymptomatic person can spread it left and right. You can't stop that. Let's hope that the death rate is far lower and we only see the tip of the iceberg. Otherwise we are in front of the biggest human tragedy in the last 70 years and maybe 100.
 

Ronn

#TeamPestoFlies
May 3, 2012
12,187
#12
Iran was one of the few countries that did not halt flights from China. In fact they still haven’t stopped flying to and from China.
 

Buck Fuddy

Lara Chedraoui fanboy
May 22, 2009
9,480
#14
Can someone explain why contries are taking such extreme measures?

From what I understand (which isn't much, admittedly), this virus is no more, or even less, harmful than any other type of seasonal flu. Yet the yearly flu season doesn't lead to any specific measures in terms of quarantines and the likes, while this one does.

Is it because this is a new strain? Or am I missing something?
 

s4tch

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Contributor
Mar 23, 2015
12,014
#15
Can someone explain why contries are taking such extreme measures?

From what I understand (which isn't much, admittedly), this virus is no more, or even less, harmful than any other type of seasonal flu. Yet the yearly flu season doesn't lead to any specific measures in terms of quarantines and the likes, while this one does.

Is it because this is a new strain? Or am I missing something?
it's more lethal than flu. death rates are well below 0,1% for flu and 2-3% (depending on reports) for covid-19.

also, there's a huge pressure by who on the governments, and nobody will refuse to follow who directives until there's a known cure and a vaccine.
 

Ronn

#TeamPestoFlies
May 3, 2012
12,187
#16
Can someone explain why contries are taking such extreme measures?

From what I understand (which isn't much, admittedly), this virus is no more, or even less, harmful than any other type of seasonal flu. Yet the yearly flu season doesn't lead to any specific measures in terms of quarantines and the likes, while this one does.

Is it because this is a new strain? Or am I missing something?
From what I understand even though mortality rate is still low it spreads much faster than the seasonal flu.
 
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Bjerknes

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
101,568
#17
Can someone explain why contries are taking such extreme measures?

From what I understand (which isn't much, admittedly), this virus is no more, or even less, harmful than any other type of seasonal flu. Yet the yearly flu season doesn't lead to any specific measures in terms of quarantines and the likes, while this one does.

Is it because this is a new strain? Or am I missing something?
I think that the mortality rate and the reproduction rate (R0) for the virus is still unknown to "authorities" such as the CDC and WHO. The reason for that is because nobody can trust the Chinese government statistics and they refuse to allow other organizations to come into Wuhan to study the virus. So right now, we can only base our estimates on what they say, along with the statistics from other nations. However, it does appear to be worse than the seasonal flu due to the duration of symptoms and potential longstanding side effects. Hopefully the death rate is less than the season flu, but something tells me it's not.

Another way to look at this is reviewing the actions of the Chinese government in a vacuum. If the response is assumed to be proportionate to the threat, and China is literally closing down cities of 10 million people, then that isn't a good sign.

Lots of deaths in Iran now, too.
 

kao_ray

Senior Member
Feb 28, 2014
5,175
#19
Can someone explain why contries are taking such extreme measures?

From what I understand (which isn't much, admittedly), this virus is no more, or even less, harmful than any other type of seasonal flu. Yet the yearly flu season doesn't lead to any specific measures in terms of quarantines and the likes, while this one does.

Is it because this is a new strain? Or am I missing something?
So far the death rate is a lot higher than the flu - officially around 3% - the flu is about 0.1%. Also, this virus is far more contagious than the flu - it has a huge incubation period (meaning - you are without any symptoms but you are carrying and spreading the virus) up to 27 days. Also, it is airborne and not like most of the flu - spreading through air droplets. Which makes it even more contagious.

There are reports that it could damage your heart for life through the ACE-2 receptors that are present there. Also, this virus is RNA which makes it very susceptible to mutations and it looks like there is a bad mutation in Iran which according to the official data right now makes the death rate there about 20%.

Also, as you pointed out this is a virus we don't know much about, we don't have any immunity and we don't know the long term consequences on our health from it.
 

Cerval

Senior Member
Premium
Feb 20, 2016
19,443
#20
Can someone explain why contries are taking such extreme measures?

From what I understand (which isn't much, admittedly), this virus is no more, or even less, harmful than any other type of seasonal flu. Yet the yearly flu season doesn't lead to any specific measures in terms of quarantines and the likes, while this one does.

Is it because this is a new strain? Or am I missing something?
From what I know what you said is true but the virus also propagates much more easily than the flu. It's the people at risk (having conditions, predisposition or illness) that may become casualties therefore if we can limit the number of people being affected, these people will be safer
 

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