Russia - Ukraine Conflict 2022 (63 Viewers)

[Kopanja]

@Bjerknes According to this analysis Putin wants the separatists regions in Ukraine to stay part of Ukraine and to use them as leverage in his influence over Ukraine. The clip is from April 2021 when the tensions were high again.

Yep, that's a very known fact here in Ukraine. Russia doesn't want/need occupied parts:

1. Infrastructure is destroyed there.
2. Ecology is fucked also. This region was a main mining region and Russians just flooded mines, meaning toxic water is now going to rivers. It's an ecological disaster.
3. The most active and productive part of our population left, most of them to other parts of Ukraine (strange how it works, eh), and they've already settled.
4. Having this region in Ukraine would allow Russia to continue diversions and have some puppets here.
5. They've actually never wanted them in the first place, this region was monetary deficient even before 2014, but with local coal mines going obsolete it was already heading into depression.

 

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[Elvin]

So Ukraine waited, waited and waited and decided to attack the seperatists just when 150k Russian troops came to their border.

Jeez, Russian propaganda really is for retards.

 

[Bjerknes]

@Bjerknes According to this analysis Putin wants the separatists regions in Ukraine to stay part of Ukraine and to use them as leverage in his influence over Ukraine. The clip is from April 2021 when the tensions were high again.

Here’s some other analysis I thought was interesting.


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Nuke sniffer in the air

 

[kao_ray]

Here’s some other analysis I thought was interesting.


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Nuke sniffer in the air

My personal hunch feeling is that Putin is exploiting the whole situation and is trying to provoke something in Donbas for diplomatic gains. This whole situation looks opportunistic for him and he's assessing what he can gain from it.
It looks like he doesn't really care about the separatist regions or the people there.
Maybe his end goal is to make Ukraine free the fresh water pipeline to Crimea? Maybe he is planning to send more separatists further in to Ukraine? Or maybe he wants guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO?
I seriously doubt that there will be any major assault. Chaotic bombings at most. He'll lose more if there is a direct conflict with Ukraine. Even a proxy war by using the separatists will be enough to make him lose a lot on the diplomatic scene.

Air strikes on Kyiv sound like a sci-fi. This will be too much for everyone in Europe.

At least this is what my spidey-senses are telling me.

 

[Kopanja]

So Ukraine waited, waited and waited and decided to attack the seperatists just when 150k Russian troops came to their border.

Jeez, Russian propaganda really is for retards.

It worked in 08 with Georgia, it was almost identical - preemptive evacuation, intensive shelling to provoke reaction, and invasion after the reaction. Everyone and their mother knew that something was a bit off with the official version aka "Georgia - crazy agressor". Georgia was forced not to make a fuss about it.
I don't know if it's intended, but it's also adding insult to injury. EU leaders (I think Sarkozi was the most active one) had to play along with Putin and force Georgia to take the blame.
Putin is a fucking cunt and I've would've killed him with my bare hands if I could. But imagine seeing democratic leaders (I think Sarkozi was the most active) of the top EU countries with human rights, values, liberte, egalite etc. victim shame country you've attacked without any repercussions for you at all. No wonder he takes them for shmucks.
And it's also demoralizing as fuck to the people of Georgia.

 

[Elvin]

It worked in 08 with Georgia, it was almost identical - preemptive evacuation, intensive shelling to provoke reaction, and invasion after the reaction. Everyone and their mother knew that something was a bit off with the official version aka "Georgia - crazy agressor". Georgia was forced not to make a fuss about it.
I don't know if it's intended, but it's also adding insult to injury. EU leaders (I think Sarkozi was the most active one) had to play along with Putin and force Georgia to take the blame.
Putin is a fucking cunt and I've would've killed him with my bare hands if I could. But imagine seeing democratic leaders (I think Sarkozi was the most active) of the top EU countries with human rights, values, liberte, egalite etc. victim shame country you've attacked without any repercussions for you at all. No wonder he takes them for shmucks.
And it's also demoralizing as fuck to the people of Georgia.

Yes, Putin is probably the single most horrible person in the world atm. And probably the worst this century.

 

[Kopanja]

Yes, Putin is probably the single most horrible person in the world atm. And probably the worst this century.

Well, this category is a bit crowded. But he is up there with Al Assad and Sarri.

 

[Elvin]

Well, this category is a bit crowded. But he is up there with Al Assad and Sarri.

Well, the midget fuck Putler supports Assad too.

 

[Bjerknes]

Not good…


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My personal hunch feeling is that Putin is exploiting the whole situation and is trying to provoke something in Donbas for diplomatic gains. This whole situation looks opportunistic for him and he's assessing what he can gain from it.
It looks like he doesn't really care about the separatist regions or the people there.
Maybe his end goal is to make Ukraine free the fresh water pipeline to Crimea? Maybe he is planning to send more separatists further in to Ukraine? Or maybe he wants guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO?
I seriously doubt that there will be any major assault. Chaotic bombings at most. He'll lose more if there is a direct conflict with Ukraine. Even a proxy war by using the separatists will be enough to make him lose a lot on the diplomatic scene.

Air strikes on Kyiv sound like a sci-fi. This will be too much for everyone in Europe.

