Champions League 2017/2018 (45 Viewers)

[Cerval]

With the betting companies Real Madrid are 3 times more likely to go through than Juve according to the odds

we are 1.5 for a bet Madrid are 0.5 for a bet to qualify

He's not that far off with his odds

Betting companies are EPL centric most of them and don't hold the absolute truth. If we'd go by the odds they give us each season, we'd be out in the round of 16 or at most quarters each year.

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I adore this Tuz concept that one must flip the script and go full retard in the opposite direction in order to be "unbiased". It's not enough to take a measured look at things, and realize that Madrid should be at best slight favourites, nope, one must say that it's Real Madrid 75% because we are so bad, even though we're unbeaten in 24 matches and they're having a complete stinker of a season in all competitions, 4th place in the league, 2nd in CL behind the team we just knocked out. Their only achievement of note this year is demolishing PSG in Rof16. I'd give them 55-45 due to our injuries and first leg suspensions, and they just seem to kill it in the CL the past few years.

That 75% though.

Worst case probabilities is 60-40 for Real Madrid, anything below is not recognizing our strength. I say this with the plain knowledge of us having a bad midfield, we're doing wonders even though that's the case.

Besides there's more time for Real Madrid to be demoralized by bad la Liga results in between our matches, we definitely have our cards to play

Those that say we got outplayed by Tottenham don't realize Tottenham outplayed Madrid in both encounters and won one of them 3-1

 

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[duranfj]

I dont know.. I was much more optimistic about our chances over the past few years.. I mean even vs Bayern I felt better than I feel about this tie
We have few options vs Real and all of them suck
4-3-3 - It didnt work vs Tottenham and then we changed to 4-2-3-1 which put them down. against Real it means we are trying to fight their possession and limit their holding of the ball - PROBLEM - their trio are far better than ours..
4-2-3-1 It means leaving the central of the midfield to Real but skipping straight to the attacking zone - Its good because we will lose our midfield battle anyway , its bad because we dont want to give Real too many chances
3-5-2 - This is a formation to defend a lead so I cant see us trying it if we dont take the lead and go into the 2nd half that way..

I think most of us are fans who cant really be unbiased about our chances but if you try to look at it as an outsider then this tie suits Real who also have the advantage of Pjanic out for the first leg.. Real have around 75% to go through IMO

Why r u so negative? even "neutral and unbiased" houses give us 30%. As a fan it should be a little higher than that

IMO we should go 4-3-3 with Pjanic, Cheesio & Matuidi and Costa, Paulo & Pipa..

What I think Max is gonna play Sami-Pjanic-Matuidi with Mandzo,Paulo and Pipa in front and let Costa in the bench to have at least one sub attacking option

 

[Maddy]

Why r u so negative? even "neutral and unbiased" houses give us 30%. As a fan it should be a little higher than that

IMO we should go 4-3-3 with Pjanic, Cheesio & Matuidi and Costa, Paulo & Pipa..

What I think Max is gonna play Sami-Pjanic-Matuidi with Mandzo,Paulo and Pipa in front and let Costa in the bench to have at least one sub attacking option

I can guarantee you Allegri won't play Pjanic in game 1.

 

[Post Ironic]

 

[Dantes]

With the betting companies Real Madrid are 3 times more likely to go through than Juve according to the odds

we are 1.5 for a bet Madrid are 0.5 for a bet to qualify

He's not that far off with his odds

Bookmakers offer odds based on more than just probability. You'll often see shorter odds on the popular bet. It's the bookies way of mitigating their losses / maximising income.

If you ever get a chance to go to the races, you'll notice that the odds change every few minutes before a race. It's not like the bookies are getting 'hot news' about the condition of the horses during this period (although that may also occasionally happen), they're watching how many bets people are placing, and for how much, and adjusting the odds accordingly.

The simple fact is many more people will be placing bets on Real and not Juve. So Real's odds shorten (both to mitigate the payouts and discourage heavily one-sided bets) - and conversely - the bookies can afford to lengthen Juve's odds to encourage more betting on the Bianconeri.

Betting companies are EPL centric most of them and don't hold the absolute truth. If we'd go by the odds they give us each season, we'd be out in the round of 16 or at most quarters each year.

The bookies are managing risk when they set odds, they're not making a straightforward prediction on the outcome. Their game is to make a profit whoever wins. The EPL teams tend to be more popular.

From an outsider - who isn't running a book - I'd put this game at 50/50.

 

[duranfj]

I can guarantee you Allegri won't play Pjanic in game 1.

I know that but the leg is gonna be decide with him in the pitch in Madrid.

 

[Maddy]

From an outsider - I'd put this game at 50/50.

