Syrian civil war (7 Viewers)

Eddy

The Maestro
Aug 20, 2005
12,644
Are you seriously asking this question? :D
Yeah honestly because I don't know. I remember he pulled out of Lebanon when Hariri's assasination happened but that's about it.

And you didn't expect it Rami? The regime is backed by Iran, Hezbollah fighter, Russia and China and I myself expected it. It's how things are.
As far as I know, Hezbollah fighters entered the war recently. Russia also started transferring weapons very recently while China just blocks UN votes up when it goes against Syria. While on the opposition side, they've been fully financed since the beginning with Chechens and other "extremist" fighters from around the globe so why shouldn't Hezbollah and the others join in to help ?

This tale has been read before, 20-25 years ago. Only the battlefield at the time was Afghanistan with more or likely, the same big powers with their proxies. I would not be surprised if Syria becomes Afghanistan 2.0 and that would be a shitstorm of unstability for who knows how many decades.
 

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K.O.

Senior Member
Nov 24, 2005
13,883
RAMI¹⁰;4185950 said:
What do you know about the Syrian people regarding this matter, if I may ask?!
I meet a lot of Syrian people every day, most of them are not Islamists and are very liberal. You might be Syrian as well, so it's nice to get another perspective regarding the matter. But in the end, I use my common sense to choose who to believe.

I already know the history of Baath party from the days of Hafez and the numerous massacres he did in peace times, it's all documented. Imagine what the party is doing in 'war' time.

If I'm not mistaken, not a single person out of 10+ millions voted against him during his first election.
IIRC, Saddam Hussein was the only one who got %100 in a presidential election. Bashar was less mental in which he got %99.5!
 

Azzurri7

Pinturicchio
Moderator
Dec 16, 2003
72,692
Yeah honestly because I don't know. I remember he pulled out of Lebanon when Hariri's assasination happened but that's about it..


http://www.voltairenet.org/local/cache-vignettes/L400xH248/Har_400-51700.jpg1-

1- Political assassinations: Ghazi Kanaan, Rafic Hariri and 15 others. And recently Wissam Al-Hasan.

2- Former Lebanese minister Michel Smaha (Bashar's number 1 friend/ally) was arrested for organizing with the Syrian regime to assassinate few figures in Lebanon. Smaha brought onfiscated explosives to Lebanon. He's now in prison and not even Hezbollah had the balls to defend him.

3- Many politicians who are no longer on the side of the regime (even before the revolution) aren't allowed to come-back to Syria, one of them is Abdel Halim Khadam, who was Vice-President of Syria for 20 years. They confiscated everything his family's got because he was no longer on agreement with the regime and with Bashar precisely. That's freedom of speech there.

You want me to go on? Jailing any free man who doesn't think the same? Killing the whole family if one of them is an opposition? Do they even have anymore space in their jails? I read an article where they're killing people in jails daily to make space for new-comers. Do/did you have the right to establish any political party in Syria before the revolution? And now all of a sudden they fear them extremists which aren't as big as they claim? Extremists the regime themselves created FFS. They have been feeding them for the past 20years. If Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine lands could speak they'd tell you how the Syrian regime used their extremists for some political goals.
 

Brandmon

Juventuz irregular
Aug 13, 2008
1,406
As far as I know, Hezbollah fighters entered the war recently. Russia also started transferring weapons very recently while China just blocks UN votes up when it goes against Syria. While on the opposition side, they've been fully financed since the beginning with Chechens and other "extremist" fighters from around the globe so why shouldn't Hezbollah and the others join in to help ?

This tale has been read before, 20-25 years ago. Only the battlefield at the time was Afghanistan with more or likely, the same big powers with their proxies. I would not be surprised if Syria becomes Afghanistan 2.0 and that would be a shitstorm of unstability for who knows how many decades.
To be fair, whenever it comes to such kind of episodes, it always takes two to tango, so it would be a rather incomplete (but not entirely wrong) view of things to state that foreign involvement is only coming from one side. Russia's stance is not new but the same as it was for decades, Iran was more than willing even by 2011 towards intervening itself to counter similar moves by Saudi Arabia and considering how tied to Ba'athist Syria Hezbollah is, I would have been surprised if they didn't involve themselves in the conflict. Indeed the recent episodes in the last 2 weeks confirmed what was suspected for the last 2 years.

