'Murica! (71 Viewers)

Jun 16, 2020
10,905
You own a home too? You essentially have the life that I always wanted growing up, but I would've started at like 26 instead :p
I’m still renting but that’s not due to not having the money to buy a house because of having children. There’s a housing shortage here of almost a million houses on a population of 17 million. I ended up renting a very nice house (if I could buy my house I would) because the housing market is locked. Plain ass normal houses who were worth 230k 15 years ago are getting sold for more than 500k at this point. I’m timing the market and hoping for a recession, whenever the prices collapse I got everything ready to enter the market. My generation basically got outpaced by economic growth and severe regulation, most who were able to buy a house just got helped by their parents, unfortunately we didn’t had that kinda luck. I simply refuse to massively overpay for a house. Having said all of this I can’t deny that I try to protect myself aswel. There are so many people why bought in ‘06, divorced during the crisis of ‘08, had to sell their house with a loss end ended up in debt. I know a few cases. Therefore I decided to wait for the right time instead of following low interest rates and therefore overpaying a lot.

If anything getting children motivated me to earn more, fortunately that went the right way
 

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pavelnel

Senior Member
Oct 24, 2006
2,474
I get you. Partially.

Here's where we disagree ( I suppose). The thing is, you can't control shit and you gotta be aware of that. Not you, but pretty much majority of us. There's certain risk at everything. We may not get to live the next year, who knows what may happen. But we still go on living and we don't think about cancer. I was saying even last year that I expect an economic collapse, I still do expect it, so I'm aware that we'll be in deep shit. Still, imo that is not the reason to make such a harsh decision not to have kids. I don't know about you, but I lived here during the 90s where we faced not only sanctions but hyperinflation that's like top 3 ever faced. I'm not saying that I'm proud of it, but lemme tell you one thing, it sure made us tougher compared to some snowflakes. What I mean is, we still managed to finish school, eat, grow up and turn into decent people. Did we miss out? I guess. But missed out on what? I missed out shitload of things honestly, but I can't say it made me a worse person. If anything, there are more good people among poor folks compared to spoiled rich brats. And no, I'm not saying it's better to live poor. Just stating the fact how money influences certain groups.

And again. It's fine if you say "I'll think about kids in 5 years". That's cool I guess. But if your girl is 35-36, imo that act is quite brutal as you can "miss out" on having a family with a girl you love. It's just an example but you get what I mean. It's fine if she's 20. Shortly, many factors should be considered but imo people are so tinny creatures that they shouldn't plan so many things because it's impossible and the cost is way too big. Stopping life because some things may happen is scary. Not just that, but even if does happen (financial collapse e.g.) it doesn't have to mean the end of the world per se.
Hopefully I am not right, but in the next 2-3 years future of humanity might be decided and probably not in our favor. I highly doubt we will live to 2030 following the current path or if we do everything will be much worse.
I think we have reached a point in time when we can't cope with the level of technological progress and things are going out of control much faster than the average human can comprehend.
People seem to want to delude themself that AI will destroy mundane jobs but creative and phisycal jobs are safe. This is a logical falacy. The white collar jobs will start to disappear and people will not be able to retrain or start physical jobs, because the main customers for blue collar products are the white collar jobs. The loss of white collar jobs will start a domino effect..
I also suffered through hyperinfaltion in the 90ies but I was young and my parents never had the convinction that all opportunities are gone. Right now it seems that most if not all opportunities will be gone.
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Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
88,442
Hopefully I am not right, but in the next 2-3 years future of humanity might be decided and probably not in our favor. I highly doubt we will live to 2030 following the current path or if we do everything will be much worse.
I think we have reached a point in time when we can't cope with the level of technological progress and things are going out of control much faster than the average human can comprehend.

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In what way do you see AI as a threat on such a huge scale? I mean, you mention the end of the world so Im curious how do you see the upcoming years.
 

pavelnel

Senior Member
Oct 24, 2006
2,474
In what way do you see AI as a threat on such a huge scale? I mean, you mention the end of the world so Im curious how do you see the upcoming years.
I see mass unemployment pretty soon, maybe next year. I mean millions and millions of jobs, possibly hundreds of millions, non stop layoffs, financial system decimated... White collar jobs disappearing first, then blue collar jobs. The governments can probably slow down this a bit but if development of AI is not completely stoped this will be a band-aid on a RPG wound. These valuations of every assets are just pure fiction based on projections that there will be demand for these services and goods. How will people without jobs, prospects and purpose spend on anything except survival?

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Apr 12, 2004
77,165
I see mass unemployment pretty soon, maybe next year. I mean millions and millions of jobs, possibly hundreds of millions, non stop layoffs, financial system decimated... White collar jobs disappearing first, then blue collar jobs. The governments can probably slow down this a bit but if development of AI is not completely stoped this will be a band-aid on a RPG wound. These valuations of every assets are just pure fiction based on projections that there will be demand for these services and goods. How will people without jobs, prospects and purpose spend on anything except survival?

