yep, Sergio, I agree on basically all accounts. As much as I understand your anxiety, I really don't think you have much to worry about - trust me, I'd love for the Falcons to win should the Pats make the SB, but I just can't find one good reason for why this could actually happen. As poor the Ravens have been by their usual standard this year, and as good as the falcons have been - probably the best Falcons team I've seen, ever - I'd much rather see my Pats play away at the Falcons than at home vs the Ravens.
When it comes to RBs, I'd worry more about the small but tough and elusive Rodgers than Turner. As good a RB as the latter is, he's a bit too slow to pose a real threat, on a consistent basis, to the quick and tough LB core of the 49ers, should he make it past the front 4, that is. Good thing for you guys is that the Falcons don't give Rodgers as many snaps as they should, imo. Also, while I don't have the stats from last game, the Falcons don't have a consistent running game in general and most of their running yards vs Seattle came in the 1st half when the seahawks were still finding their footing (very much like the Skins had gashed them a week earlier). Once Seattle woke up and realized the game had already started, however, Atlanta had a tough time running on them, this made them too 1-D on offense and the seattle secondary won the battle with the falcons WR. I honestly cannot imagine the 49ers taking so long to enter the game as the Seahawks did, which I think is the main difference between two very similarly built teams.
One other thing that comes to mind is something I don't see mentioned enough - Atlanta is a one-half of football team. I have yet to see them play consistently thru 60 min, ecpet maybe vs a dead NY Giants team. Atlanta is usually very good for either the 1st or 2nd half but rarely, if ever, thruout an entire game. Yesterday, for example, the game seemed to be over at HT but I was telling friends I was watching it with that the Falcons would cool off in the 2nd and Seattle would make a come back and if not for the 6 pts seattle left on the field, they'd have won the game. That's another reason why I just can't for the life of me come up with a good reason why they stand a chance vs the 49ers even in Atlanta. In San fran this game would have been a 4-5 possession blowout, imo, but because it's in Atlanta, I'd say it would be a 3 possession game. Would love to see the Falcons pull it off somehow, but it's simply beyond me how that could happen.
All in all, the 49ers, with their quick yet tough defense and balanced offense, are way too tough a match up for a team like the Falcons, with it's average defense and relying too heavily on passing O, as they use their more often than not anemic running game simply to set up the pass. Yet, the biggest mismatch I see between these two is the mentality of these teams - while Matty Ice is a good QB, he is not a winner and see him struggling vs the 49ers secondary (less tha 3-4 ints, and I'd be officially impressed), and the same goes for the Falcons' coach - just looking at the guys body-language tells me all I need to know, don't even have to look at his postseason record. At the same time the 9ers are as tough a team as there is in the league, they aren't perfect, but are mentally tough.
Of course the Falcons have a very good WR core, of course Ryan is a good QB and can swing it, of course they would make some big plays here and there just don't see them doing it on a consistent enough basis to win this game. Barring a brain-fart of a performance from Kaep, who I have to say has been guilty of some of these this season, there is just no game here for me.
Oh, and did I mention John Abraham may well not be able to play and even if he makes it, he would likely be very limited and ineffective?
P.S. Apologies to Falcon fans around here if I seem to dis their team too much but it's how I see it unravel.
... they may as well book the flights and hotel rooms in NO
. Next man up, I guess.
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