'Murica! (141 Viewers)

[campionesidd]

Yep. Some of my friends are really big into that guy, but anybody can make an aggregated poll based on data from all polls. If all the polls are flawed then all you have is just a really big flawed model.

These guys do this analysis for a living.
They had the most accurate model in 2016.
They’ve also made changes to learn from the mistakes of 2016, and so have most pollsters.
These videos explain them well.

 

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[lgorTudor]

It's not only based on polling data, although it's still the most important factor. Here's a more detailed explanation of their methodology.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...orks-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/

Excuse me, did you just post something by Nate Silver while being an advocate of seemingly objective sources?

Spoiler

 

[swag]

Yep. Some of my friends are really big into that guy, but anybody can make an aggregated poll based on data from all polls. If all the polls are flawed then all you have is just a really big flawed model.

Yup. Your model is only as good as its inputs.

Question to the Americans: What tv station is the fastest and most reliable on election night in terms of reporting the votes?

That's a trick question. Because you're asking for two things that, IMO, are generally opposing forces. Fastest is never most reliable, and most reliable is never fastest.

 

[il brutto]

Excuse me, did you just post something by Nate Silver while being an advocate of seemingly objective sources?

Spoiler

Data is not for everyone. Some prefer to rely on feelings and I'm not judging anyone for that.

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Yup. Your model is only as good as its inputs.

"All models are wrong, but some are useful"

 

[Enron]

Question to the Americans: What tv station is the fastest and most reliable on election night in terms of reporting the votes?

none of them, speed isn’t necessarily the most reliable on election night. Just tune in somewhere at midnight Texas time.

 

[campionesidd]

Data is not for everyone. Some prefer to rely on feelings and I'm not judging anyone for that.

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"All models are wrong, but some are useful"

These simplistic dismissals of the data are hilarious.
We should abandon all sorts of probabilistic modelling in that case, because they aren't 100% accurate.

 

[Völler]

Yup. Your model is only as good as its inputs.



That's a trick question. Because you're asking for two things that, IMO, are generally opposing forces. Fastest is never most reliable, and most reliable is never fastest.

none of them, speed isn’t necessarily the most reliable on election night. Just tune in somewhere at midnight Texas time.

Ok, let me rephrase the question then: What tv station is the most tolerable to follow on election night?

 

[campionesidd]

Ok, let me rephrase the question then: What tv station is the most tolerable to follow on election night?

Depends on who you want to win, and who is winning.

 

[swag]

"All models are wrong, but some are useful"

George Box! Yes....

These simplistic dismissals of the data are hilarious.
We should abandon all sorts of probabilistic modelling in that case, because they aren't 100% accurate.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I love my data. But people need to be more skeptical with it. To add to the George Box classic quote above, here's another one of my favorites from Ronald H. Coase:

"If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.”

There is a major difference between data-driven and data-informed. The human brain needs to engage with it and ask hard questions of what is being measured and how. Because a lot of statistical analyses in the social studies are prone to disastrous assumptions.

Ok, let me rephrase the question then: What tv station is the most tolerable to follow on election night?

This will probably sound rather droll and lefty, but I would honestly go with PBS. Sure, you won't get someone jumping on top of a desk wetting his pants as you would with the other networks. But you're more likely to get a reasoned evaluation of things with the right level of skepticism.

 

[X Æ A-12]

Question to the Americans: What tv station is the fastest and most reliable on election night in terms of reporting the votes?

CNN claims to be like 2 seconds faster than the others

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

The early voting lines here are crazy, some stretch for blocks. I've never seen anything like this here before.

 

[Juventus 32]

You can see his wife whisper "Trump"

 

[Hust]

Quite the bump over last week. I guess it’s the 50 Cent/Ice Cube effect

 

[AFL_ITALIA]

Would have to be, I don't remember anything else "big" happening. Let's see if that translates to votes at the polls though.

 

[campionesidd]

What a snowflake lmao

 

[IliveForJuve]

My family hoping that Trump wins because "we are lost if socialist scum also wins in the US". Lol

 

[campionesidd]

My family hoping that Trump wins because "we are lost if socialist scum also wins in the US". Lol

If they think Biden is a socialist, I have a pyramid scheme to sell them.

 

[swag]

And here I spent a bit of yesterday afternoon at the Museum of Aljube Resistance and Freedom where I saw the history that included the Movement of National Antifacist Unity founded back in 1943 against the Salazar dictatorship.

And yet it's not "antifa".

 

[lgorTudor]

And here I spent a bit of yesterday afternoon at the Museum of Aljube Resistance and Freedom where I saw the history that included the Movement of National Antifacist Unity founded back in 1943 against the Salazar dictatorship.

And yet it's not "antifa".

Check out Museu de Marinha

It's coolio

 

[swag]

Check out Museu de Marinha

It's coolio

I have!