Mafia 2018! (1 Viewer)

[radekas]

Thought about it a bit more. Tomice might have been recruited, he's the most obvious recruitee. So we're fucked.

That is a risky strategy. Tomice is a liekly recruitment due to the first day, the jailing is irrelevant, Tomice knows as little as every other C.

We need to look at voting patterns. Fairly simple.

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You guys are interestingly fast to agree after going at each other for no reason on day 1 and 2.


Tomice might be a recruitment target but there's only 33% chance that they recruit who they want since they don't have a D or BG.

 

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[pitbull]

We risk the jailer getting recruited as we speak or already being recruited. As soon as the G's knows his name, the jailor can tried to be recruited by them.

This is not a good strategy at all. Back to only replying to voting and patterns.

so we got 8 Cs, out of whom one can be recruited, jailer can be any one of them. until Gs know who the jailer is, their chances to recruit jailer sucks, they won't waste a recruitment on such low odds and even if they do, there's only a 12% chance they get it right.

if the jailer picks out his target before jailing time and revels himself via jailing, there's nothing the Gs can do, we got a vote coming from a genuine C we can unite around. debating this stuff via voting patterns is a suicide mission, we've got 5 Gs out there and it's all guess work, they'll swing any vote no matter how strong the argument unless we're 100% sure that the Cs are united

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You guys are interestingly fast to agree after going at each other for no reason on day 1 and 2.


Tomice might be a recruitment target but there's only 33% chance that they recruit who they want since they don't have a D or BG.

lol, we're not agreeing at all. I want the jailer to vote and reveal his identity through jailing (knowing he'll probably be recruited/whacked afterwards) and us to unite around that vote. Maddy wants to look at voting patterns

 

[Maddy]

You guys are interestingly fast to agree after going at each other for no reason on day 1 and 2.


Tomice might be a recruitment target but there's only 33% chance that they recruit who they want since they don't have a D or BG.

I don't wanna lose. Can't keep this bitching going. Anyways, not that hard to agree that Tomice is a liekly recruitment target.

 

[pitbull]

@Fred can you confirm that the jailer can't be a g?

 

[Maddy]

so we got 8 Cs, out of whom one can be recruited, jailer can be any one of them. until Gs know who the jailer is, their chances to recruit jailer sucks, they won't waste a recruitment on such low odds and even if they do, there's only a 12% chance they get it right.

if the jailer picks out his target before jailing time and revels himself via jailing, there's nothing the Gs can do, we got a vote coming from a genuine C we can unite around. debating this stuff via voting patterns is a suicide mission, we've got 5 Gs out there and it's all guess work, they'll swing any vote no matter how strong the argument unless we're 100% sure that the Cs are united

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lol, we're not agreeing at all. I want the jailer to vote and reveal his identity through jailing (knowing he'll probably be recruited/whacked afterwards) and us to unite around that vote. Maddy wants to look at voting patterns

And if the jailer is wrong. Everyone will have voted on a C and we have lost.

I'm not gonna follow this strategy.

 

[pitbull]

And if the jailer is wrong. Everyone will have voted on a C and we have lost.

I'm not gonna follow this strategy.

then he is wrong, his guess is as good as any, but at least we got the Cs united unlike in other scenarios. if we have a C jailed today and Gs have already recruited, voting will be 6Cs vs 5Gs, the odds for Cs are non-existent at this point.

for this to work, we need everybody voting before jailing time so that the jailer can mix in and cast his vote we'll later unite around. we also need the jailer to cast his vote (please, pick a G) and then today jail the next person in participant list.

f.e. if I was the jailer, I'd jail Maddy as I am 6 and Maddy is 7. If ALC is jailer, he'd jail Klin, as he is 17, 18 blondu is dead and Klin is 1.

can we agree about this? @Klin @Monty @radekas @campionesidd @Tomice @Basel93 @Wittl @ADP1897 @Jethro @ALC

 

[ADP1897]

then he is wrong, his guess is as good as any, but at least we got the Cs united unlike in other scenarios. if we have a C jailed today and Gs have already recruited, voting will be 6Cs vs 5Gs, the odds for Cs are non-existent at this point.

Should have done that yesterday, could still works, but it a big gamble.

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[Monty]

Ouuff I'm back now
Couldn't log back on for a minute
Anyway i sleep after this plate and a dart
I vote Kyle

fuck it, I'm going Kyle too

Ok so this is how the Kyle thing started yesterday

We now know Fresh was a C

But what prompted Pitbull to give this momentum?

So that is 1 data point

 

[pitbull]

Should have done that yesterday, could still works, but it a big gamble.

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we're still fucked dude, unless the Cs have something reliable to vote about, Gs will swing any vote. apart from this strategy I think our chances to survive today are <1%. if someone picks a target and all C's vote it, those chances increase to ~40%.

 

[Monty]

2nd data point is the actual votes

we have the subset who voted for blondu {tomice, kyle, ALC, radekas, championsid}

and kyle {pitbull, basel93, adp, chmpionsid}

The only common person is championsid

There is a high probability there is a G in that data set:

tomice - eevryone thinks he is a C?
kyle is dead (lol)
ALC is still deflecting and attacking me back
radekas - i dont know
basel and adp - both seem like noobs to me
pitbull- as i posted earlier , started the kyle momentum
chmapionsid - somehow managed to get 2 people lynched

 

[ADP1897]

we're still fucked dude, unless the Cs have something reliable to vote about, Gs will swing any vote. apart from this strategy I think our chances to survive today are <1%

But that's important to notice too..
If yesterday we do not lynch anyone, we would have 1 person advantage, if today we screwup again, we can drag the game until tommorow. Why hurried the worst possible outcome. Tbh i don't notice your way to pick the jailer, could use it for next time

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[Tomice]

Thought about it a bit more. Tomice might have been recruited, he's the most obvious recruitee. So we're fucked.

