I’ll take a look but will need to use a translator hahaha
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They say even if the Cancelo-Danilo deal happened and we sell Dybala for 80M, it'll still difficult to make another big tranfers unless we sell more: Higuain, Mandzukic, Khedira, Matuidi?
- They are using a ratio of player expenditures to sales, which is fine, but I would imagine management is a bit more sophisticated than that. The one thing that they are assuming is that management performs their analysis using a blended gross wage that includes the period up to December 31st before the growth decree takes place. I don't see why management wouldn't be willing to be a bit more aggressive here given that there is a clear, sustainable step-down on Dec 31.
- The other thing is that they are using a sell-side financial report revenue forecast, so a lot depends on whether revenues for 19/20 before plusvalenza are greater or less than 500MM. Obviously a champions league final run would help a lot. We know for sure there is a 35M recurring step up from Adidas. Any other sponsorship deals we know about that are coming into effect in 2020?
- Mandzukic, Khedira, Matuidi of course need to go because of the gross salary it will free up & the capital gains that at least 2 will provide. I'm not convinced Dybala needs to be sold because capital gains can be achieved from other sources.
- They assume 0 loan revenues, which we know is never true. They also assume that we can't go and sell non-first team players. For example, we're at least getting 7M from Favilli next year. This year we earned substantial plusvalenza in the final months of the season from these deals.
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