So we came to the conclusion that cash flow this 2014-15 season considering only transfer fees is of + 7M. We didn't actually spend a penny this mercato, we got 7M profit (so far), considering only the money flow this year, without thinking about the commitments the club made.
Now let's think about the impact our 2 last mercatos + this one will have on our next 2 mercatos, in the years of 2015 and 2016.
2015 Mercato Projection
Signing fees already commited to pay in 2015: roughly 38M
From 2014 signings: 23.25M
- Berardi co-own 5M (1st of 3 - reportedly we already agreed to buy him for 15M next season)
- Morata 6.6M (2nd of 3 installments)
- Pereyra 1.5M 4.8 (1st of 3 installments)
- Marrone 1.5M (2nd of 3 installments)
- Isla 2.3M (last of 2 installments)
- Pasquato 0.75M (last of 2 installments)
- Sturaro 1.8M (2nd of 3 installments)
- Sorensen 0.75M (2nd of 3 installments)
- Evra 0.75M (last of 2 installments)
- Romulo 2.3M (1st of 3 installments - considering the fee will be of 7M to be payed in 3x)
From 2013 signings: 14.4M
- Ogbonna - 4.3M (last of 3 installments)
- Asamoah 2nd half co-own - 3M (last of 3 installments).
- Tevez - 5M (last of 3 inst).
- Zaza co-own 1.2M (last of 3 inst)
- Berardi co-own - 0.9M (4th of 5 inst)
From 2012-13 signings: 0. Most signings from 2012 were finished paying this season, 2014, when the 3rd installment was paid.
Money to be received from player sales in 2015: 14.9M
- Giaccherini - 2.5M (last of 3 installments) - from 2013
- Matri - 2.75M (3rd of 4). - from 2013
- Zaza 2.5M (2nd of 3) - from 2014
- Peluso 1.6M (2nd of 3) - from 2014
- Quagliarella 1.2M (2nd of 3) - from 2014
- Isla 4M (last of 2 - my assumption) - from 2014
Cash flow in 2015 mercato: 38M - 14.9M = around 23M. In other words, next mercato we'll start already with -23M in cash flow transfers.
In a quick account, Cash flow in 2016 mercato : 20.5M - 8.5M = 12M. We will start 2016 with -12M in cash flow transfers, without considering signings to be made in 2015 and 2016.
- - - Updated - - -
Now we need a comparison. This year, cash flow is + 7M regarding transfer fees.
Before 2014, we already entered the year with a projected - 12,2M (considering commitments to pay and sell) commited from 2012; and 6,85M from 2013 (and also around -4M from Matri's deal from 2011)
The total amount is of around (-)23M.
So we entered 2014 with a deficit of 23M in terms of cash flow from past seasons deals.
The deals made in 2014 generated a positive of around 7M in cash flow.
In 2013: we had -26M to pay from 2011 signings; -9M to pay from 2012 signings (considering money commited to spend and receive) = -35M.
Cash flow in 2013, from 2013 transfers only: -5,4M.
Conclusion:
- The effects of almost every sign we make are extended to 2 more years besides the year of the signing - almost all our transfers are spred in 3 years;
- The reason why we look more into Italy is probably because of more favourable payment conditions - and for this advantage, Marotta overpays for the players a little bit;
- We almost never spend more than 5/6M for a player in a year in transfer installments;
- in 2013, we entered the season with -35M to be paid that year from previous years transfers (mainly 2011 and 2012);
- in 2013, cash flow from transactions only from that year was of -5,4M, considering signings and sales;
- in 2014, we entered the season with -23M to be paid this year, from previous years (2012 and 2013);
- in 2014, cash flow from transactions only from this year is of +7M, considering signings and sales;
- in 2015, we will enter the season with -23M again to be paid in 2015. Also, we have to consider that only from 2014, we have already commited to enter 2016 season with -12M.
At the same time, our overall debt is quickly rasing in the past 2 or 3 years.
Although our revenues should increase around 30M next year from new sponsorships, ADIDAS and TV rights, things definitely don't look very promising.
Unless we raise equity or get another loan from Exxor (which is unlikely due to our already too high debt levels), we all can stop dreaming about signing big name players, or even highly rated youngsters for the next years.
IF things follow this pattern and nothing new happens, like raising the equity, this is will be our kind of mercato for quite a while.