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:lol2:

Bro, you seem to forget the business world, in general, is resistant to change. Plus, the businesses themselves would have to implement it, fucking themselves up.
 

pavelnel

Senior Member
Oct 24, 2006
2,474
2:

Bro, you seem to forget the business world, in general, is resistant to change. Plus, the businesses themselves would have to implement it, fucking themselves up.
Oh, but they are already doing it.
CEOs are not interested in the long term or how their actions impact the overall economic environment. They are interested in short term profits and quarterly results. In short term AI will increase productivity and thus profits.
They are also incentivised to look for productivity gains while there has been a shortage of workers. AI gives them that leverage. Since the start of the year more than 150 000 people in tech in USA lost their jobs. True, they were mainly business personal but soon junior specialists will follow.
Microsoft is already testing AI across all its products with many big companies. Soon we will have AI producing short video clips and short after that longer and longer clips. Every day there are news about AI being trained faster and faster with less resources.
I advise all of you to wake up and start preparing for the inevitable. I won't be sleepwalking into this without preparation.

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Apr 12, 2004
77,165
The purpose of all CEOs is to maximize profits, it's all they are supposed to do. They answer to investors.

The tech industry was super bloated, especially after 2020, ask @swag .

I'm not saying you aren't correct across the board, only that it will not be as bad as you expect. Did the mechanization of the car industry and other manufacturing moving overseas cause the loss of jobs for the entire country? No, of course not.

Now, where there is REAL potential is self-driving trucks. Here and in Europe, will be a game changer. We are still 15 or 20 years from that, though. You are talking about a seven-year span where "hundreds of millions" of jobs could be lost. You realize that tanks the profits we already spoke about initially. An unemployment rate of 8% is high, what do you think the markets are going to do when it's 58%?
 

GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
69,339
Oh, but they are already doing it.
CEOs are not interested in the long term or how their actions impact the overall economic environment. They are interested in short term profits and quarterly results. In short term AI will increase productivity and thus profits.
They are also incentivised to look for productivity gains while there has been a shortage of workers. AI gives them that leverage. Since the start of the year more than 150 000 people in tech in USA lost their jobs. True, they were mainly business personal but soon junior specialists will follow.
Microsoft is already testing AI across all its products with many big companies. Soon we will have AI producing short video clips and short after that longer and longer clips. Every day there are news about AI being trained faster and faster with less resources.
I advise all of you to wake up and start preparing for the inevitable. I won't be sleepwalking into this without preparation.

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I could see that happen more on the tech side of things which in the US is mostly outsourced one way or the other anyway. But your outlook is way too bleak, consumer resistance to AI and market adaptability will open up new doors.
 

pavelnel

Senior Member
Oct 24, 2006
2,474
I hope both of you are right but I just don't believe humanity has 10-15 years to steer clear from the abyss. Max 5-7 years.

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Bianconero_Aus

Beppe Marotta Is My God
May 26, 2009
77,015
Holy moly. I was not ready at all to have children in my 20s. 39 now, and sorta feeling ready, but want to wait a couple more years. Girlfriend is 31 and in a rush. Apparently it’s higher risk after 34 for disabilities for women. So I have 2-3 years to decide. If I do have kids, I don’t really want to have them after about 42 though, so that works I guess.
I’m about to have my third one and I’m 38 in two weeks.

Having kids is the best decision I’ve made in my life. They are hard work, exhausting, tiring and often times annoying, but watching them grow up and develop and learn new things about the world makes it all the more rewarding.

You’d make a great dad. Do it brah.
 

pavelnel

Senior Member
Oct 24, 2006
2,474
Nope, because I have to take care of other people, but when society collapses I doubt self reliance will help you much.
And what am I going to do all day even if I was alone and completely self reliant? Without society my quality of life collapses tremendously. We will go back to the dark ages because we are stupid and utterly selfish.

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GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
69,339
Nope, because I have to take care of other people, but when society collapses I doubt self reliance will help you much.
And what am I going to do all day even if I was alone and completely self reliant? Without society my quality of life collapses tremendously. We will go back to the dark ages because we are stupid and utterly selfish.

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Then worry about that when and if it ever happens. Humans are resilient, yes tough times are an inextricable part of the human experience, but hope will keep us trucking.
 

AFL_ITALIA

MAGISTERIAL
Jun 17, 2011
29,615
No reason not to have a family imo. There’s a risk with every child. And there’s so much more help nowadays for kids with special needs compared to previous times.
Not sure how it is there, but doesn't seem that way here. I have a second cousin who has a son with autism, he's a big kid. He is also paranoid, delusional, and gets violent now. Probably the type that would end up pushing someone onto the subway tracks randomly for some reason. They had to move to the other side of the country to have him institutionalized after he ended up attacking a nurse, and even his own father once. There's no helping that, you can't fix that. God knows what it costs too. The rest of their lives now they will have to worry about that kid.
 

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