Summer Mercato Thread 2019-20 (46 Viewers)

[italiacalcio10]

I’ll take a look but will need to use a translator hahaha


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They say even if the Cancelo-Danilo deal happened and we sell Dybala for 80M, it'll still difficult to make another big tranfers unless we sell more: Higuain, Mandzukic, Khedira, Matuidi?

Yeah basically. These are the assumptions:

1. They are using a ratio of player expenditures to sales, which is fine, but I would imagine management is a bit more sophisticated than that. The one thing that they are assuming is that management performs their analysis using a blended gross wage that includes the period up to December 31st before the growth decree takes place. I don't see why management wouldn't be willing to be a bit more aggressive here given that there is a clear, sustainable step-down on Dec 31.
2. The other thing is that they are using a sell-side financial report revenue forecast, so a lot depends on whether revenues for 19/20 before plusvalenza are greater or less than 500MM. Obviously a champions league final run would help a lot. We know for sure there is a 35M recurring step up from Adidas. Any other sponsorship deals we know about that are coming into effect in 2020?
3. Mandzukic, Khedira, Matuidi of course need to go because of the gross salary it will free up & the capital gains that at least 2 will provide. I'm not convinced Dybala needs to be sold because capital gains can be achieved from other sources.
4. They assume 0 loan revenues, which we know is never true. They also assume that we can't go and sell non-first team players. For example, we're at least getting 7M from Favilli next year. This year we earned substantial plusvalenza in the final months of the season from these deals.

 

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[s4tch]

They say even if the Cancelo-Danilo deal happened and we sell Dybala for 80M, it'll still difficult to make another big tranfers unless we sell more: Higuain, Mandzukic, Khedira, Matuidi?

yes, that's what the author says, and that's because of our enormous wage bill + high amortization. see the 2nd excel sheet for that: the current squad would cost us 415m (wages, taxes and amortization included), which is 70m higher than last season. also, we need to sell because we do have too much players: with only one homegrown player left in the first squad, we can only name 22 players on both the cl and the serie a lists (which calcioefinanza didn't care about, they are a financial site primarily). now we have 28; danilo replaces cancelo, dybala might be sold, that's still 27 players. we can expect a busy and painful august mercato.

btw the numbers are good, calcioefinanza rarely make huge mistakes.

 

[juve123]

Yeah basically. These are the assumptions:

1. They are using a ratio of player expenditures to sales, which is fine, but I would imagine management is a bit more sophisticated than that. The one thing that they are assuming is that management performs their analysis using a blended gross wage that includes the period up to December 31st before the growth decree takes place. I don't see why management wouldn't be willing to be a bit more aggressive here given that there is a clear, sustainable step-down on Dec 31.
2. The other thing is that they are using a sell-side financial report revenue forecast, so a lot depends on whether revenues for 19/20 before plusvalenza are greater or less than 500MM. Obviously a champions league final run would help a lot. We know for sure there is a 35M recurring step up from Adidas. Any other sponsorship deals we know about that are coming into effect in 2020?
3. Mandzukic, Khedira, Matuidi of course need to go because of the gross salary it will free up & the capital gains that at least 2 will provide. I'm not convinced Dybala needs to be sold because capital gains can be achieved from other sources.
4. They assume 0 loan revenues, which we know is never true. They also assume that we can't go and sell non-first team players. For example, we're at least getting 7M from Favilli next year. This year we earned substantial plusvalenza in the final months of the season from these deals.

Aren't the wages to revenue ratio bit too high and secondly we need to grow our commercial revenue to solve our problems

 

[Akshen]

yes, that's what the author says, and that's because of our enormous wage bill + high amortization. see the 2nd excel sheet for that: the current squad would cost us 415m (wages, taxes and amortization included), which is 70m higher than last season. also, we need to sell because we do have too much players: with only one homegrown player left in the first squad, we can only name 22 players on both the cl and the serie a lists (which calcioefinanza didn't care about, they are a financial site primarily). now we have 28; danilo replaces cancelo, dybala might be sold, that's still 27 players. we can expect a busy and painful august mercato.

btw the numbers are good, calcioefinanza rarely make huge mistakes.

as I mentioned in few pages before, we have to offload 4 players, probably:
Khedira
Mandzu
Matuidi
Pjaca

this leaves us with 24 players in squad and I think its okay because Pellegrini is 20 y/o and de Ligt 19 y/o so they are not included in the limits.
But selling this players means we probably save around 25m in net wages, which is huge.

