Global Financial Crisis (6 Viewers)

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,995
Heh... on the same day I made my "don't buy silver now" post, the market went from 50 to 45 in a day. Silver also broke its uptrend line as well, that's never a good sign. But we'll see what happens to these prices. There's a potential that silver has at least made a short-term top.

When SLV (the silver ETF) is the number one search on Google, yeah, that's toppy behavior. Much of this depends on the FOMC meeting this week.

 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,995
A few pieces of very bad news this morning.

- The BEA released their advanced estimate of Quarter 1 GDP for 2011, coming in at 1.8%. In Quarter 4 of last year real GDP increased 3.1%. Not a very good number, and with commodity prices continuing to rise we could very well see a negative GDP number this quarter or in the next quarter. Remember, in the Great Depression we had several quarters and years of positive GDP growth.

- Jobless claims last week came in at 429,000, and the previous week's number was revised upwards again by a little over 9,000. Every single week they revise the number upwards, which is quite obviously not statistical error but outright cooking of the numbers. Anything above 400,000 claims in a week is not a sign of improvement in the labor market.

- The FOMC monthly policy statement was released yesterday and the same old nonsense continues. Bernanke and company see limited inflation, the labor market continues to improve, the economic situation continues to improve, they will maintain their zero interest rate policy, and they will continue with their securities purchases up until QE2 is scheduled to end. Everything these clowns wrote is dollar negative, and the market certainly took it that way. The Dollar Index has been down over 1% in the past day, getting closer to the point of no return from a technical perspective.

- Ben Bernanke conducted a press conference with questions after the FOMC policy statement yesterday. He was asked about whether the FED is pushing gas prices higher, and he responded by saying that a lot of factors move the price of oil and that the FED policy is promoting a strong dollar. Bullshit, you fucking piece of shit. It's all FED policy moving commodity prices higher.

Hell, the RBOB gasoline contract moved four cents higher while he was talking.



DIAF :pado:
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,995
Jobless claims this week was TERRIBLE. Last week's numbers were revised UP once again, for like the 200th week in a row.

In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 474,000, an increase of 43,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 431,000. The 4-week moving average was 431,250, an increase of 22,250 from the previous week's revised average of 409,000.
http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

Here's your recovery. :pado:
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,995
What a beautiful move though. I wish I had bought the short silver ETF last week when the price broke down below its uptrend line, but fooling around with these parabolic moves is incredibly risky. You just never know when the price will collapse, but it's a certainty that it will at some point. The problem is a lot of people will try to catch the price collapse of these three-wave patterns, then end up getting destroyed because the price rockets even higher due to short covering.

The best way to speculate in a scenario like this is to buy put options with different expirations, I think.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,995
Here's one Greg might be interested in.

CSCO layoffs biggest in history (Reuters)

Cisco Systems Inc is expected to cut thousands of jobs in possibly its worst-ever round of layoffs to meet Chief Executive John Chambers' goal of slashing costs by $1 billion.

Four analysts contacted by Reuters estimated the world's largest maker of network equipment will eliminate up to 4,000 jobs in coming months, with the average forecast at 3,000. That would represent 4 percent of Cisco's 73,000 permanent workers. It also has an undisclosed number of temporary contractors.

Cisco's previous record layoffs was set in fiscal 2002, when the company shed some 2,000 jobs, according to Canaccord Genuity analyst Paul Mansky.
That's not good news. I'm hearing that whenever Cisco is in trouble, the entire tech sector follows along half a year later. Something to watch here.
 

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