At least this is what my spidey-senses are telling me.

What you’re saying is certainly possible, but if he doesn’t really care about Donbas since it’s basically a useless area, then not sure what else he could really exploit without a major conflict. The whole NATO stuff and their other demands are simply not going to happen, which I’m sure he knows, so I don’t even know what else he could exploit. It just looks like they want to fundamentally change Ukraine with 200k troops ready to invade.

 

[Kopanja]

Not good…

Christ, who fucking writes news like that. At least what kind of invasion? Full-scale? Only in "republics"?

 

[Bjerknes]

Putin is sacrificing way too much in terms of political capital, military capital, and currency risk to just amass all these troops and then not do anything.

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Christ, who fucking writes news like that. At least what kind of invasion? Full-scale? Only in "republics"?

Who knows, maybe they didn’t specify. NBC news is a joke though.

 

[Dostoevsky]

Christ, who fucking writes news like that. At least what kind of invasion? Full-scale? Only in "republics"?

What's the % of Russians in Ukraine? Is there any roughly reliable number because I see so many different figures and I can't trust any.

 

[Kopanja]

What you’re saying is certainly possible, but if he doesn’t really care about Donbas since it’s basically a useless area, then not sure what else he could really exploit without a major conflict. The whole NATO stuff and their other demands are simply not going to happen, which I’m sure he knows, so I don’t even know what else he could exploit. It just looks like they want to fundamentally change Ukraine.

Recognizing independence "republics" is a loss for Russia, but at least you can present it as a win to Russian morons. Unfortunately, in this case, they might want to expand the borders of these "republics" according to the "constitutions" of these republics.
But the end goal is the whole of Ukraine for them, at least up to Kyiv.

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What's the % of Russians in Ukraine? Is there any roughly reliable number because I see so many different figures and I can't trust any.

Idk, but I wager not that many. There are a lot of Russian-speaking Ukrainians, almost half of the country, I am one of them. But I don't think there is more than 15 % of people identifying as Russians currently. In 2014 it was a whole different deal of course.

 

[Elvin]

Putin is sacrificing way too much in terms of political capital, military capital, and currency risk to just amass all these troops and then not do anything.

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Who knows, maybe they didn’t specify. NBC news is a joke though.

My two cents.

Putin has to be militaristic in order to stay in power because it literally is the only thing that allows him to stay in power, since every other area under his rule is in ruins.

So no, Putin isnt sacrificing anything, he has to war, in order to "unite the nation around himself".
This is hard for Westerners to grasp IMO.

 

[kao_ray]

Not good…


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What you’re saying is certainly possible, but if he doesn’t really care about Donbas since it’s basically a useless area, then not sure what else he could really exploit without a major conflict. The whole NATO stuff and their other demands are simply not going to happen, which I’m sure he knows, so I don’t even know what else he could exploit. It just looks like they want to fundamentally change Ukraine with 200k troops ready to invade.

Invasion in Ukraine under this circumstances looks like a Hollywood movie. He has nothing to gain really. If he wants to occupy a big portion of Ukraine, Ukrainians will give him hell and it won't worth it short term nor long term. But who knows maybe the dementia is catching him too just like Brandon.

 

[CaesarCod]

Christ, who fucking writes news like that. At least what kind of invasion? Full-scale? Only in "republics"?

You would think they would specify considering the source is probably made up..

 

[Bjerknes]

New livestream below.





Apparently, these terminator vehicles are used for urban warfare... not good.


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More manned tanks on the move near Belgorod.


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My two cents.

Putin has to be militaristic in order to stay in power because it literally is the only thing that allows him to stay in power, since every other area under his rule is in ruins.

So no, Putin isnt sacrificing anything, he has to war, in order to "unite the nation around himself".
This is hard for Westerners to grasp IMO.

It's not hard to grasp, we're very experienced with politicians who use crises to get ahead. That's all that they ever do, really. They also seem to like wars.

If Putin thinks he can invade Ukraine and force them to submit acting like it's 1940 again with no social media, no TicTok, no spy drones everywhere, information a click away, it could turn out to be a huge mistake by him. I can't imagine the younger Russians would be cool with seeing videos of Ukrainians being killed, or the families of Russian soldiers having dead loved ones in a large scale war in Ukraine. So even if he's a total dictator, he's risking a shit ton.

If he actually ends up going through with this, he's out of his mind on a legacy rampage.

 

[Bjerknes]

Even more bizarre news.



Seems like a false flag or US Embassy screwing with Russia? so weird..


Event: According to media sources, there have been threats of attacks against shopping centers, railway and metro stations, and other public gathering places in major urban areas, including Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as in areas of heightened tension along the Russian border with Ukraine.

Actions to Take:

• Monitor local and international media for updates.
• Avoid crowds.
• Notify friends and family of your safety.
• Be aware of your surroundings.
• Stay alert in locations frequented by tourists/Westerners.
• Review your personal security plans.
• Carry proper identification, including a U.S. passport with a current Russian visa.
• Have evacuation plans that do not rely on U.S. government assistance.

 

[Jäger]

Looks like Putin and Macron working towards a ceasefire

 

[Bjerknes]

Looks like Putin and Macron working towards a ceasefire

One that nobody believes is actually going to happen.