 

[edgardavids2608]

When is the deadline again? 10th?

 

[Akshen]

as I mentioned in few pages before, we have to offload 4 players, probably:
Khedira
Mandzu
Matuidi
Pjaca

this leaves us with 24 players in squad and I think its okay because Pellegrini is 20 y/o and de Ligt 19 y/o so they are not included in the limits.
But selling this players means we probably save around 25m in net wages, which is huge.

BTW this also explains the sale of Spinazzola - who would u replace him with from the current roster? Rugani probably the only option, but i personally feel safer having 5 cbs if one of them is Chiellini.

 

[Hust]

BTW this also explains the sale of Spinazzola - who would u replace him with from the current roster? Rugani probably the only option, but i personally feel safer having 5 cbs if one of them is Chiellini.

 

[italiacalcio10]

Aren't the wages to revenue ratio bit too high and secondly we need to grow our commercial revenue to solve our problems

1) Depends on what our revenues actually are. It's an estimate from an investment bank.
2) It is assuming no loan revenues, and no capital gains from the sale of smaller players like Favilli. (We earned a ton of these in final months of fiscal year)
3) The analysis uses blended wages incorporated 6 months without growth decree. I think management would be flexible here in their budgeting given the permanent step down.
4) And absolutely the sale of Matuidi, Khedira, Mandzukic & Perin are 100% necessary.

 

[s4tch]

...this leaves us with 24 players in squad and I think its okay because Pellegrini is 20 y/o and de Ligt 19 y/o so they are not included in the limits...

a friend of mine checked the other day: in the cl, only those players can be introduced on the b-list (u21 list basically) who serve the club for more than 2 years. not sure about the serie a list, will try to find relevant info later.

BTW this also explains the sale of Spinazzola - who would u replace him with from the current roster?..

selling spinazzola can be explained by financial motivations (see capital gain), but his sale only freed up one homegrown spot on either lists. his sale only saved us ~2,7m of the wage bill. books don't tell everything about a company, i'm not sitting in the club headquarters, but based on the books and considering sporting reasons, i wouldn't have sold spina at all. also, pellegrini might be his heir on the pitch (he still could be our vice-sandro), but he's not homegrown, so he simply occupies a similar slot on either lists like bentancur or khedira has. that's the issue with kean too: he's fucking ready for 20-30 matches per years, homegrown, no amortization, relatively low wages (even the rumored 2,3m which we offered and he reportedly accepted would have been easy on the books), and we sell him for peanuts. i just can't get how we operate this summer.

answering your question: dunno, really, it's hard. perin never made the cut, khedira probably served his time, so did mandzukic and higuain. then again, we wouldn't have enough nines in the squad if we sold both mandzu and higuain. as much as i still believe in his talent, dybala is an obvious choice, too.

as for rugani: i'd plusvalenza the shit out of him and bring up gozzi from the primavera. he looked pretty good against spal, 18, homegrown, let's see how he manages to work with the big boys. emre can is a decent emergency centre back. i'd also prefer having 5 cb's, but if we are so desperate for capital gain, it's rugani for me, before anybody else.

 

[athas]

Yeah basically. These are the assumptions:

1. They are using a ratio of player expenditures to sales, which is fine, but I would imagine management is a bit more sophisticated than that. The one thing that they are assuming is that management performs their analysis using a blended gross wage that includes the period up to December 31st before the growth decree takes place. I don't see why management wouldn't be willing to be a bit more aggressive here given that there is a clear, sustainable step-down on Dec 31.
2. The other thing is that they are using a sell-side financial report revenue forecast, so a lot depends on whether revenues for 19/20 before plusvalenza are greater or less than 500MM. Obviously a champions league final run would help a lot. We know for sure there is a 35M recurring step up from Adidas. Any other sponsorship deals we know about that are coming into effect in 2020?
3. Mandzukic, Khedira, Matuidi of course need to go because of the gross salary it will free up & the capital gains that at least 2 will provide. I'm not convinced Dybala needs to be sold because capital gains can be achieved from other sources.
4. They assume 0 loan revenues, which we know is never true. They also assume that we can't go and sell non-first team players. For example, we're at least getting 7M from Favilli next year. This year we earned substantial plusvalenza in the final months of the season from these deals.