In the end as with any situation of politics, this situation has to be judged as it is and not merely a situation that has to be somehow categorically fitted into a predetermined ideal of "Good vs Evil". From the get-go this whole affair was a Lose-Lose situation for all involved.
From the rebel side anyone who thought that the opposition would remain "Moderate" (let alone liberal) needs to simply look to every past episodes of Civil War within the last 100 years or so: fact is that the longer an armed struggled against an established authority goes on, the more the moderates/reformists are sidelined and the more the extremists/militants gain power within such a rebel group. The people touted by now to take over Syrian by force are not statesmen with concrete plans but ambitions of other goals within the region. Syria would then not be a functioning country but a springboard for other Islamist insurgencies.
On the other hand let us not forget that this whole debacle could have been avoided in the first place, which is where Bashar is mainly at fault. Even authoritarian regimes have the imperative to address public discontent and not merely suppress it. Suppressing it will either trigger a sudden escalation of discontent which will leave the whole nation vulnerable for foreign involvement of any kind ,as is the case now, or for such discontent to be temporarily suppressed while it grows more gradually waiting for the next chance to blow, as was the case in 1980. At this point, even counting a flawless victory by the Ba'ahtists, you can't discount the fact that within the next few decades the troubles would start all over again as soon as a new generation comes to the fray. As mentioned, Syria had similar troubles 30 years ago, where they were suppressed by multiple massacres. What is going on today is of the same trend yet in a situation where the Islamists have more popular support, thus evening the sides. At this rate in 30 years time there is nothing to discount that popular support for Islamists will escalate to such a degree that they would get into power by multiple massacres.

In there end there is very little that can be done to steer the situation away from imminent catastrophe. From now on it is merely a game of speculation on who wins or who doesn't. All I know is that, as I have stated a year ago, the Syrian people themselves are the ones that are sure to lose out in a game where they are not even contenders and yet they will have the great burden of picking up the pieces after this whole charade is over.
 

Bisco

Senior Member
Nov 21, 2005
14,383
US troops at the border. Thoughts everyone?


-.-
i think its wrong, and i say this at a time yesterday's Friday speech in many mosques controlled by ultra-conservative clerics where calling for going and helping the revolutionaries at a time that coincides with this. hmmm bisco where did i see this scenario play out this way?? Afghanistan the exact same scenario is being played once again and we all know how that ends. the only difference is this hits right home unlike Afghanistan which had ripples that wont be compared with this. here is a list of countries that tasted the aftermath of the so called "arab afghans" aka " the teens who had nothing at all no job's, no future, and a stagnating economical status in there countries"

- Algeria has to head this list to have endured the worst of the worse from this scenario
- egypt
- saudi arabia
-yemen
- and when these people failed in the above countries to gain popular support with in the people they turned on to the united states starting with the attacks on the embassies in Africa and ending with the sad events of 9/11

so in my opinion this has the same fate, specially at a time the surrounding scene in the middle east in particular has changed dramatically. make no mistake the first to taste the wrath of this will be the Islamist governments in the region.

this is simply my two cents regarding this.

i dont want to go as far as conspiracy theorists, however should this scenario play out, its bound to end up in two teams, America sided by these islamists who make no mistake are loosing popularity even with people in support of Syrians over throwing bashar, against the Russian's, Iran, and the current Syrian regime. its not that they r pushing there noses into this affair at the end of the day Syria is closer to Iran followed by Russia hence Syria represents there national security borders and i think it makes sense they r on the opposing end.

after witnessing several events i can safely tell you that if in the past the muslim brotherhood for example were noted as extreme you get another group that is more extreme and so on and so forth. so just bec there are islamists in power in some countries ( at least until now, as current events are unfolding in turkey, and soon egypt and tunisia ) there will always be groups who critic these current islamists in power.

