Mafia 2015.5 || 'Tuz: The Beginning (16 Viewers)

[Alen]

In case JJ is a G and X a C, then me and Fred obviously saved him and we should be targets.
In case X is a G and JJ a C, then 2 or 3 of the 4 assholes who voted Matt are Gs
In case both are C, then Hoori is actually my main suspect and she played a brilliant game.
In case both are G... nah, they are not.

 

Buy on AliExpress.com

[SABSAB]

Dammit Sabet, you must have played

I do miss it.

 

[Quetzalcoatl]

In case JJ is a G and X a C, then me and Fred obviously saved him and we should be targets.
In case X is a G and JJ a C, then 2 or 3 of the 4 assholes who voted Matt are Gs
In case both are C, then Hoori is actually my main suspect and she played a brilliant game.
In case both are G... nah, they are not.

You sound like you're convinced I'm a C. Why?

 

[WΏΏdy?]

At one point, when X had the most votes, I even changed from him to RUS because it seemed noone's trying to save X except Hoori with her no lynch. But all of a sudden folks started voting Matt and at one point X was saved. And all this happened in a matter of 3-4 minutes.
It looked orchestrated. Matt was almost surely a sacrificial lamb and a civilian.
In such a situation every normal civilian should have voted for X, but only me and Fred did it. I'll ignore the less experienced players, but it's crazy how the more experienced players didn't vote for X at that point... Well, unless they were Gs.

- - - Updated - - -

Woody, you were sending people PMs and reps to vote for Matt instead of X?

Not a single PM, i sent a rep to Fred to vote matt or maddy since they were closest to X and i sent another rep to Klin asking him who we should go for between the two since he was on the same page as me regarding this. I also posted the same thing quoting fred where he was asking for a suggestion on who to vote.

 

[Alen]

You sound like you're convinced I'm a C. Why?

I wouldn't bet my right hand that you're not a G, but it's a minor chance that a bunch of Cs simply decided to protect X and then chose a G to vote for.
It's possible, but hard to believe.

Also, you were saved by me, not by an organized group. I know my role.

 

[WΏΏdy?]

Well, let's see what X and the inactives have to say tomorrow. Im done for the night.

See you tomorrow.

 

[king Ale]

Alright here we go: since i'm bored and crazy, this is a quick review of what happened around the deadline. I had high hopes i'd be able to find some clues but it's a lot more messed up than i imagined. It may sound as though i'm coding gibberish but it's worth looking into:

30 mins to deadline: X has three votes and I feel he has to be a c cause nobody seems to be saving him. There is one vote for no lynch. I decide to vote no lynch and try to convince a couple more cs to follow me, reason being a combination of (i don't suspect anyone in particular & i'm not really sure if x is a C so i don't want to sacrifice a C only because i feel X is a C and i like to keep him in the game). I'm also thinking: if X is a G, i'm giving his mates a very good option in no lynch: it's safe, justifiable and is gonna save their g buddy. ALC comes and votes X. So, 30 mins to the deadline and: X (4: Alen, Rus, Fresh, ALC) - Matt (2: Radekas, Voller) - No lynch (2: woody, hoori).

Fred: {If x was a g sm1 would have saved him by now.}
Fred: {no lynch.}
X (4), no lynch (3), matt (2)

Alen: {Rus}
Alen: {I don't have anyone to vote for. I'm sorry. If it's not RUS, I'll have to go back to X, or perhaps Radekas/Ocelot.}
X (3), no lynch (3), matt (2)

10 mins left:
Matt: {Hey I really don't want X to get lynched but for my own security X.}
X (4: Rus, Fresh, ALC, Matt) - no lynch (3: Hoori, woody, fred) - Matt (Voller, Radekas)

9 mins left:
Fred: {I'm thinking of doing a really ballsy move}

Voller:{ Maddy}
X (4), no lynch (3), Matt (1)

Klin: {Matt}
X (4), No lynch (3), Matt (2)

