Equality of points after the group matches
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the
following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine the rankings:
a) higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the
teams in question;
b) superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in
question;
c) higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams
in question;
d) higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played
among the teams in question;
e) if, after applying criteria a) to d) to several teams, two or more teams still have
an equal ranking, the criteria a) to d) will be reapplied to determine the ranking 7
of these teams. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria f) to j)
apply;
f) superior goal difference in all group matches;
g) higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
h) higher number of goals scored away from home in all group matches;
i) fair play ranking in all group matches;
j) drawing of lots.
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So, yes, if Spain wins tonight, preferably 3:0 or more, a 2:2 between Spain and Croatia will mean that Italy's out.