Do you think Buffon will be any good when he returns? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Martin
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In this case, considering the nature of this guy's guess, it was a stupid one.
Buddy, I have no intention of making a good impression of myself with you.
Really classy of you, bravo!
I don't think you are an idiot, at least yet. Although I find it quite funny you can't admit your guess was simply wrong.
Buddy, I have no intention of making a good impression of myself with you.
Really classy of you, bravo!
I don't think you are an idiot, at least yet. Although I find it quite funny you can't admit your guess was simply wrong.
He had scored 12 goals in half a season over 18 months ago, at the time of this guess. Since then he'd been absolutely terrible at scoring goals. And neither does he have a strong history of scoring goals that one could point to in order to argue that "he's just in a slump". In any event, a season and a half is a really really long time to be in a slump.
Was it idiotic? I don't know why you would want to suggest names for me to call you.
I didn't say that, I said t was wishful thinking.
Was it idiotic? I don't know why you would want to suggest names for me to call you.
I didn't say that, I said t was wishful thinking.
It would seem so wouldn't it? But it's actually not ludicrous at all. If you take anything of David Hume's philosophy seriously, you'd be siding with me on this one.
We cannot predict the future by analyzing past events with full certainty. That was the only point I was making and it's a valid one at that. You don't have to believe me; of course you can go on believing that since Inzaghi scored 20 goals last year and the year before that and the one before that; he'll probably score more than Amauri this year.
But there are too many factors that you aren't taking into account. Inzaghi's age for example will slow his scoring capabilities down. Regression to the mean is another theory you're missing here.
Perhaps he just had a few good seasons but his numbers will eventually balance themselves out to say 15 goals a season which is what he truly averages.
In this case, considering the nature of this guy's guess, it was a stupid one.
Buddy, I have no intention of making a good impression of myself with you.
Really classy of you, bravo!
I don't think you are an idiot, at least yet. Although I find it quite funny you can't admit your guess was simply wrong.
Buddy, I have no intention of making a good impression of myself with you.
Really classy of you, bravo!
I don't think you are an idiot, at least yet. Although I find it quite funny you can't admit your guess was simply wrong.
I did.
It was ludicrous and I was hardly the only one to think so. Plus your prediction, despite how much you battle against it being called a prediction, absolutely failed.
To dismiss past performance as a predictor of future performance is unheard of. No manager goes out buying new players by saying "first, let's ignore everything they have done in their careers until now". And especially when the numbers were as clear as they were. Maybe if you compare Iaquinta and Amauri you can reasonably argue that their past record doesn't give a strong conclusion about who is likely to score more goals, but Amauri and Trezeguet? It was never even a contest.
It was ludicrous and I was hardly the only one to think so. Plus your prediction, despite how much you battle against it being called a prediction, absolutely failed.
To dismiss past performance as a predictor of future performance is unheard of. No manager goes out buying new players by saying "first, let's ignore everything they have done in their careers until now". And especially when the numbers were as clear as they were. Maybe if you compare Iaquinta and Amauri you can reasonably argue that their past record doesn't give a strong conclusion about who is likely to score more goals, but Amauri and Trezeguet? It was never even a contest.
If that was the case then what about players like Sneijder and Robben? Weren't they considered flops at Madrid. So if you were a manager at either Bayern and Inter, surely, you must have been a complete idiot to even think of buying these players. Their past performances have been shit, therefore, it would be a lot wiser to spend the money elsewhere.
Then let's take the Amauri-Trezeguet example. If you asked me who is likely to score more goals next year or the year after that, my answer would be: I don't know.
Here's why. Because I recognize that there are too many factors to take into consideration and there's no way to draw accurate conclusions from past data in football.
So even though I don't necessarily believe that Amauri will score more goals than Trez, I do hold that it is just as possible that he will.
Amazingly, you're still confident that what I made was a prediction. That to me is just astonishing.
So if I told you, 'I think this kid could become the president of the United States', is it the same as saying 'I think this kid will become the president of the United States?'
Notice that in the first case, I'm allowing room for error. I am saying he 'could' become the president. Meaning that there are indicators that suggest he might one day be president. This is very different from saying that I think he will become president.
Also, this is not an empty statement either. I don't think any striker in the world could score 20 or more goals. I'm open to the possibility that Amauri could score 20 or more goals because of several reasons which I will not mention anymore.
Then let's take the Amauri-Trezeguet example. If you asked me who is likely to score more goals next year or the year after that, my answer would be: I don't know.
Here's why. Because I recognize that there are too many factors to take into consideration and there's no way to draw accurate conclusions from past data in football.
So even though I don't necessarily believe that Amauri will score more goals than Trez, I do hold that it is just as possible that he will.
Amazingly, you're still confident that what I made was a prediction. That to me is just astonishing.
So if I told you, 'I think this kid could become the president of the United States', is it the same as saying 'I think this kid will become the president of the United States?'
Notice that in the first case, I'm allowing room for error. I am saying he 'could' become the president. Meaning that there are indicators that suggest he might one day be president. This is very different from saying that I think he will become president.
Also, this is not an empty statement either. I don't think any striker in the world could score 20 or more goals. I'm open to the possibility that Amauri could score 20 or more goals because of several reasons which I will not mention anymore.
