Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (55 Viewers)

Quetzalcoatl

It ain't hard to tell
Aug 22, 2007
66,789
intensive care beds are very expensive to build, and you also need the personnel for those. where do you get the staff for a semi-permanent covid cure centers from? i honestly have no idea, and my bet is that in most countries the health care system usually suffers from labor shortage, even without the current overload.

i'm no expert in epidemiology, but it's clear to me that the korean method works. i mean not the north korean full denial, but the south korean "test everyone" method. they had a rough 2 weeks around late february, early march, but they managed to stop the curve, and keep their death rate pretty low because their health system wasn't overloaded. now they have ~100 new cases in a 50m country (murica had 25k new cases for a population of ~330m), that's a rate any european country or the us would be willing to accept. test, test, test, and if someone's positive, send him home, then test again in 2 weeks. hospitalize those who need a ventilator. wear a mask and gloves. rinse and repeat indefinitely, and accept that you can't save anyone.
The beds are very expensive but nothing compared to the cost of the economy running at a reduced capacity for so long. Labour shortages are a problem but like I said, it's an attempt to return to normalcy gradually so you attempt to meet these demands over time - hire medical students and foreign workers if necessary.

If it becomes possible for testing kits to be available to everyone like that, that'd be great and huge step to returning to normalcy.

But this current way of dealing with can only be temporary. The political instability will increase over time and governments are going to have to find different ways of dealing with it, even if it means over burdening the health systems imo.
 

Strickland

Senior Member
May 17, 2019
5,859
So, a Belgian lawyer knows more than actual scientific experts
IMO most governments are listening to epidemiologists too much and they're not paying enough attention to experts from other fields. Flattening the curve is a good strategy from epidemiologic pow, but in the big picture we're headed for a dead end, we can't keep this up for a year (or however long it takes), the consequences will be grave.

A lawyer is hardly a stupid profession, most good lawyers I know are twice as smart as the geniuses people elect to run countries and make these decisions.
 

acmilan

Plusvalenza Akbar
Nov 8, 2005
10,722
Neither you nor him have any solid data to back up your claim, you speak strictly from your personal interpretation, fueled by fear and panic, and anecdotes.

You obviously can choose to believe anything you want but until the CDC and major scientific outlets change their tune, it is what we are working with right now.
What I said earlier was reported by hospital personnel first in Italy and then New York. I am not the source, I am merely relaying what the people on the frontline have said/reported in official statements.
The CDC can't even assure a proper supply of basic medical equipment. Numerous facilities, some of which national Labs, with the capacity and technical equipment and know-how to process test results are sitting idle because the CDC has lacked the organization to use these resources. And you are gonna wait on them to tell you things that the medical personnel on the ground will be first to know?
By the time the CDC gets their shit together and make life-saving info widely available, this pandemic will be pretty much over.

And personal interpretation fueled by panic and fear? Really, you still catching up with the latest developments in reality? It was the modeling results that projected 2 Million dead or, best case scenario 200K or so, that scared Trump into reason, otherwise the baffoon was getting ready to open up the country (and those markets, aaahhh, those markets) by Easter.
What Trump realized on Monday, I had been telling you for weeks now. Why do you think I have been acting like this, personal interpretation fueled by fear and panic? No, my friend, I just had a much better idea what was coming and that's why I was/am so agitated by seeing this incompetent fuck botch the response to this pandemic in every imaginable way. I didn't have to see the official modeling results to have a pretty good idea what numbers of body bags we were gonna be looking at down the road.

It's not personal interpretation fueled by fear and panic, it's just a heavy dose of reality. I just don't have my head stuck up my ass ... About time you pulled out yours, as well.
 

Enron

Tickle Me
Moderator
Oct 11, 2005
75,665
Lets model the US f.e. With their demographic and assuming 70% get infected, with people 60+ yo quarantined the number of people hospitalized is ~ 4.4m. If you add the hospitalizations of 60+ yo, we get to 10m hospitalized. Thats a big difference in terms kf how long the restrictions are for everyone.
what’s the carrying capacity for US hospitals at one time? How many of the 4.4m will need ventilation? How many of those do we have?

what’s the average hospitalization excluding Covid 19 patients? What’s the average icu usage excluding Covid patients?
 

GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
70,865
What I said earlier was reported by hospital personnel first in Italy and then New York. I am not the source, I am merely relaying what the people on the frontline have said/reported in official statements.
The CDC can't even assure a proper supply of basic medical equipment. Numerous facilities, some of which national Labs, with the capacity and technical equipment and know-how to process test results are sitting idle because the CDC has lacked the organization to use these resources. And you are gonna wait on them to tell you things that the medical personnel on the ground will be first to know?
By the time the CDC gets their shit together and make life-saving info widely available, this pandemic will be pretty much over.

And personal interpretation fueled by panic and fear? Really, you still catching up with the latest developments in reality? It was the modeling results that projected 2 Million dead or, best case scenario 200K or so, that scared Trump into reason, otherwise the baffoon was getting ready to open up the country (and those markets, aaahhh, those markets) by Easter.
What Trump realized on Monday, I had been telling you for weeks now. Why do you think I have been acting like this, personal interpretation fueled by fear and panic? No, my friend, I just had a much better idea what was coming and that's why I was/am so agitated by seeing this incompetent fuck botch the response to this pandemic in every imaginable way. I didn't have to see the official modeling results to have a pretty good idea what numbers of body bags we were gonna be looking at down the road.

It's not personal interpretation fueled by fear and panic, it's just a heavy dose of reality. I just don't have my head stuck up my ass ... About time you pulled out yours, as well.
Reality? :lol: fuck off with that noise, also stop replying to my posts, not only do you not have anything I'm interested in hearing, you are a typical emotional wreck, first with the milan business and now this, I'm bad for your health, go cower in your corner and cry.
 

AFL_ITALIA

MAGISTERIAL
Jun 17, 2011
31,823
I think we would also have to assume how much this permanently affects the economy is dependant on what actions are taken by governments as well. I think Canada may fare better than the United States in relative terms as they seem to be much more willing to quickly provide direct aid to citizens, for example.
 
OP
Bjerknes

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,240
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #4,580
    Here's an old article where researchers try to find a suicide rate due to unemployment.

    Unemployment causes 45,000 suicides a year worldwide, finds study

    https://www.theguardian.com/society...s-45000-suicides-a-year-worldwide-finds-study


    Between 2000 and 2011, the relative risk of suicide associated with unemployment rose by 20% to 30% in all regions, the paper says. Of an estimated 233,000 suicides each year in the 63 countries, which range from Kyrgyzstan to Japan, Russia, Romania, Denmark, Germany, the UK, Mexico, Canada and the US, one in five were due to unemployment
    The U-3 unemployment rate during the last recession in 2009 was around 10% in the US. According to calculations on the current situation, the U-3 unemployment rate will be around 30% or higher. So basically, the risk of suicide will be three times larger, at least 150,000 people just by extrapolating the data.
     

    Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 36)