Global Financial Crisis (12 Viewers)

[Enron]

Even with the magic they pull on unemployment numbers, you can still the the trend heading away from where we want it to go. I got to spend the day going over monthly unemployment numbers for the last 20 years.

 

Buy on AliExpress.com

[Bjerknes]

Yeah, you know it's bad when the percentage of working Americans continues to decline. But since we off-shored our manufacturing base, this was always going to be the end result. We can't have everyone flipping burgers and creating internet sites.

 

[Bjerknes]

The Employment Report wasn't too good. As I expected, no change in U3. But the real crazy thing is that the BLS's Birth/Death Model of Nonfarm employment created 206,000 jobs out of thin air, the highest in over a year. So in reality, Nonfarm Payroll was vastly negative this past month. I mean, who believes this shit?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/birthdeath-adjustment-206000

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ma...k-below-consensus-165000-unemployment-rate-91

And here's an article going in depth on the numbers.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=187406

 

[swag]

But that's U.S., not necessarily "global" per the thread title, yeah?

 

[Bjerknes]

When the report was released this morning, stock index futures AND the US Dollar tanked. Usually they act like somewhat of a seesaw, but not today. Ben Bernanke must have shat his pants looking at that, as both stocks and the dollar getting crushed at the same time is the big fear.

 

[Bjerknes]

But that's U.S., not necessarily "global" per the thread title, yeah?

In most Eurozone nations, the employment situation is worse. But that's not an excuse for us. Some calculations of U6 come out to 22% if you count part-time workers as unemployed, and you might as well count them as that. Can't make a living flipping burgers 3 days a week.

 

[Bjerknes]

Claims pitiful again.

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending June 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 427,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 426,000. The 4-week moving average was 424,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 426,750.

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20110851.htm

And once again, last week was revised up by 4,000 claims. Gee, that's only a mere 500% of what they reported. Great work!

 

[Bjerknes]

You guys ready? Another summer recovery!

 

[Bjerknes]

China ratings house says US defaulting

A Chinese ratings house has accused the United States of defaulting on its massive debt, state media said Friday, a day after Beijing urged Washington to put its fiscal house in order.

"In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting," Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd., the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying.

Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies -- eroding the wealth of creditors including China, Guan said.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/china-ratings-house-says-us-defaulting-report-054309883.html

Between that and the FED buying up our own Treasuries, well no shit.

 

[Bjerknes]

Ten Things Update: 2011

If you think that Bernanke, Obama and the rest have "fixed" the economy or the banking system, stop reading now and check into the nearest mental institution for evaluation. I'm quite serious about this; given what we now know about securitized mortgages, debt in Greece and elsewhere along with 12% of GDP being literally borrowed up and spent by the government to cover up what should have been a Depression you are badly addicted to Hopium and your head has not seen daylight in two years.

So with that and the "Ten Things" Ticker as a backdrop, let's update it.

-You should be out of any floating-rate debt, and to the extent possible, be out of fixed-rate debt. If you're not, it may be too late to prevent the worst sort of damage that could come. If you have done this, congratulations. Under no circumstance should you be adding to debt obligations at this time, with one exception: extremely low-interest and fixed rate debt that you are absolutely certain you can repay, even if your income is interrupted. This has particular application for young people who are considering going to college and taking debt to do so. This is a very dangerous proposition; read my previous Tickers on this subject and ask the hard questions - this debt is not only unable to be discharged in bankruptcy but at the present time young people doing this are the only suckers left in the market adding to their debt among consumers. In short, our youth are being played. Don't be one of the suckers!

-You should have been saving 10% of your gross income and have two years of this available to you; that translates into at least 4 months of your current gross income. Note that taxes are paid on this, so you really have at least six months of living expenses. Anything in "investments" does not count; these must be liquid assets - that is, cash. Now, distribute this through various instruments and places so you cannot lose access to it even in the event of "bad" things happening.

-GET AWAY FROM THE TBTF INSTITUTIONS! They're not only "too big to fail" they're also too big to save this time around. Local credit unions are ok to a point, but look at their balance sheets. Where's the money? Even if you're under FDIC limits, be "more under" by distributing funds around.

