What is that person on the right doing?
Managing
Portugal were absolute ass in 2016 too. Finished 3rd, got through a lucky PK shootout against Poland and were fortunate to have some lucky draws go their way.
Not saying Italy will win the whole thing but I don't think group stage performance matters all that much in a knockout situation. It's all about turning up on the day and Italy are more experienced in these situations.
It's not like they're facing some juggernaut like Spain or France.
I'm with you. I didn't actually fret much about that 2016 Portugal squad because it had a conservative coach who could butt-clench so tight, nothing could get in. That means you draw a bit and need luck, but you don't really lose. And that strategy worked. Not a likely successful one, but probably a more likely strategy to win a final for Portugal than Martinez's "everyone just get open" strategy for a more talented 2024 Portugal.
People get hung up on short-term momentum in these elimination competitions when the core is really just about survival.
None of the sides left in this tournament are good enough to drag opponents and nick them by a goal or more. Everything is going to come down to chances and odds and just survival.