Great explain as usual, but I still have some doubt:

- Even if we sell Mandzukic, Khedira and Matuidi, Perin, we still need to sell more to be safe. I think one or two of Rugani, Higuain and Dybala will be sold, depend on our last target of this mercato. Of course we can still make some sales in January if things go wrong, but I don't like those strange - sell high to buy high back later - moves . Example deals like Sturaro, Favilli - Romero, Spinazzola - Pellegrini. It mays make us safe with FFP one year, but it'll put more pressure to the year after.

- They calculated our revenue last year about 460M. I think they included Adidas's new deal, which already kicked in last January. For now, I know only that Adidas deal and some (chinese?) sponsorship replaced Cygame on shirt's back. Jeep and Betfair will rise theirs as well, but we haven't known the number.

- I think FFP don't count loan as revenue? I know we don't need cash after that ~200M bond issue raise, but for FFP is a different story.

- FFP is asserted over 3 year period. We are fine last year because our 16/17 registered great gain, but from this year, 16/17 doesn't take effect. Our 17/18 is -19M, our 18/19 is -20M? (not confirmed), so we need to be much more careful, one more negative year and we'll have big trouble.

 

[italiacalcio10]

Great explain as usual, but I still have some doubt:

- Even if we sell Mandzukic, Khedira and Matuidi, Perin, we still need to sell more to be safe. I think one or two of Rugani, Higuain and Dybala will be sold, depend on our last target of this mercato. Of course we can still make some sales in January if things go wrong, but I don't like those strange - sell high to buy high back later - moves . Example deals like Sturaro, Favilli - Romero, Spinazzola - Pellegrini. It mays make us safe with FFP one year, but it'll put more pressure to the year after.

- They calculated our revenue last year about 460M. I think they included Adidas's new deal, which already kicked in last January. For now, I know only that Adidas deal and some (chinese?) sponsorship replaced Cygame on shirt's back. Jeep and Betfair will rise theirs as well, but we haven't known the number.

- I think FFP don't count loan as revenue? I know we don't need cash after that ~200M bond issue raise, but for FFP is a different story.

- FFP is asserted over 3 year period. We are fine last year because our 16/17 registered great gain, but from this year, 16/17 doesn't take effect. Our 17/18 is -19M, our 18/19 is -20M? (not confirmed), so we need to be much more careful, one more negative year and we'll have big trouble.

1. Loans do count: They're temporary disposals and part of the transfer balance.
2. Net Income isn't FFP profit. FFP excludes certain items which include taxes, depreciation & amortization on non-player assets, certain provisions/write-downs, and a bunch of other misc items. Factoring this in FFP profit is at least EUR 5M for 17/18.
3. Also the Adidas deal just included a one time payment for 18/19 for 18M IIRC correctly. The full step up for this season (~36MM)

https://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/Tech/uefaorg/General/02/56/20/15/2562015_DOWNLOAD.pdf
See pages 83-95.

 

[MrMonkey]

Don't know money specifics like you guys here, but Sami, Mario, Blaise, and a few others need to go just because doesn't appear any playing time available for them. Seemed so promising the summer transfer after getter our primo CB but I'm so confused now what will be the final roster starting the year. Is it me or too much uncertainty this late in the mercato?

 

[Juventino[RUS]]

That's someone from tuz ?

 

[Rabiot]

Guys, please make Danilo thread
I’ve never watched him, not even single welcome video on youtube available

 

[Hust]

I smell a DA.

 

[X Æ A-12]

DA or hostile troll

@Mark, no time to think, BAN!

 

[spurdo]

lmao

Danilo and De Sciglio dominating that right flank

 

[CrimsonianKing]

Danilo to become our best signing this season

 

[Gian]

A 5 year deal wtf

 

[Stevie]

No memory of seeing him playing so I can't judge. Can't be any worst at defending that Cancelo. I know at one time he was highly rated so hopefully he can reach that potential with us.