Mafia 2015.5 || 'Tuz: The Beginning (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter piotrr
- Start date
.
I sure get the vibes in the past hour 
Ya, what you did was perfectly logical. Even though I was hating you at the time for putting me in such suspense, your theory was logical. Without the benefit of hindsight, yesterday we had to take out Matt.
You remember when you asked me why I hadn't voted for Alen yet. I wanted to see what JJ would do, from the very start of the day I've been saying that voting for X or Matt would give us the most answers(ok i was terribly wrong about X in hindsight) , the one thing I wanted to see from Matt was if he'd go after Alen. When he didn't, it became quite obvious what had happened on day 1.
Anyway, we shouldn't lose sight of the target tomorrow. It has to be Matt.
You remember when you asked me why I hadn't voted for Alen yet. I wanted to see what JJ would do, from the very start of the day I've been saying that voting for X or Matt would give us the most answers(ok i was terribly wrong about X in hindsight) , the one thing I wanted to see from Matt was if he'd go after Alen. When he didn't, it became quite obvious what had happened on day 1.
Anyway, we shouldn't lose sight of the target tomorrow. It has to be Matt.
It was 45 mins or so before the deadline. Prior to that, I had no preference between either one of Matt/Alen/Fred or ALC/Fresh/Maddy. In the last hour when it appeared that it was going to be one of the former three, i decided to think whose death was gonna be the most beneficial regardless of their role. Even then i had no idea which one was a likelier g. It was, as i said multiple times, only a matter of expected value, and i still believe that Matt's death would have given us more (not compared to what we have now, but compared to the situation in which Alen was a c).
So here's another thought: All Alen, Fred and Matt are Gs. I'm 100% sure that Matt is a G so he's clearly out tomorrow. But there is nothing to clear @Fred yet. If Alen's the only g who tried to save Matt, his vote would have still only made the vote count 5:5 for x vs Matt, so gs needed another vote to save Matt. Otherwise Alen's vote was gonna be absolutely nonsensical: a hatpick between Matt and x. If Matt is chosen (a g), Alen is in danger. If X is chosen (a c), Alen is in danger. So i believe Fred is probably another g. He may be a c still, but i think chances are more he's also a g alongside with Alen and Matt.
- - - Updated - - -
Actually not, your theory is wrong only in that you thought Matt was a c. It cannot be true. Alen wouldn't risk his life by saving a c. But if Matt is a g, as i said above, Fred is actually likely to be another g as well.
- - - Updated - - -
Btw, sure c's are the intersection of those who voted Matt yesterday and Alen today: Voller, Radekas, and Woody plus X. If Fred is also a g, we can't necessarily infer that those who voted Alen today are Cs or those who voted Fred are gs.
- - - Updated - - -
Also @Fred I think it's safe for me to admit I got it wrong with my theory. Of course you and Alen could've had this planned but I think that is too crazy even for you two this early.
but I think that is too crazy even for you two this early.
- - - Updated - - -
Btw, sure c's are the intersection of those who voted Matt yesterday and Alen today: Voller, Radekas, and Woody plus X. If Fred is also a g, we can't necessarily infer that those who voted Alen today are Cs or those who voted Fred are gs.
