Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (58 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bjerknes
- Start date
You know, we’re all going to get our asses kicked by new Covid variants this coming Spring.
For all the talk about China’s Gain-of-Function bioterror research, the entire country of 1.3 billion people is right now a working genetic mutation laboratory: developing new variants with extra spicy Szechwan sauce.
So for all of you having Christmas Eve dinner in Chinese restaurants tonight: Merry Christmas!
For all the talk about China’s Gain-of-Function bioterror research, the entire country of 1.3 billion people is right now a working genetic mutation laboratory: developing new variants with extra spicy Szechwan sauce.
So for all of you having Christmas Eve dinner in Chinese restaurants tonight: Merry Christmas!
The US Department of Energy has assessed that the Covid-19 pandemic most likely came from a laboratory leak in China. The new assessment further adds to the divide in the US government over whether the pandemic began in China in 2019 as the result of a lab leak or whether it emerged naturally. Various intelligence agencies have been split on the matter. "Right now, there is not a definitive answer that has emerged from the intelligence community on this question," national security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday, noting that President Joe Biden has put resources into getting to the bottom of the origin question. The US began exploring the possibility that Covid-19 spread in a lab as early as April 2020, though intelligence officials have said a lack of cooperation from Beijing has made it difficult to attain answers.
"Most likely arose" + "low confidence"? 
Humans are so horrible at probability and statistics. How this report has been covered in the media has been a comedy train since yesterday.
Humans are so horrible at probability and statistics. How this report has been covered in the media has been a comedy train since yesterday.
"Most likely arose" + "low confidence"?
Humans are so horrible at probability and statistics. How this report has been covered in the media has been a comedy train since yesterday.
Humans are so horrible at probability and statistics. How this report has been covered in the media has been a comedy train since yesterday.
Govt agencies follow word of estimated probability, so most likely is above 80%. Which leaves us with 2 possibilities either you don't trust gov (welcome to the club) or you do. In both cases the virus comes out of the lab.
"according to people who have read the classified report."
Govt agencies follow word of estimated probability, so most likely is above 80%. Which leaves us with 2 possibilities either you don't trust gov (welcome to the club) or you do. In both cases the virus comes out of the lab.
Govt agencies follow word of estimated probability, so most likely is above 80%. Which leaves us with 2 possibilities either you don't trust gov (welcome to the club) or you do. In both cases the virus comes out of the lab.
I got nothing to say for or against the Chinese lab leak hypothesis. But saying "we're not sure, therefore it must be xxx" is not a reasonable answer, whether it's God, aliens, or Chinese bioweapons labs.
And yet now, as a result of unfettered cluelessness about uncertainty, we have Sen. Rand "Top Secret Clearance" Paul asking to declassify all the DoE findings so that we expose all the American intel sources on China to the open Internet and every nut job on the planet. Which will clearly solve everything and make it all better.
When you're saying both "most likely" and "low confidence", you're essentially saying you have a crapshoot of weak options and that's the best one you think you've got. Everybody seems to be driving off that cliff without peeking at the warning sign on the offramp.
I got nothing to say for or against the Chinese lab leak hypothesis. But saying "we're not sure, therefore it must be xxx" is not a reasonable answer, whether it's God, aliens, or Chinese bioweapons labs.
And yet now, as a result of unfettered cluelessness about uncertainty, we have Sen. Rand "Top Secret Clearance" Paul asking to declassify all the DoE findings so that we expose all the American intel sources on China to the open Internet and every nut job on the planet. Which will clearly solve everything and make it all better.
I got nothing to say for or against the Chinese lab leak hypothesis. But saying "we're not sure, therefore it must be xxx" is not a reasonable answer, whether it's God, aliens, or Chinese bioweapons labs.
And yet now, as a result of unfettered cluelessness about uncertainty, we have Sen. Rand "Top Secret Clearance" Paul asking to declassify all the DoE findings so that we expose all the American intel sources on China to the open Internet and every nut job on the planet. Which will clearly solve everything and make it all better.
I rather china know than some slimy bureaucrat hide behind the classified tag.
"Most likely arose" + "low confidence"?
Humans are so horrible at probability and statistics. How this report has been covered in the media has been a comedy train since yesterday.
Humans are so horrible at probability and statistics. How this report has been covered in the media has been a comedy train since yesterday.
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"according to people who have read the classified report."
Govt agencies follow word of estimated probability, so most likely is above 80%. Which leaves us with 2 possibilities either you don't trust gov (welcome to the club) or you do. In both cases the virus comes out of the lab.
Govt agencies follow word of estimated probability, so most likely is above 80%. Which leaves us with 2 possibilities either you don't trust gov (welcome to the club) or you do. In both cases the virus comes out of the lab.