-If you have re-entered the stock market and made money, determine where your exit points are and be damn sure you're comfortable with the risk. As I write this we're nearly 100 SPX points off the recent and multi-year highs. Again, if you believe that the problems that led the market to tag 666 on the SPX were fixed, stop reading now; this article is not for you. If, on the other hand, you do not believe this, consider what happens to that money if the SPX goes to 400 - because it both can and might.

-Be prepared to "shelter in place" or "bug out" as appropriate. "Wilding" events have already happened in some major cities. This is likely to spread if there is a "fiscal" or "monetary" accident and the "FSA" (free shit army) funds get cut off. These events could spread very quickly, and many large cities could go near-feral within days. You need to know what you're going to do about that if it happens. If you think it can't, you're wrong - it both can and might. Being prepared costs nothing. Being unprepared might cost you your life. Consider walking down the average city street with 10-story apartment buildings on both sides while carrying a bag of groceries. How many rifle barrels can be hidden behind those windows, pointed at your head? Now consider what happens when the residents in those places have no food, no money, and you've got a bag of groceries. Still comfortable walking down that street? That's what I thought. Incidentally, being "macho" (or even armed to the teeth) does you absolutely no good in such a situation; the only means of avoiding that problem is not being there if it happens.

-You already have the lawful means of self-defense, right? If not, there's still time to solve that problem, but remember: The means of lawful self-defense does not automatically confer skill in the use of same. The police exist to come take a report and zip you into a bag under normal circumstances. If the "wildings" get more-prevalent they may dispense with the report and shift to Hefty for the bag. Think about that long and hard folks; it's not hyperbole.

-Once again look at who your friends are - and aren't. Many who you think are "friends" are really "acquaintances." They're fine when things are good and ok to share a beer with, but trusting them with your life is another matter. Again, this is "no foolin'" stuff - take stock of those who are in your circle and make changes as required.

-Remember the first rules from Zombieland. No, not "double tap." Cardio. If you're a couch potato you need to fix this right now. Google up "Couch to 5k" if you need a way to get started. If you can't jog a couple of miles non-stop you're not in acceptable physical shape. The simple fact of the matter is that most of us are "sedentary" in our work nowdays and I'm willing to bet that 75% of those over 30 could not jog one ten-minute mile if it became necessary. Well, if things get dicey and you have only your feet at that instant in time to reach safety with the question becomes this: Are you going to make it or have a heart attack? One mile is simply not that far and fixing this problem can be done in eight weeks with nothing more than a pair of running shoes and 20 minutes three times a week. Do it, and do it now. This is not just about outrunning a bad situation; it's also about reducing your risk of dying when, not if, the "medical safety net" you're accustomed to today disappears. I believe it will. As such a minimum level of physical fitness is no longer optional unless you would like to make a date with St. Peter.

-Wanna be short in the market right now? Ok. But just remember my "golden rule" when it comes to these things: You cannot win a bet on the end of the world. You're either wrong and lose your money or you're right and can't collect your winnings. Therefore, discipline is key. Giddiness is way, way out of control right now in the markets, with virtually everyone thinking that "The Fed will save us all." Uh huh. How's that worked out so far with unemployment, prices on commodities such as oil and similar? The fact is this: The Fed not only has a horrifyingly bad record historically (e.g. "Subprime is contained") but in addition has done nothing to address the excess systemic leverage and has instead papered it over. A bet on this continuing is, in my view, foolish. Rather ominously a number of funds that track high-yield debt have started to roll over badly. This is not being talked about, and by the time it is, it will be too late. The first rule of investing is "don't lose your money"; all others (including "look at how much I can make!") come after that first one - never in front of it.

