Mafia 2020 - Find the carrier (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Tomice
- Start date
Well, there's a 1/11 chance of that, while there's 1/9 chance that the Gs would waste a whack on the BG 
Did I count right?
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Also, there is a 1/12 chance that Osman is the D and we're safe there.
A 1/12 chance that the mofo is the BG, though
What do we do? We go with no lynch?
Here are all the percentages:
1) If the BG reveals himself, the Gs have 14% chance to whack the D (if Osman is a C)
2) if the BG reveals himself, the Gs have 12.5% to whack the D (if Osman is a G)
3) If the BG doesn't reveal himself, the Gs have 12.5% to whack the D (if Osman is C)
4) If the BG doesn't reveal himself, the Gs have a 11% chance to whack the D (if Osman is a G)
So, the Gs chance to whack the D increases by 1.5% if the BG reveals himself
5) If the BG doesn't reveal himself, the Gs have 12.5 chance to waste a whack if Osman is a C, and 11% to waste a whack if Osman is a G.
6) If the BG reveals himself, the D has a 30% chance to investigate a G.
7) if the BG doesn't reveal himself, the D has a 27% chance to investigate a G.
What should prevail? The 3% better chance for the D to get it right, or the 1.5% risk to lose the D?
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One more thing...
What if the D investigates a G tonight?
What does he do? Go public and tell us?
Remember that the Gs will find out via the crooked cop who was investigated and the investigated G can claim to be the D and confuse us all. We might even lynch a C tomorrow.
I did this already as a G once or twice.
That's why we need the BG to go public. The D will tell him via PM who he'll investigate and if the investigated person turns out to be a G, the BG will tell us this information, protecting the D's identity during the process.
@piotrr Percentage wise it makes sense to investigate Osman, but I would prefer if the D simply follows his instinct. He should investigate who he finds most suspicious and not who we tell him to.
1) If the BG reveals himself, the Gs have 14% chance to whack the D (if Osman is a C)
2) if the BG reveals himself, the Gs have 12.5% to whack the D (if Osman is a G)
3) If the BG doesn't reveal himself, the Gs have 12.5% to whack the D (if Osman is C)
4) If the BG doesn't reveal himself, the Gs have a 11% chance to whack the D (if Osman is a G)
So, the Gs chance to whack the D increases by 1.5% if the BG reveals himself
5) If the BG doesn't reveal himself, the Gs have 12.5 chance to waste a whack if Osman is a C, and 11% to waste a whack if Osman is a G.
6) If the BG reveals himself, the D has a 30% chance to investigate a G.
7) if the BG doesn't reveal himself, the D has a 27% chance to investigate a G.
What should prevail? The 3% better chance for the D to get it right, or the 1.5% risk to lose the D?
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One more thing...
What if the D investigates a G tonight?
What does he do? Go public and tell us?
Remember that the Gs will find out via the crooked cop who was investigated and the investigated G can claim to be the D and confuse us all. We might even lynch a C tomorrow.
I did this already as a G once or twice.
That's why we need the BG to go public. The D will tell him via PM who he'll investigate and if the investigated person turns out to be a G, the BG will tell us this information, protecting the D's identity during the process.
@piotrr Percentage wise it makes sense to investigate Osman, but I would prefer if the D simply follows his instinct. He should investigate who he finds most suspicious and not who we tell him to.
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And have in mind that the Gs know much more than the Cs do. They want to find the D and the jailer. The lawyer too, but that guy is harder to discover.
Right now they are probably analyzing who jailed Osman. Some of you already made yourselves good suspects for the jailer role. They won't whack the potential jailer, but they will try to recruit him later. I hope that the jailer was smart not to accuse Osman and then jail him.
They want to hit the D tonight. They can't hit Osman if he's a C and they won't hit the 1-2 suspects who they think are the jailer. I think they will exclude me as a potential D. That will leave them 5-6 potential candidates for the D role. If the BG reveals himself, it's gonna make a smaller short list for them and that's the risk for the civilians.
But if the BG reveals himself and the D contacts the BG, the Gs won't really know who will the BG protect. Will he protect himself or the detective?. What to do then? Shall they try to whack the BG after all? Or will they say "fuck it, lets try to just kill a civilian". "Which one?" "Just whack Janna or Mr. Chocolate".
So many options
Right now they are probably analyzing who jailed Osman. Some of you already made yourselves good suspects for the jailer role. They won't whack the potential jailer, but they will try to recruit him later. I hope that the jailer was smart not to accuse Osman and then jail him.
They want to hit the D tonight. They can't hit Osman if he's a C and they won't hit the 1-2 suspects who they think are the jailer. I think they will exclude me as a potential D. That will leave them 5-6 potential candidates for the D role. If the BG reveals himself, it's gonna make a smaller short list for them and that's the risk for the civilians.
But if the BG reveals himself and the D contacts the BG, the Gs won't really know who will the BG protect. Will he protect himself or the detective?. What to do then? Shall they try to whack the BG after all? Or will they say "fuck it, lets try to just kill a civilian". "Which one?" "Just whack Janna or Mr. Chocolate".
So many options
