I'm ok with that if he will use his size and shoot more.
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Pros
Logan Brown is 6'6" and 222 pounds. He can skate, he scored 74 points for the Windsor Spitfires this season and he has NHL bloodlines. Small wonder that he's one of the biggest wild cards in the first round of the 2016 NHL draft.
"In this draft especially, there are a lot of big guys who can skate and stick-handle," Brown told NHL.com's Mike G. Morreale. "But I like to think I have those qualities along with good hockey sense."
Big, smart centres who can skate and score are awfully hard to find.
Cons
Brown had 74 points, but most of those were assists; he only scored 21 goals and is generally regarded as being a little too willing to take a pass over a shot.
One unnamed scout suggested to The Hockey News that Brown was more of a project than other top players available at this year's draft:
He's a little bit of an enigma, to tell you the truth. In terms of tools, his tools are as good as anyone's in the draft. He's got size, but he might be the weakest guy in all of the draft. Even without strength, though, guys have trouble getting the puck off him. I don't think he's bought in yet.
Some scouts have Brown well outside their top 10, with TSN's Craig Button going so far as to place him 27th on his list.
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Mikhail Sergachev
Pros
Mikhail Sergachev is a teammate of Logan Brown's in Windsor, but his status as a top-10 pick would seem to be considerably safer. He's one of a trio of defenceman (along with Jakob Chychrun and Olli Juolevi) that are tightly grouped in the 2016 draft, with different scouts having different preferences among the group.
"Sergachev," wrote TSN's Bob McKenzie, "is a big, strong, elite-level skater with great productivity and a cannon shot from the point."
Listed at over 200 pounds already, Sergachev may be closer to NHL readiness than his draft peers.
Cons
Sergachev came over to the OHL in 2015-16, which may help to mitigate fears regarding the "Russian factor," but he'll undoubtedly have a job waiting for him in the KHL if things don't work out, and historically, that has been a concern for NHL teams.
Like most young defencemen, he's also a long way from being a finished product.
"I guess I would call it Dennis Wideman syndrome," OHL play-by-play man Reed Duthie told Kirk Luedeke of Scouting Post. "[A]t times, he’s as likely to pass it to his teammates as he is to pass it to the opponents."
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Tyson Jost
Position: Center or Left Wing
Dimensions: 6’0″, 191 lbs.
2015-16 Team: Penticton Vees (BCHL)
2015-16 Stats: 48 GP — 42G, 62A, 104P
2016-17 Team: University of North Dakota
Pros
The 2016 class’s hottest prospect right now has been surging up mock drafts after breaking Connor McDavid’s scoring record at the World U-18 tournament in late April. He also destroyed the BCHL this past season, averaging more than two points per game and winning league MVP.
Long regarded as a mid- to late-first round pick, Jost is now consistently spotted in the top 15 and has risen to ninth overall in TSN’s mock draft.
“Jost is a crafty goal-scorer that carries out plays as quickly as he envisions them,” wrote Elite Prospects’ Curtis Joe. “As someone who thinks and plays at a fast tempo, it comes as no surprise that he creates a lot of energy as an offensive catalyst. He sees the ice very well and has the willingness and determination to win battles in the tough areas.”
Joe’s description of Jost aligns with the reports of others, which universally praise his all-around offensive skills. An unnamed scout quoted by Sportnet’s Gare Joyce called him the most likely candidate to grow into the best player of the 2016 draft class outside of the top 7-8 picks.
The Alberta native made a name for himself with Canada in the U-18s, tallying 15 points in seven games to edge American forward Clayton Keller (who will also be on the Hurricanes’ radar at 13th overall) for the tournament scoring title, even though Canada’s run fell short with an embarrassing 10-3 loss to USA in the bronze medal game.
He was named tournament MVP, joining a group that includes Ilya Kovalchuk, Evgeni Malkin, Alexander Ovechkin and Phil Kessel as former World U-18 MVPs, and proved his formidability as a top prospect against the world’s best.
Cons
The BCHL is far from the top draft pick factory that the OHL or WHL is: a BCHL player hasn’t been drafted higher than the third round since Beau Bennett went 20th in 2010, and only one BCHL player was drafted at all last June (by San Jose in the seventh round).
Jost, meanwhile, hasn’t faced much competition in his career thus far — even the U-18’s were criticized for poor overall quality this year — and will have a test ahead of him against bigger, stronger competition at North Dakota this coming season.
For now, NHL teams can only to judge him based on what they’ve seen, and that can be a risky, uncertain judgment for a player who remains probably two years away from hitting an NHL rink for the first time.
Pure physicality, for one, may be a concern. Jost’s most basic of 'size’ measurements — 6’0″, 191 pounds — are pretty normal for a forward, but scouts have noted that he needs to add muscle and bulk in order to balance out his willingness to play physically with his effectiveness when playing physically.
Ben Kerr of LWOS also lists wrist shot power as a weakness.
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Clayton Keller
Position: Center
Dimensions: 5’10”, 170 lbs.
2015-16 Team: U.S. National U18 Team
2015-16 Stats: 62 GP — 37G, 70A, 107P
2016-17 Team: Boston University
Pros
Keller and Marner differ very little.
Both are under six feet tall. Both are under 175 pounds. Both scored over 100 points on their respective teams in their draft year.
But all of that could be said of a large number of NHL hopefuls. Keller and Marner, however, don’t just have similar resume bullet points but also play the sport with similar (top-caliber) styles, as demonstrated by this side-by-side comparison of their Future Considerations scouting reports:
Keller stood out as the clear best player on the U.S. National U-18 Team this year, with his 107 points topping fellow likely first-round pick Kieffer Bellows by a 26-point margin. That total came within 10 points of unanimous No. 1 pick Auston Matthews’ record output in 2014-15.
The US U-18 team plays a schedule largely composed of various USHL junior teams and assorted universities before culminating its campaign with the World U-18 Championships. The U.S. claimed bronze in that competition, falling to Finland in the semi-finals before hammering Canada 10-3 in the third-place game, with Keller’s 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) falling one point shy of aforementioned Tyson Jost for the tournament high.
“(Marner is) a hard-nosed, fearless player with a lot of flash,” wrote Steve Kournianos of The Draft Analyst in January, “but he’s been Team USA’s leader and go-to option for every critical situation – defensive zone draws, killing penalties, gaining entry into the offensive zone, etc.”
It’s certainly much easier at the junior level to be that kind of all-around superstar due to talent alone than it is at the professional level, but Keller’s development has yet to show signs of being slowed down by anything.
[video=twitter;724445526150668288]https://twitter.com/IIHFHockey/status/724445526150668288[/video]
Cons
If size is a minor concern for Jost, it’s a major concern for Keller, who must gain about 20 pounds to reach league average for bulk and will always be hampered by his height.
“He needs to strengthen his core in order to improve his balance and be more effective in the corners and in front of the net,” wrote Ben Kerr of LWOS in his scouting report, as well.
Keller’s diminutive body hasn’t hurt his career trajectory so far, but it could soon, and GMs will surely be keeping it in mind on June 24.
Only one player was lighter than Keller on the 2015-16 Boston University hockey roster, where Keller is currently committed for 2016-17 (although either his NHL aspirations or his Windsor-held OHL rights could still steal him away). He’s already used to playing collegiate opposition, though, so if he finds himself a Terrier in the autumn, the Illinois native is a pretty good bet to immediately gain star status on Jack Eichel’s alma mater.
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Olli Juolevi
Pros
Olli Juolevi was already climbing draft boards before the World Juniors, but a performance in which he recorded nine points in seven games and won both a gold medal and a spot on the tournament All-Star team didn't hurt his stock at all.
Juolevi arguably lacks the same level of offence as Mikhail Sergachev and the stalwart defensive game of Jakob Chychrun, but he may be better than both when it comes to processing the game.
"NHL scouts say Juolevi’s greatest asset is his hockey sense—his ability to see the ice and make first passes," wrote Sportsnet's Gare Joyce.
"He makes the essential and key plays at every turn," concurred TSN's Craig Button. "He shows mastery of his position under the most challenging of circumstances, and his poise, calm and assuredness are the stuff of pillar-type defencemen."
That processing power, combined with skating honed on the big rinks of Europe, makes Juolevi a formidable prospect.
Cons
OHL prospects writer Brock Otten agreed that Juolevi is intelligent and efficient, but he argued that the player lacks the same upside as Sergachev or Chychrun:
I see Chychrun/Sergachev possessing first pairing upside, and both possess better physical tools. ... His shot is OK and I don't think he's naturally aggressive as a puck rusher. Thus, I don't see him being a massive point producer at the next level. ... He's definitely not mean, and he'll likely forever be a stick/positional defender.
Juolevi played on the most dominant team in the OHL and recorded only 42 points, fewer than either Sergachev or Chychrun (albeit in fewer games played). His 16 penalty minutes were also the lowest number of any regular on the London Knights' blue line.