-Do not count on entitlements of any sort. Whether you're retired or not, figure out how you'll make it without them. I'm completely serious about this, even though I know it's well outside of consensus. The simple fact of the matter is that the United States is more than $100 trillion in the hole when one looks at the discounted future value of entitlement promises. The money doesn't exist and can't be made to exist. These entitlements on a forward basis will not be paid. If you're 80, you'll probably not lose access to them during your remaining years. If you're 65, or worse in your 50s or younger, it's an entirely different matter. Again: Do not count on these political promises, no matter how much you believe you can force them to be provided through the political process. When the money is gone, it's gone.

http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=187887

 

[Bjerknes]

Oops. The truth is starting to get out there...

US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross

"We've always wondered who will buy Treasurys" after the Federal Reserve purchases the last of its $600 billion to end the second leg of its quantitative easing program later this month, Gross said. "It's certainly not Pimco and it's probably not the bond funds of the world."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43378973

So, who will? Well, that only leaves one option. The FED. Ponzi finance.

 

[Bezzy]

Oops. The truth is starting to get out there...

US Is in Even Worse Shape Financially Than Greece: Gross

"We've always wondered who will buy Treasurys" after the Federal Reserve purchases the last of its $600 billion to end the second leg of its quantitative easing program later this month, Gross said. "It's certainly not Pimco and it's probably not the bond funds of the world."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43378973

So, who will? Well, that only leaves one option. The FED. Ponzi finance.

is that even a possibility

 

[Bjerknes]

Well yes, it's already happening. The whole "Quantitative easing" nonsense by the Federal Reserve consists of directly purchasing US Treasuries. So basically, we are already having failed bond auctions and cannot finance our deficit. The only thing that holds us together which Greece cannot do is print our own money, but that won't save us in the long run -- it will make the problem worse.

 

[Dostoevsky]

is that even a possibility

Greece is a little baby compared to the US.

--

Pretty huge riots in Greece today.

As for their financial situation, their deficit is 150% of their GDP, which is a huge mess. If IMF doesn't grant them a new credit this or next month, they will not have any money whatsoever to pay off their wages and everything. If that happens, then wow, watch out for financial collapse.

 

[Bjerknes]

Empire State Manufacturing Index was horrid as well. This administration must be shitting their pants. We're heading into an official recession again, or part two of our depression.

June Empire State index plunges to negative figure

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Manufacturing activity deteriorated sharply in the New York region in June, raising concern that the slowdown seen in the factory sector that started in May could have marked the start of a contraction rather than a temporary soft patch.

The Empire State index fell below zero to -7.8 in June from 11.9 in May, according to the Empire State manufacturing survey released Wednesday by the New York Federal Reserve.

This is the first time the index has been below zero since last November.

 

[Bjerknes]

This is what I'm worried about here -- the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index. The SPX has the mother of all head and shoulders possibly in play, and if that technical pattern confirms, we are looking at a target somewhere around 400 on SPX. Needless to say, that would be pretty terrible, and I don't like how we are rolling over this month.

 

[Raz]

Greece is a little baby compared to the US.

--

Pretty huge riots in Greece today.

As for their financial situation, their deficit is 150% of their GDP, which is a huge mess. If IMF doesn't grant them a new credit this or next month, they will not have any money whatsoever to pay off their wages and everything. If that happens, then wow, watch out for financial collapse.

That won't happen though.

And as long as every major country will have huge amounts of dollars in their pockets nothing drastic will happen.

 

[Bezzy]

guys a question
can someone explain me this in very easy words?
shift along the demand curve and supply line
shift the demand curve and supply line

i totally it and don't know when to pick which?

 

[Bjerknes]

guys a question
can someone explain me this in very easy words?
shift along the demand curve and supply line
shift the demand curve and supply line

i totally it and don't know when to pick which?

Check out section F Shifts and Movements.

http://www.investopedia.com/university/economics/economics3.asp

Basically, a movement is just a shift along the curve.

 

[Bjerknes]

That won't happen though.

And as long as every major country will have huge amounts of dollars in their pockets nothing drastic will happen.

Nothing drastic? This sort price movement isn't "drastic"?

The whole Eurozone, including their major banks, are in trouble. No amount of debased dollars Helicopter Ben can print will save it now.

Slogan in Athens:

"Democracy was born here and here will be buried"