Just to let you know, you are replying to a troll.

Anyways, the game isn't 50/50. Real are favourites. Their midfield is at least a level above ours and Ronaldo is on fire. La Liga is done, so their minds are set on CL and they can arrive fully rested + our injury woes.

Futhermore glad to see soemone who understands betting/odds. People here go bananas 'cause betting firms have Man City as CL-favourites, not understanding why City have the lowest has little to do with them actually being the favourites. Algorithm's aren't pundits nor fans.

 

[Dantes]

Anyways, the game isn't 50/50. Real are favourites. Their midfield is at least a level above ours and Ronaldo is on fire. La Liga is done, so their minds are set on CL and they can arrive fully rested + our injury woes.

Fair enough. But you could, arguably, have written that Spurs' midfield was a level above and that Kane/Eriksen/Son were on fire. But that didn't matter. I get that you're cautious, but that your focus is (understandably) on Real's strengths and Juve's weaknesses. But Juve have their strengths too - tactical flexibility, patience, clinical finishing, attitude etc.

 

[Maddy]

Fair enough. But you could, arguably, have written that Spurs' midfield was a level above and that Kane/Eriksen/Son were on fire.

No, I couldn't because Real's midfield is better than Tottenham's, both in quality and experience. Only Eriksen could challenge for a starting spot.

We didn't win against Tottenham 'cause we were the better team, we won 'cause we were the more experienced and smarter team. We can't outclass Real in that department.

 

[juve123]

Fair enough. But you could, arguably, have written that Spurs' midfield was a level above and that Kane/Eriksen/Son were on fire. But that didn't matter. I get that you're cautious, but that your focus is (understandably) on Real's strengths and Juve's weaknesses. But Juve have their strengths too - tactical flexibility, patience, clinical finishing, attitude etc.

When Tottenham Hotspur beat real Madrid what were tatics used by pochettino

 

[Cerval]

No, I couldn't because Real midfield is better than Tottenhams, both in quality and experience. Only Eriksen could challenge for a starting spot.

We didn't win against Tottenham 'cause we were the better team we won 'cause we were the more experienced and smarter team. We can't outclass Real in that department.

Real Madrid had a better team than us in 2015. The team that is going to want it most is going to go through, regardless of our midfield woes.

 

[Dantes]

@Maddy. I'll close then by just saying I wouldn't be at all surprised if Juve won this. I think the win over PSG papered over some of the cracks with this season's Real. PSG are a novelty club. Not elite.

When Tottenham Hotspur beat real Madrid what were tatics used by pochettino

5-3-2 in Madrid. 3-5-2 at Home. Let them have possession at the back. Swamp midfield. Hit them on the break with pace. We had less than 50% possession in both games.

 

[Maddy]

Real Madrid had a better team than us in 2015. The team that is going to want it most is going to go through, regardless of our midfield woes.

Okay.

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@Maddy. I'll close then by just saying I wouldn't be at all surprised if Juve won this. I think the win over PSG papered over some of the cracks with this season's Real. PSG are a novelty club. Not elite.

Nor would I be surprised, I never claimed we don't have a chance. Just that Real is the favourite and it isn't a 50/50 game.

 

[BayernFan]

Real Madrid had a better team than us in 2015. The team that is going to want it most is going to go through, regardless of our midfield woes.

The thing is Real Madrid always want it in CL. Its their tournament. And with them out of the La Liga race and Copa they only have CL to care about.

 

[Cerval]

The thing is Real Madrid always want it in CL. Its their tournament. And with them out of the La Liga race and Copa they only have CL to care about.

Yeah it's going to be tough, I actually have them as favourite to win the whole thing again - therefore they're obviously favourite in the tie. But Juventus does have chances

 

[BayernFan]

Yeah it's going to be tough, I actually have them as favourite to win the whole thing again - therefore they're obviously favourite in the tie. But Juventus does have chances

Yes offcourse Juve has chances. Wont be easy for Real Madrid at all. Im just pissed the match are played same time as Sevilla - Bayern, really wanted to see this one.

 

[Jethro]

Ronaldo in form...

 

[Ventus]

Ronaldo in form...

Its Ronaldo season, bad feeling about this.

Quick someone injure him before he plays us.

 

[duranfj]

We have a pretty chance IMO... In a final we have everything to lose against them... in a two game leg they are screw

I'm gonna bet some money on us for sure

 

[Bianconero81]

We're gonna concede at home, maybe once, possibly twice. I think a 2-1 home win seems a realistic result. Now, we have to go there and score as well. If we score 1st in Madrid, it will unsettle them. Let's just hope we don't suffer any further injuries before the tie, and get some good news regarding Berna and Cuads :xfinger: