Greater government spending adds directly to GDP and jobs, while the higher tax burden has an indirect impact through business investment and the spending and saving behavior of high-income households. Since these households will not reduce their spending one-for-one in response to their higher tax bills and will use their savings and other financial resources, the near-term impact on GDP and jobs is mitigated.
Longer-term growth under Biden’s policies is also stronger because on net they expand the supply side of the economy—the quantity and quality of labor and capital needed to produce goods and services. His plan to increase spending on the nation’s infrastructure also boosts business competitiveness and productivity. His paid family leave and elder care plans would increase labor force participation, which is approximately a percentage point higher a decade from now as a result, while increased spending on higher education and early childhood education would raise the educational attainment of workers. Increased global trade and foreign immigration would increase the size of the workforce, both skilled and unskilled, and support stronger productivity.
These benefits to long-term growth will more than offset the economic costs from the higher marginal corporate and personal tax rates under his plan that reduce the incentives to save, invest and work, the disincentives to work and save from the larger social benefits, and the higher federal minimum wage that would be phased in over a long enough period to mitigate much of its negative effects on jobs.