Do you think Buffon will be any good when he returns? (2 Viewers)

[Martin]

Two points here. One, it doesn't have to be Real Madrid. I just mentioned them because they were easiest to remember. There are many cases of players who have been flops but have later been showed confidence. The reason is simple, you don't have to have scored 20 or more goals per season for people to think that you could do it.

I think this highlights the entire point of my argument. You and other members here are saying, 'You can't possibly say that someone can score over 20 goals if he hadn't done so already'. Clearly, this statement is ludicrous. I remember when I first saw Messi playing, I think it was in 06, I was sure this guy would one day score over 20 goals per season.

He had never done so. He was too young, anyway. But his talent was a good indicator that he has the capacity to do so.

The analogy is completely wrong. Messi at that time was a talented young player who hadn't yet demonstrated his ability. Amauri is a 29 year old player who has demonstrated again and again that he isn't capable. You can't compare someone who's never had the chance with someone who's already tried and failed over and over again.

I hope we have established that you don't need to have scored 20 goals in the past in order to encourage people to believe that you will do so in the future.

Second, you are classifying past statistics with past information; you are putting them in the same group. Which is why you assume my argument is self-defeating. The problem is not that I'm contradicting myself, but that you are making an invalid assumption.

My argument was that past results(goals per season) is not a good indicator for predicting the future. Meaning that the fact that Amauri never scored over 20 goals per season is not a good reason to say that he never will. However, if you watched Amauri play and believed that he has the right attributes to score many goals, you could easily make a statement about what could possibly happen.(this is not the same as a prediction.)

Let me see if I understand this. You are saying that past goalscoring records are not a good predictor of future goalscoring. However, "the right abilities", based on past performance, is a good predictor of future goalscoring.

In a country where the president has to be white, male, and Christian. It will be impossible to say that Dikembe Matumbo could be the president. This is a very simplified example but you get the point.

Are you saying that, based on past observations, you don't think Dikembe Matumbo "could" become white, male and Christian? You can't do that, you're using the past to predict the future.

How can it be falsifiable? That's exactly how it is different from making a prediction. A prediction can only be falsified in hindsight while the statement I made is simply our of purely subjective reasoning. It can be falsified only if you give me reasons why someone with Amauri's physique, speed, fitness, positioning cannot finish the season with 20 or more goals.

So it can't be falsified then. What you claim is that these attributes are a guarantee of competency. And if a player with those attributes doesn't score 20 goals it means he didn't, it doesn't mean couldn't have. Therefore there is no way to disprove your claim. Therefore the claim has no value.

I could have scored 20 goals myself. The fact that I didn't just means I didn't want to. But I could have. You can no more prove me wrong than I can you about Amauri.

 

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[Martin]

Btw, it's entirely possible that Dikembe Matumbo could be a white, male and Christian. In fact, if he knew it would make him president, he very well might go for it. Michael Jackson did it, and he settled for being a pop star.

 

[rounder]

The analogy is completely wrong. Messi at that time was a talented young player who hadn't yet demonstrated his ability. Amauri is a 29 year old player who has demonstrated again and again that he isn't capable. You can't compare someone who's never had the chance with someone who's already tried and failed over and over again.

Great, so you're saying that if I find just one example of a player who at the age of say 30, having accomplished nothing in his career, suddenly scores over 20 goals per season, then you would be wrong?

I don't have a very good memory but here's one just for the fuck of it.

Luca Toni.

Let me see if I understand this. You are saying that past goalscoring records are not a good predictor of future goalscoring. However, "the right abilities", based on past performance, is a good predictor of future goalscoring.

The 'right abilities' are a better potential indicator of success/failure. They are not predictors which I so adamantly tried to show was my entire point.

Are you saying that, based on past observations, you don't think Dikembe Matumbo "could" become white, male and Christian? You can't do that, you're using the past to predict the future.

Nope, I'm using the present to indicate what the future should could hold. The fact that he's black means that the probability of him becoming the president of this country is 0. Again, I'm not predicting anything.

So it can't be falsified then. What you claim is that these attributes are a guarantee of competency. And if a player with those attributes doesn't score 20 goals it means he didn't, it doesn't mean couldn't have. Therefore there is no way to disprove your claim. Therefore the claim has no value.

I could have scored 20 goals myself. The fact that I didn't just means I didn't want to. But I could have. You can no more prove me wrong than I can you about Amauri.

This is a subjective probabilistic statement. You're confusing it with a classic or empirical probabilistic statement in which I am required to provide you with tangible numbers and figures.

It's simple an assumption I'm free to make if I think I have good reasons.

Opinions are unfalsifiable, does that mean they are useless?

 

[rounder]

Btw, it's entirely possible that Dikembe Matumbo could be a white, male and Christian. In fact, if he knew it would make him president, he very well might go for it. Michael Jackson did it, and he settled for being a pop star.

Thank you for seeing the bigger picture, Martin.