Fred: {Guys should i save x by voting for matt?
Quick answrrs pls}

8 mins left:
Matt: {No lynch}
X (3: ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (4: Hoori, woody, fred, matt), Matt (2: radekas, Klin)

7 mins left:
Fred: {Shit jj doesnt have enough votes anymore. I wanna save, how?? Suggestions}

6 mins left:
Woody: {Matt}
X (3: ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (3: Hoori, fred, matt), Matt (3: woody, radekas, Klin)

Ocelot: {I'd be willing to go Jihadi John before no lynch.}

5 mins left:
Klin: {Go for Matt. @Fred you too. Save X and don't go for no lynch.}

Matt: {Jeez wtf, why me?
Fuck it X [his move here makes sense].}
X (4: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (2: Hoori, fred), Matt (4: ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

Alen (to Klin): {Are you saving X?}

Fred: {Guys should I vote jj, quick answers please!!!!!}

4 mins left:
Kyle: {No lynch for now.}
X (4: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (3: Hoori, fred, Kyle), Matt (4: ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

3 mins left:
Klin: {Save X. Go for Matt.}

Ocelot: {No fucking no lynch man, Jihadi John}
X (4: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (3: Hoori, fred, Kyle), Matt (4: ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

2 mins left:
Fred to Alen: {No lynch or jj I'll lsn to whatever you say}

Alen: {Why Matt?
Are you fuckers saving X? }

1 min left:
Voller: {As I said, I'm changing back to Jihadi John since nobody is voting for Maddy. It's a shot in the dark, but I think he's more likely to be a G than X.}
X (4: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus), No lynch (2: Hoori, Kyle), Matt (5: Voller, ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

Alen: {It's crazy how you grouped yourselves to save X}

Fred:{ X}

Alen: {Hmmm
X}
X (6: Matt, ALC, Fresh, Rus, Alen, Fred), No lynch (2: Hoori, Kyle), Matt (4: ocelot, woody, radekas, Klin)

Voting is over:
Fred: {Jihadi John}

- - - Updated - - -

First of all, Fred isn't as suspicious as i was thinking. Only one thing is bugging me a little: he's referring to Matt mostly as JJ. Then when time is pressing and he's got to be quick to change his vote, he cares enough to actually write down "Jihadi John". That was weird.

That said, i believe what we can figure from what happened around the deadline is that X is a C. Reason is, Gs DID HAVE the no lynch option. When a G is in danger, the biggest priority is to save him/her, not to make sure a civilian is gone. If X was a g and gs were trying to save him, why did they have to vote Matt (a civilian if X is a g) instead of conveniently voting no lynch? That's because they did not want a no lynch cause X and then most probably Matt were both Cs.

 

[Klin]

What was @Fred's ballsy move he was thinking of before he apparently forgot all about it and started asking people what to do?

 

[king Ale]

What was @Fred's ballsy move he was thinking of before he apparently forgot all about it and started asking people what to do?

Voting Matt to save X.

 

[Klin]

Hoori

- - - Updated - - -

Voting Matt to save X.

But it doesn't make sense because Matt was still with 2 votes when he said that. His vote would have still made it count to 3.

 

[king Ale]

All permutations:

X is G, Matt is C, Alen is G ~ impossible given Alen's last minute vote.
X is C, Matt is C, Alen is G ~ impossible given Alen's last minute vote.
X is G, Matt is G, Alen is G ~ impossible given nobody went for no lynch.
X is G, Matt is G, Alen is C ~ impossible given nobody went for no lynch.

Two interesting things so far:
1) Alen and G cannot be both Gs (because look at the four remaining options below in bold, in none of which Alen and X are both Gs).
2) Alen is G ONLY if X is a C and Matt is a G (so Matt, if you are a C, you should be sure as hell that Alen is a C )

X is G, Matt is C, Alen is C ~ I rule this out cause I think if X was a G, no lynch would have been used to save his ass.
X is C, Matt is G, Alen is C ~ This means that Matt's fate was actually determined by a C in the last minute, which doesn't make any sense so I tend to rule this out.

These two are imo the only possible options:
X is C, Matt is G, Alen is G
X is C, Matt is C, Alen is C

 

[Alen]

There is one vote in particular that you failed to register, Hoori.

At 4:4 and 1-2 minutes till the end, Voller voted Matt and made it: Matt 5:4 Deneb

It's here where I became 100% sure that the Gs are saving X. It seemed crazy that at 4:4 and a minute left, a normal C would decide the tie just like that.
I voted X to make it 5:5 but in the same second Fred also voted him.

It was a crazy switch of votes.
Also, we must remember that X wasn't here in the last hour. If he's a G that leaves us with maximum 3 Gs online, and probably there were less because lots of members weren't here (RUS, Kate, Janna, Tomice, Zach etc). Perhaps the Gs did follow you on no lynch, but once they saw it's not working they switched to Matt?

Are there players who did that? Let me check.

 

[Fr3sh]

So Fred is the g.

 

[king Ale]

There is one vote in particular that you failed to register, Hoori.

At 4:4 and 1-2 minutes till the end, Voller voted Matt and made it: Matt 5:4 Deneb

It's here where I became 100% sure that the Gs are saving X. It seemed crazy that at 4:4 and a minute left, a normal C would decide the tie just like that.
I voted X to make it 5:5 but in the same second Fred also voted him.

It was a crazy switch of votes.
Also, we must remember that X wasn't here in the last hour. If he's a G that leaves us with maximum 3 Gs online, and probably there were less because lots of members weren't here (RUS, Kate, Janna, Tomice, Zach etc). Perhaps the Gs did follow you on no lynch, but once they saw it's not working they switched to Matt?

Are there players who did that? Let me check.

Ah yes you are right. Voller made it 5:4.

It doesn't change my conclusion though (it's making you a little less suspicious). No one really followed no lynch. Only Fred in the beginning, Kyle a few mins away from the deadline, and Matt here and there but his moves were understandable.

As I said, you three are either all Cs, or you and Matt are Gs.

 

[Völler]

All permutations:

X is G, Matt is C, Alen is G ~ impossible given Alen's last minute vote.
X is C, Matt is C, Alen is G ~ impossible given Alen's last minute vote.
X is G, Matt is G, Alen is G ~ impossible given nobody went for no lynch.
X is G, Matt is G, Alen is C ~ impossible given nobody went for no lynch.

Two interesting things so far:
1) Alen and G cannot be both Gs (because look at the four remaining options below in bold, in none of which Alen and X are both Gs).
2) Alen is G ONLY if X is a C and Matt is a G (so Matt, if you are a C, you should be sure as hell that Alen is a C )

X is G, Matt is C, Alen is C ~ I rule this out cause I think if X was a G, no lynch would have been used to save his ass.
X is C, Matt is G, Alen is C ~ This means that Matt's fate was actually determined by a C in the last minute, which doesn't make any sense so I tend to rule this out.

These two are imo the only possible options:
X is C, Matt is G, Alen is G
X is C, Matt is C, Alen is C

Great job. I honestly think the last scenario is the likeliest. Would Alen really go out and save Matt in such a risky way if he was a fellow G? I honestly doubt it.

I don't understand why you're ruling out "X is C, Matt is G, Alen is C" though. To me that seems like a possible scenario. People don't have much to go by, and quite a few voted for Matt to avoid a no lynch majority.

Also, why are you not including Fred in those scenarios?

 

[king Ale]

Since i'm almost 100% convinced that X is a C, those who voted Matt have to be Cs: Voller, ocelot (RIP ), woody, radekas, Klin.

 

[Völler]

There is one vote in particular that you failed to register, Hoori.

At 4:4 and 1-2 minutes till the end, Voller voted Matt and made it: Matt 5:4 Deneb

It's here where I became 100% sure that the Gs are saving X. It seemed crazy that at 4:4 and a minute left, a normal C would decide the tie just like that.

You're forgetting that I was the second person who voted for Matt though, and only changed to Maddy because he became even more suspicious. I wrote that I'd change my vote back on Matt if nobody else voted for Maddy.

 

[king Ale]

Great job. I honestly think the last scenario is the likeliest. Would Alen really go out and save Matt in such a risky way if he was a fellow G? I honestly doubt it.

I don't understand why you're ruling out "X is C, Matt is G, Alen is C" though. To me that seems like a possible scenario. People don't have much to go by, and quite a few voted for Matt to avoid a no lynch majority.

Also, why are you not including Fred in those scenarios?

I just don't find that likely because if it is the case, it means that ALL gs must have already voted X so there was no other G left to vote X. Note that it was 5:4 for Matt before Alen's vote and based on this scenario (X is C, Matt is G, Alen is C), Alen is a C. This either means that almost all of Matt, ALC, Fresh and Rus are Gs OR it means that 2-3 of those 4 alongside with Fred are Gs. It's not impossible but unlikely imo. I really really really think we should go after one of Fresh, ALC or Rus tomorrow. We'll have answers to a lot of questions.

I didn't include Fred cause that would have doubled the content of my analysis

 

[GordoDeCentral]

sorry i crashed, guess that lack of sleep gets to you eventually

Why can't you accept that people were not convinced that X is a G and tried to save a player that won the last game for the Cs? You are the only player certain that X is a G and your last second vote makes you as much of a suspect as you try to sell people voting for JJ.

because hes a G

Since i'm almost 100% convinced that X is a C, those who voted Matt have to be Cs: Voller, ocelot (RIP ), woody, radekas, Klin.

thats coz you the smartest

was @Fred really trying to get rid of me with the whole im lost in the woods routine


my interpretation of the last half hour

 

[Völler]

I really really really think we should go after one of Fresh, ALC or Rus tomorrow. We'll have answers to a lot of questions.

How is that?

As I have said countless times, I doubt RUS is a G. His indifferent persona and the fact that his invisibility filter isn't on just doesn't make me suspicious of him and all. No way RUS would bother turning the filter on and off all the time.

Fr3sh lame reason to vote X makes him suspicious, but he's Fr3sh, and he could be fooling around.

ALC is suspicious because of his late arrival and two votes in a short time. Him voting for RUS only to change it to X shortly afterwards was weird. It could be him trying to save Matt from lynching, but then, Matt only had two votes at the time.

---

Personally, I really want to go after Maddy tomorrow. If he's a G, it could explain why Ocelot got whacked since he was the first to really put pressure on Maddy. Of course, that alone is a far-fetched theory. But looking at Maddy, and how he plays, he just seems to lack reasonable explanations for his actions.

20 min before deadline he decides to vote for RUS. There are zero votes on RUS at that time. And nothing suggest other votes would follow.

RUS

No reason to keep a loose cannon.

He doesn't change his vote after I tell him about the fact doesn't have the invisibility on. Unlike me he thinks RUS would bother turning the invisibility filter on and off:

Great reasoning.

RUS have no life outside the Internet. Obviously he's capable of turning that shit off.

Shortly after he says he's confident RUS is a C, but votes on him despite that:

I'm quite confident he is a C. But I won't vote on a decent-great C.

I suggest him voting on another loose cannon like Fr3sh, who actually picked up heat earlier. But he doesn't care about the fact that his vote won't matter at all.

Don't care. It's the first day. I'll stick to my first day strategy.

In addition to that, Ocelot might have a point about this:

Come on man, you're here apparently as you're always popping up as soon as someone votes you, but don't really post on your own, that's not like your normal C self.

My point is that Maddy isn't making any sense in anything he has done the whole day. Bad reasoning for his votes and little interest in who's actually getting the most number of votes. Very unlike how Maddy normally plays. Add Ocelot's suspicion and the fact Ocelot got whacked to that.