I like Manolas more as a player, but Toby is a more natural Barzagli/Caceres/Howedes replacement as he can play RB as well. 36M & smaller wages vs 30M and higher wages, not much difference there either. Id probably get Alderweireld 1st, but if you ask me, go in for both (sell Rugani/Bonucci, or both preferably)
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Chiellini, Manolas, Alderweireld, Romero, Can (for 3man backline) looks more than enough for me. Go for Milenkovic/Romagnoli in a year