As a manager you would have very good reason to be skeptical about Sneijder and Robben, because it is far more common for players to flop once they have flopped once, rather than to bounce back. But here there is also the mitigating factor that flopping at Real Madrid is less informing, because everyone knows that club chews and spits out players without regard for the fact that many of the discarded ones are still very good, despite failing by RM's standards. On top of that, Robben had already had a solid career prior to this, and one or two flop seasons at RM doesn't change that. And last of all Sneijder and Robben weren't really flops at all, they were superseded by other players at a club where the competition is merciless, but nevertheless playing quite well when given the chance. Selling them was a strategic decision to bet on one player over another, not a desperate attempt to mitigate a flop.
I think your argument is self defeating. You said that past performance isn't a good predictor of the future, therefore your statement about Amauri's capability of scoring 20 goals is perfectly reasonable. Then you say that you made this judgment based on his many qualities, such as "aerial ability" if I remember correctly, which are precisely based on his past performance. How did you gain this knowledge of his ability if not from his past performance? And if past performance is no basis for prediction then you have no basis for saying that he has this aerial ability, because it's merely an observation from the past.
You have not convinced me that this is not an empty statement. What exactly would it mean that someone "could" become the president and how would you judge if this statement was correct or not?
As I see it, the only reasonable way to judge the validity of a "he could have done it" statement is in hindsight, examining whether his professed competency allowed him to come close to his goal, and if not whether there were mitigating circumstances (eg. injury, for an athlete) that prevented it.
Otherwise how else could you make it falsifiable?
And by these standards it doesn't look remotely likely at the moment that Amauri will in fact score 20 goals or even 15, which would make your judgment seem a good one.
I think your argument is self defeating. You said that past performance isn't a good predictor of the future, therefore your statement about Amauri's capability of scoring 20 goals is perfectly reasonable. Then you say that you made this judgment based on his many qualities, such as "aerial ability" if I remember correctly, which are precisely based on his past performance. How did you gain this knowledge of his ability if not from his past performance? And if past performance is no basis for prediction then you have no basis for saying that he has this aerial ability, because it's merely an observation from the past.
You have not convinced me that this is not an empty statement. What exactly would it mean that someone "could" become the president and how would you judge if this statement was correct or not?
As I see it, the only reasonable way to judge the validity of a "he could have done it" statement is in hindsight, examining whether his professed competency allowed him to come close to his goal, and if not whether there were mitigating circumstances (eg. injury, for an athlete) that prevented it.
Otherwise how else could you make it falsifiable?
And by these standards it doesn't look remotely likely at the moment that Amauri will in fact score 20 goals or even 15, which would make your judgment seem a good one.
Two points here. One, it doesn't have to be Real Madrid. I just mentioned them because they were easiest to remember. There are many cases of players who have been flops but have later been showed confidence. The reason is simple, you don't have to have scored 20 or more goals per season for people to think that you could do it.
I think this highlights the entire point of my argument. You and other members here are saying, 'You can't possibly say that someone can score over 20 goals if he hadn't done so already'. Clearly, this statement is ludicrous. I remember when I first saw Messi playing, I think it was in 06, I was sure this guy would one day score over 20 goals per season.
He had never done so. He was too young, anyway. But his talent was a good indicator that he has the capacity to do so.
I'm aware that Amauri doesn't even come close to Messi talent-wise, and that is an understatement. This brings me to my second point.
I hope we have established that you don't need to have scored 20 goals in the past in order to encourage people to believe that you will do so in the future.
Second, you are classifying past statistics with past information; you are putting them in the same group. Which is why you assume my argument is self-defeating. The problem is not that I'm contradicting myself, but that you are making an invalid assumption.
My argument was that past results(goals per season) is not a good indicator for predicting the future. Meaning that the fact that Amauri never scored over 20 goals per season is not a good reason to say that he never will. However, if you watched Amauri play and believed that he has the right attributes to score many goals, you could easily make a statement about what could possibly happen.(this is not the same as a prediction.)
In a country where the president has to be white, male, and Christian. It will be impossible to say that Dikembe Matumbo could be the president. This is a very simplified example but you get the point. When I say Amauri could be a good striker, I'm just saying he has what it takes. I'm not saying that he will be a good striker. And not anyone can be a good striker. Some players lack even the most basic qualities a striker should have and therefore cannot be score over 20 goals a season.
How can it be falsifiable? That's exactly how it is different from making a prediction. A prediction can only be falsified in hindsight while the statement I made is simply our of purely subjective reasoning. It can be falsified only if you give me reasons why someone with Amauri's physique, speed, fitness, positioning cannot finish the season with 20 or more goals.
You don't need to use numbers for that.
There is nothing wrong with his positioning. In fact, his positioning is quite good. Instinct for goal? Maybe, but I would just add that his finishing is terrible for a striker; which is I think the only reason he's done badly for this long.
I'm kind of bored talking about Amauri. It's like if I make a statement, 'This year might be very good for Italian football because of several reasons.' Then half way through the season, people start popping out of nowhere and tell me ludicrous I was for saying that. Again, not even trying to recognize that my statement wasn't a prediction.
And you know what, let's say it's not falsifiable just for the sake of argument. Does it really matter?
Give me a break.
I'm kind of bored talking about Amauri. It's like if I make a statement, 'This year might be very good for Italian football because of several reasons.' Then half way through the season, people start popping out of nowhere and tell me ludicrous I was for saying that. Again, not even trying to recognize that my statement wasn't a prediction.
And you know what, let's say it's not falsifiable just for the sake of argument. Does it really matter?
Give me a break.
In the end it doesn't, so why put so much energy into it? Just relax and let it slide
Honestly, I learned a valuable lesson that I will never forget around here.