i think this syrian revolution is bound to fail even if bashar is over thrown. if this revolution is this bloody now, there is simply no guarantee the blood spilling wont end once the regime is over thrown simply bec the "revolutionaries" will use violence to silence any one who opposes them in any way or form. also throw in the fact that unlike other rev's in the region or through out history its not the syrian people them selves revolting on there regime you have many non syrians jumping on this band wagon under different pre-tenses. i have syrian's who are students in my university and there is sth very UN-comfortable about how they talk about any one who thinks the revolution is non sense.

here is the point of view of an ex beardie who spent 20 years in Egyptian prisons. its subtitled and where i dont agree with every point he raises but he does make some valid points

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqvVrf2B5YI
 
Jul 2, 2006
18,847
UN: Some 5,000 Syrians being killed every month

17 July 2013 /AP, UNITED NATIONS
An estimated 5,000 Syrians are dying every month in the country's civil war and refugees are fleeing at a rate not seen since the 1994 Rwanda genocide, UN officials said Tuesday.

"In Syria today, serious human rights violations, war crimes and crimes against humanity are the rule," said Ivan Simonovic, the assistant secretary-general for human rights, told the UN Security Council on Tuesday.

He added that "the extremely high rate of killings ... demonstrates the drastic deterioration of this conflict."

UN refugee chief Antonio Guterres said two-thirds of the nearly 1.8 million Syrian refugees known to the agency have fled since the beginning of 2013, an average of over 6,000 daily.

"We have not seen a refugee outflow escalate at such a frightening rate since the Rwandan genocide almost 20 years ago," he said.

UN humanitarian chief Valerie Amos said at least 6.8 million Syrians require urgent humanitarian assistance and accused the government and opposition of "systematically and in many cases deliberately" failing their obligation to protect civilians.

"This is a regional crisis not a crisis in Syria with regional consequences, requiring sustained and comprehensive engagement from the international community," Amos said by videoconference from Geneva.

"The security, economic, political, social, development and humanitarian consequences of this crisis are extremely grave and its human impact immeasurable in terms of the long-term trauma and emotional impact on this and future generations of Syrians," she said. "We are not only watching the destruction of a country but also of its people."

Simonovic said that since UN human rights chief Navi Pillay reported last month that at least 92,901 people had been killed between March 2011 when the conflict began and the end of April 2013, government forces and militias have moved to uproot the opposition in many areas including Qusair and Talkalkh, Aleppo, Damascus and its suburbs.

"Government forces carry on with indiscriminate and disproportionate shelling and aerial bombardments, using among other weapons tactical ballistic missiles, cluster and thermobaric bombs, all causing extensive damage and casualties if used in densely populated areas," he said.

"As a result, hundreds of civilians, including women and children were killed, thousands injured, and tens of thousands displaced," Simonovic said. "Many displaced in the parts of Homs and rural Damascus remain under siege and face miserable humanitarian conditions."

He said armed opposition groups have also committed acts of torture, abduction and kidnapping, sometimes along sectarian lines.

"Killings, violence and threats of reprisals against civilian populations perceived to be supportive of the government by armed opposition groups are escalating alarmingly," he said.

Guterres, the refugee chief, said "the danger that the Syrian conflict could ignite the whole region is not an empty warning."

Calling the impact of the refugee crisis on neighboring countries "crushing," he urged international action to support the stability of Syria's neighbors and reduce "the enormous risks of spillover" to the wider Middle East.

Guterres appealed to all countries to keep their borders open and receive all Syrians who seek protection.

Lebanon and Jordan are bearing the heaviest burden of the refugee exodus, he said, but the Kurdish region of Iraq and Turkey which has spent hundreds of millions of dollars of its own resources to assist over 400,000 refugees have also been affected.

"What I am asking for today is essential to mitigate the risk of an explosion that could engulf the entire Middle East, but only a political solution to Syria and an end to the fighting can fully stop this risk," Guterres said.

Syria's UN Ambassador Bashar Ja'afari said the UN death toll and refugee figures came from "unprofessional sources" and insisted the Syrian government was doing "everything possible to shoulder its responsibilities to its people and meet basic needs despite economic, political and media pressure."
 

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