I was Jailed yesterday. I couldn't have been recruited unless they did so on day one. and they didn't

 

[Monty]

then he is wrong, his guess is as good as any, but at least we got the Cs united unlike in other scenarios. if we have a C jailed today and Gs have already recruited, voting will be 6Cs vs 5Gs, the odds for Cs are non-existent at this point.

for this to work, we need everybody voting before jailing time so that the jailer can mix in and cast his vote we'll later unite around. we also need the jailer to cast his vote (please, pick a G) and then today jail the next person in participant list.

f.e. if I was the jailer, I'd jail Maddy as I am 6 and Maddy is 7. If ALC is jailer, he'd jail Klin, as he is 17, 18 blondu is dead and Klin is 1.

can we agree about this? @Klin @Monty @radekas @campionesidd @Tomice @Basel93 @Wittl @ADP1897 @Jethro @ALC

what?? what kind of strategy is this , it isnt coherent and based on anything...go down the participant list?? and hope jailer picks a G ??

either walk me down the steps in a step by step manner with odds or this is a G attempt to manipulate us

 

[pitbull]

I was Jailed yesterday. I couldn't have been recruited unless they did so on day one. and they didn't

You couldve been recruited this morning or yesterday morning no? Gs can recruit any time they want, no? It's unlikely, bit you are not 100% C and thats not enough to unite the rest of Cs. Jailer is 100%C

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what?? what kind of strategy is this , it isnt coherent and based on anything...go down the participant list?? and hope jailer picks a G ??

either walk me down the steps in a step by step manner with odds or this is a G attempt to manipulate us

look, the one big advantage Gs have in Mafia is being united and knowing people identities. if we can get the Cs to unite, we just might survive this day. what would a G possibly gain from all Cs voting the same? that is the only thing they need to avoid, as soon as one C goes in another direction, Gs have majority, can lynch a C and win the game.

 

[ADP1897]

then he is wrong, his guess is as good as any, but at least we got the Cs united unlike in other scenarios. if we have a C jailed today and Gs have already recruited, voting will be 6Cs vs 5Gs, the odds for Cs are non-existent at this point.

for this to work, we need everybody voting before jailing time so that the jailer can mix in and cast his vote we'll later unite around. we also need the jailer to cast his vote (please, pick a G) and then today jail the next person in participant list.

f.e. if I was the jailer, I'd jail Maddy as I am 6 and Maddy is 7. If ALC is jailer, he'd jail Klin, as he is 17, 18 blondu is dead and Klin is 1.

can we agree about this? @Klin @Monty @radekas @campionesidd @Tomice @Basel93 @Wittl @ADP1897 @Jethro @ALC

Still wont do imo..
What if maddy is jailed, but you're not the one who jailed him? The G could claimed that he's the real jailer, and someone else jailed maddy. It's abit of stretch.. let's wait another 6hour, it seems most peoplel online at that time, if we couldn't reach a consensus, then i'm all for it.

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[Tomice]

I won't be much around until late noon but I urge everyone to look at my post about maddy and klin once,twice or however many times it takes for it to sink in.

Those are the two we must vote on today.

Not one of them quote my post or directly countered anything in it, just deflecting. Maddy disappeared somewhere two days in a row and today it's klin turn?

Look at the inconsistencies in their posts and how shaky their logic progression is since game start and add to that Monty posts and you will get the picture.

 

[ADP1897]

I won't be much around until late noon but I urge everyone to look at my post about maddy and klin once,twice or however many times it takes for it to sink in.

Those are the two we must vote on today.

Not one of them quote my post or directly countered anything in it, just deflecting. Maddy disappeared somewhere two days in a row and today it's klin turn?

Look at the inconsistencies in their posts and how shaky their logic progression is since game start and add to that Monty posts and you will get the picture.

I already said it before.. the way klin ask people to jump ship on blondu is suspicious. Tbh i just realized it today, but he's ghosting after that time.

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[Tomice]

You couldve been recruited this morning or yesterday morning no? Gs can recruit any time they want, no? It's unlikely, bit you are not 100% C and thats not enough to unite the rest of Cs. Jailer is 100%C

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look, the one big advantage Gs have in Mafia is being united and knowing people identities. if we can get the Cs to unite, we just might survive this day.

The C's should be untied by seeing how obvious it is both maddy and Klin are G's. It's really simple.

You can all find as many alternative theories as you want but end of the day we most probably won't have anything better to go by.

 

[pitbull]

Still wont do imo..
What if maddy is jailed, but you're not the one who jailed him? The G could claimed that he's the real jailer, and someone else jailed maddy. It's abit of stretch.. let's wait another 6hour, it seems most peoplel online at that time, if we couldn't reach a consensus, then i'm all for it.

then the jailer is a fucking idiot and Cs deserve to loose the game for having so many incompetent players in their team I'm basically giving the jailer, whoever he is, the scepter to be king of Cs for one day, hoping he doesn't fuck up.

 

[Tomice]

We can also talk about uniting the C's, pitbull suggestion isn't bad but we need to think it through