Mafia 2020 - Find the carrier (4 Viewers)

[Klin]

There was only like a 11% chance of that happening anyway

You and Alennnnn

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It has been 1 hour and 30 minutes you should have been home

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piotrr is the jailer

 

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[Osman]

if you’re a G, who do you recruit?

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typical G behavior

Janna for sure.

 

[Alen]

Why should the BG trust the jailer? How can the BG decide between 2 persons claiming to be the jailer on the first day?

If two people claim to be the jailer, one will be a G.
That's a big risk for the Gs to take. And the jailer won't know who's the detective.

And also, the BG will tell the jailer who to jail. If two people claim to be the jailer and the BG gives different names to them, he'll know who's lying.

 

[ALC]

Janna for sure.

no one would suspect a thing

 

[Völler]

On day 1 the BG always protects himself. Even if he doesn't go public, he'll protect himself.
This won't be a long game. It's gonna last 2-5 days.
The Cs can't allow to lose a single day, because, like I said 3 times already, the game could be over by tomorrow night.

If I'm the D, I'd now know that of the remaining 11 players, 3 are Gs and 8 are Cs. I'd also know that I can't go wrong more than once. My day 1 investigation would be crucial. I'd love to eliminate as many suspects possible. If I know who's the BG, then its 1 less suspect.

Also, the BG goes public. Then he asks the jailer to contact him in the next 20 minutes and they decide together who to jail (the jailer has 35 minutes left to jail someone). The BG knows who's the jailer.
Then he asks the D to contact him and gives the D 3 hours to do that. If only 1 person contacts him in those 3 hours, it's likely that it's the real D. The BG tells the D who's the jailer, so now the D has one more guy to eliminate and he has 9 persons left, 1/3 of which are Gs.

I had to reread it a few times, but your plan makes sense (even if it's pretty elaborate), and I get the argument that it's a short game. I'm not entirely opposed to this, but you're counting on a lot of people being active and being able to take quick decisions.

 

[Klin]

If two people claim to be the jailer, one will be a G.
That's a big risk for the Gs to take. And the jailer won't know who's the detective.

Sure, but the BG's identity is still exposed with the Gs. I don't see how it's such a big risk for the Gs, especially since they can then recruit (and if the BG is not smart he could help them recruit the actual jailer).

 

[Völler]

If two people claim to be the jailer, one will be a G.
That's a big risk for the Gs to take. And the jailer won't know who's the detective.

And also, the BG will tell the jailer who to jail. If two people claim to be the jailer and the BG gives different names to them, he'll know who's lying.

The G's claiming to be the jailer is not gonna happen. I could see one of them pretending to be the detective, however.

 

[Alen]

Sure, but the BG's identity is still exposed with the Gs. I don't see how it's such a big risk for the Gs, especially since they can then recruit (and if the BG is not smart he could help them recruit the actual jailer).

Nothing can be perfect and risk free at this point.

The problem is, if the Cs do nothing at all, we'll have 2 Cs dead tonight and possibly 2 more and GO tomorrow.

People should stop worrying about being killed in this virtual game and start acting. I don't see how anyone who's not a G doesn't see this.

 

[campionesidd]

The G's claiming to be the jailer is not gonna happen. I could see one of them pretending to be the detective, however.

which roles do you think should stay quiet and which ones should come forward?
i think the jailer can come out but it’s too risky for the BG to do so.

 

[Völler]

which roles do you think should stay quiet and which ones should come forward?
i think the jailer can come out but it’s too risky for the BG to do so.

If the jailer comes out, he will get recruited.

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So obviously the jailer and detective should never ever say anything.

 

[Alen]

The G's claiming to be the jailer is not gonna happen. I could see one of them pretending to be the detective, however.

Ok, lets entertain that.

The real D and a G write to the BG that they're the D. Since the BG gives 3 hours for the D to come out, once these 3 hours are over and the BG realizes that 2 claimed to be the D, he doesn't tell neither of them who's the jailer. That makes it harder for the real D to investigate tonight, but at least the BG knows that one of the two is a G and it gives him some room to operate tomorrow.

 

[Klin]

The BG coming out on the first day helps the Cs now (not by a lot) but it will help the Gs even more in the long run by a lot. Care to share %, @Quetzalcoatl?

The problem is that there may not be a long run in this game.

 

[Alen]

No, the jailer MUST NOT come out.
He only tells his role to the BG, noone else.

But for that to happen, we need the BG to go public right now, the jailer to immediately write to him, the BG to tell the jailer who to jail and then the BG waits to see if it's the real jailer.

But the jailer has it until 18 CET to jail someone and that's 15 minutes from now. The BG is fucking this up right now.

 

[Osman]

Wait, so auto-lynch if you don't post 15 times a day?

Half of us will be dead by tonight

Just saw that, rule should be normal 5 posts. 15 is a stretch lol.

 

[Alen]

The BG coming out on the first day helps the Cs now (not by a lot) but it will help the Gs even more in the long run by a lot. Care to share %, @Quetzalcoatl?

The problem is that there may not be a long run in this game.

That's the problem, there is no long run in a game of 12 participants.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

The BG coming out on the first day helps the Cs now (not by a lot) but it will help the Gs even more in the long run by a lot. Care to share %, @Quetzalcoatl?

The problem is that there may not be a long run in this game.

You said yourself, there is no long run

The BG being public isn't a big risk at all. Just means one less whacking option for the Gs.

So the odds of them finding the D goes from 11.1% to 12.5%

 

[Klin]

Just saw that, rule should be normal 5 posts. 15 is a stretch lol.

Should the BG come out today?

 

[Tomice]

If there is one thing our town sheriff doesn't like it's smug faces

Osman Is Jailed

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

No, the jailer MUST NOT come out.
He only tells his role to the BG, noone else.

But for that to happen, we need the BG to go public right now, the jailer to immediately write to him, the BG to tell the jailer who to jail and then the BG waits to see if it's the real jailer.

But the jailer has it until 18 CET to jail someone and that's 15 minutes from now. The BG is fucking this up right now.

Seconded, do it BG

 

[Osman]

Perfect, now everyone thinks Alen is a C since his recommendation about no day 1 recruiting appears to harms the Gs, but is not really so. They would have waited some time to use it more strategically anyway.

Nice try.

Thats true. And he posts like that no matter what anyways.