Nobody wants a big dance, but we all walk around with big talk. With smoke, there's fire.
I don't know how anyone could rule out major war with the current situation in the world. The US has limited resources, is seen to be in a period of economic decline, and our "enemies" will want to exploit that fact. Iraq will probably see an increase in violence, Iran will always be a problem we will ponder attacking, Pakistan will become much less friendly to the US in the coming years, Russia is losing more and more of their influence in the Balkans, Israel is still at arms with everybody in the region, etc etc etc. And it keeps getting worse. All this turmoil from the Adriatic all the way through Pakistan is a melting pot just waiting to boil over.
Not sure how we can rule out a major escalation in these regions.
Sure, there will be war in the Balkans. But it won't last long and it won't get to the grand scale that is being dreamed up in this thread. Why? Because the world won't let it get that big.
You think all the powers that set up Kosova's independence are going to let a war go on? At the first sign of a war the UN and NATO fill the region with peacekeepers. The West isn't going to allow their "baby" to go to crap in the first years of its inception. The funny thing is that US troops will most likely not be involved in peacekeeping.
Why? We don't have any more troops. Simply enough, we have extended our military resources about as far as they can go. Also, we are beginning to swich administrations in a country already fed up with war for profit. That and we really don't have much of a reason to have troops in Serbia, compared to that of the Middle East. I mean, maybe if Serbia starts flying planes into our buildings, maybe they have a shot at us coming to dinner.* And the fact that it is impossible for us to hold positions in both the Middle East and the Balkans. It would have to be one or the other, not both. That aside, all the reasons, good and bad, for invading countries: terrorism, oil, fighting terrorism, oil, bases, oil, Dubai and money, are mostly found in the Middle East.**
As for the theory that Russia, Serbia, and the Middle Eastern countries will unite for some huge Battle Royal with the West is a bit absurd. With the exception of Russia and Serbia, none of the other countries in question are allied strong enough to embark on such an endeavor. As for nukes, get out of here...with the exception of the Terminator I don't see nuclear war in our future. No one wants to destroy the world. The leaders of Iran and North Korea still want to be able to sip their Congac and smoke their tobacco in golden thrones, once they take this joint over.
This said, will there be increased tension in regions for years and decades to come? Yes, of course.
Could there eventually be a war in the Balkans? Yes, in about 10 years when Europe gets tired of baby sitting Kosova. I expect Serbia to attempt to take her lands back. Who knows? Maybe even sooner.
Here's the real question as for me:
Will the US still be involved in World politics by then? I really hope not. I think Mr. Obama will pay attention to the past Presidents and stop this policy of manipulation for our own (US) needs.
One word of advice to my Serbian friends, remember to put the toilet seat down when you guys are done with our Embassy.
*Thats a joke. Don't really do that.
**I do know Kosova has oil, but not on the same magnitude as the Middle East. Plus we are already there. It would cost too much to move and you know what misers we can be.