The only way you can be president is if you were born with a penis extending from your ear that measures up to 12 inches and contains a curvature of 33.34 degrees to the right. Only then, can you be president.


Can Matumbo still be president?

 

[The Curr]

Does this thread still have anything to do with Buffon?

 

[Martin]

Great, so you're saying that if I find just one example of a player who at the age of say 30, having accomplished nothing in his career, suddenly scores over 20 goals per season, then you would be wrong?

I don't have a very good memory but here's one just for the fuck of it.

Luca Toni.

I don't understand your fascination with extremes. Yes, "what if Amauri is a Luca Toni", that's a perfectly coherent to say, but it's pretty much equal to saying "what if I win the lottery this week". The mere fact that something isn't strictly impossible doesn't mean it's at all likely. Just how many 29-year-old strikers have turned out to be Luca Toni would you say? Out of all of them?

Is it starting to dawn on you why I suggested your statement was empty? It brings nothing new to the table, it doesn't tell us anything.

The 'right abilities' are a better potential indicator of success/failure. They are not predictors which I so adamantly tried to show was my entire point.

"potential indicator of success/failure" is exactly what "predictor" means, and it doesn't mean you are the new Elvin. Stop being so scared of words.

You are making a judgment on the goalscoring ability of a player without taking into account the single most relevant fact, his goalscoring record. It's absurd.

This is a subjective probabilistic statement. You're confusing it with a classic or empirical probabilistic statement in which I am required to provide you with tangible numbers and figures.

It's simple an assumption I'm free to make if I think I have good reasons.

Opinions are unfalsifiable, does that mean they are useless?

Sure, and it's my opinion that I could be as good as Pippo. Does that mean it's a useless opinion?

 

[Martin]

Does this thread still have anything to do with Buffon?

Read and find out.

 

[rounder]

I don't understand your fascination with extremes. Yes, "what if Amauri is a Luca Toni", that's a perfectly coherent to say, but it's pretty much equal to saying "what if I win the lottery this week". The mere fact that something isn't strictly impossible doesn't mean it's at all likely. Just how many 29-year-old strikers have turned out to be Luca Toni would you say? Out of all of them?

Is it starting to dawn on you why I suggested your statement was empty? It brings nothing new to the table, it doesn't tell us anything

It's an opinion. The only thing it brings to the table is what I think could happen.
If you think that's empty, then that's up to you. A lot if not most of the posts made in this forum are strictly opinions and offer nothing new to the table. So what?

"potential indicator of success/failure" is exactly what "predictor" means, and it doesn't mean you are the new Elvin. Stop being so scared of words.

You are making a judgment on the goalscoring ability of a player without taking into account the single most relevant fact, his goalscoring record. It's absurd.

They aren't the same.

No, it's not absurd. If Napoli had several bad seasons in a row but I saw something in the team that just might make them finish at 5th place, am I absurd at not taking into account past records? Can't I voice my personal opinion if it doesn't add any value to a discussion? Is this making any sense to you?


Sure, and it's my opinion that I could be as good as Pippo. Does that mean it's a useless opinion?


No, of course not. Maybe you are as good as Pippo. To you, that statement is more worthy than anything in the world if you truly believe it. Who am I to tell you otherwise?

 

[Martin]

A discussion with you can't just stick to the single point, can it? Why the heck are we discussing whether or not opinions have value, how the hell did we get here?

What you originally wrote didn't look like "just an opinion", but if you say it is, fine, no need to go on.

 

[Nomuken]

If he does bad first couple games during January we'll know his prime days are over it's a win win if we sell or keep him.

 

[Salvatore]

If he does bad first couple games during January we'll know his prime days are over

Or, he's finding his feet again after a long term injury.

 

[Nomuken]

Shouldn't take long it should be like riding a bicycle with the amount of XP he has, if that's the case.

 

[Salvatore]

No matter the experience, it will still take him a while to fully find his form. I don't know the severity of the pain, but back problems should be a big concern for goalkeepers.

I don't think being the best goalkeeper in the world is comparable to riding a bike.

 

[rounder]

No matter the experience, it will still take him a while to fully find his form. I don't know the severity of the pain, but back problems should be a big concern for goalkeepers.

I don't think being the best goalkeeper in the world is comparable to riding a bike.

Very true.

 

[Nomuken]

The back issue is going to hold him back than. I bet his back problems is never going to leave the guy, he won't ever wip out the Acrobats If he needed to make that crucial save; I just hope the best for him when he comes back but he needs to pick it up or Thats when Storari steps in.

 

[blondu]

i'm sure he'll gain his old form and the starting position with no problems. Once he will have the curva behind him chanting his name, he cannot have bad games

 

[Nomuken]

We conceded a shit load of goals last season I wish to believe it was due to his back or poor D line

 

[Red]

You're speaking a whole heap of shit around a variety of threads today.

 

[blondu]

We conceded a shit load of goals last season I wish to believe it was due to his back or poor D line

no way man...buffon had a 6.5 season in my books..

 

[rounder]

@ RED