[EU] Champions League 2008/2009 (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter Azzurri7
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No CL this week, but it doesn't mean we can't do some calculations here 
As you know, we'll most probably win our group. We need only 2 more pts against Zenit and BATE to win the group theoretically, but we can also win the group even if we lose both matches.
Since we'll be first, in the next round we will get one of the second placed teams.
Lets see the options :
- We can't get the team from our group, so Real (or less probably, Zenit or Bate) won't be our 2nd round opponent
- We can't get an Italian team, so Roma, who'll most probably win the 2nd place in their group, also isn't a possible opponent.
This leaves 6 more options.
From Inter's group, where the perdenti will almost certainly top the group, we can get one of Anorthosis, Panathinaicos or Werder. Atm, Ano have 5pts, Pao have 4 and Werder have 3. In the next round we have Inter-Panathinaicos, Anorthosis-Werder. Obviously, with a win Anorthosis will be 2nd because Inter will probably beat Panathinaicos and secure the 1st place. Anorthosis are a force at home in CL (they've beaten Rapid 3:0 and Olympiacos 3:0 in the qualifiers, and in the group they played 3:1 with Panathinaicos and 3:3 with Inter).
So, hopefully Anorthosis will be our potential opponent. Werder is the one we won't like to get, but their chances to come 2nd are limited. They must beat Ano away and Inter at home.
From Manchester's group it's going to be either ManUtd or Villareal. We do great against the Spanish teams and awful against the English, so no need to tell you who the preffered possible opponent is here.
I'd say the same about Liverpool's group. No-one here wants Atletico but they're still easier to beat than Liverpool, imo.
From Barcelona's group it's going to be either Barcelona or Sporting, but Sporting is more likely.
From Arsenal's group, Porto will most probably be 2nd.
Fiorentina's group is the last one. Beh, i don't want Fiorentina to proceed, but in this case i'd like them to be 2nd. If they are 2nd we won't play them because they are Italian and we won't risk to play one of Bayern or Lyon. But Fiorentina must beat Lyon in Firenze and Steaua in Bucharest and they must hope that Bayern will take at least a point away from Lyon.
Tough to expect that but we can hope.
In an ideal, and still possible scenario, our opponent in the next round will be one of Sporting, Anorthosis, Porto, Atletico or Villareal.
Realistically, our opponent will be these same teams, but Lyon also included.
In the worst case we'll get one of these teams : Werder, Porto, Barcelona, Liverpool, Manchester, Bayern/Lyon.
As you know, we'll most probably win our group. We need only 2 more pts against Zenit and BATE to win the group theoretically, but we can also win the group even if we lose both matches.
Since we'll be first, in the next round we will get one of the second placed teams.
Lets see the options :
- We can't get the team from our group, so Real (or less probably, Zenit or Bate) won't be our 2nd round opponent
- We can't get an Italian team, so Roma, who'll most probably win the 2nd place in their group, also isn't a possible opponent.
This leaves 6 more options.
From Inter's group, where the perdenti will almost certainly top the group, we can get one of Anorthosis, Panathinaicos or Werder. Atm, Ano have 5pts, Pao have 4 and Werder have 3. In the next round we have Inter-Panathinaicos, Anorthosis-Werder. Obviously, with a win Anorthosis will be 2nd because Inter will probably beat Panathinaicos and secure the 1st place. Anorthosis are a force at home in CL (they've beaten Rapid 3:0 and Olympiacos 3:0 in the qualifiers, and in the group they played 3:1 with Panathinaicos and 3:3 with Inter).
So, hopefully Anorthosis will be our potential opponent. Werder is the one we won't like to get, but their chances to come 2nd are limited. They must beat Ano away and Inter at home.
From Manchester's group it's going to be either ManUtd or Villareal. We do great against the Spanish teams and awful against the English, so no need to tell you who the preffered possible opponent is here.
I'd say the same about Liverpool's group. No-one here wants Atletico but they're still easier to beat than Liverpool, imo.
From Barcelona's group it's going to be either Barcelona or Sporting, but Sporting is more likely.
From Arsenal's group, Porto will most probably be 2nd.
Fiorentina's group is the last one. Beh, i don't want Fiorentina to proceed, but in this case i'd like them to be 2nd. If they are 2nd we won't play them because they are Italian and we won't risk to play one of Bayern or Lyon. But Fiorentina must beat Lyon in Firenze and Steaua in Bucharest and they must hope that Bayern will take at least a point away from Lyon.
Tough to expect that but we can hope.
In an ideal, and still possible scenario, our opponent in the next round will be one of Sporting, Anorthosis, Porto, Atletico or Villareal.
Realistically, our opponent will be these same teams, but Lyon also included.
In the worst case we'll get one of these teams : Werder, Porto, Barcelona, Liverpool, Manchester, Bayern/Lyon.
This may sound ridiculous but I like to avoid the first set of teams a lot more than the second set. It seems this Juve peform better against the big teams than against the small, perhaps it is our playing style or simply a matter of motivation but I don't see Juve as the team that enjoys playing against weaker teams.
Have you noticed that in the past year or so our best games performance wise have come against teams that are superior to us on paper eg: Real, Inter, Milan, Roma(last year) etc.. We seem to shift into a different gear when we play against big teams. The players seem more focused, more determined, more concentrated, and far more relaxed than when playing against weaker teams.
A possible reason may be because we are expected to create chances against our weaker opponents while they gladly sit back and defend. We do badly in these types of situations where we have to break down a defensive minded team. Our players are not suited to play such games. However, when we play offencive minded teams like Genoa for example, we cope rather well. When you look at teams like Barcelona that has the likes of Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, obviously, they would look forward to facing defensive minded opponents where they can comfortably dominate possession and create. We, on the other hand, are not particularly good at keeping possession(although we have massively improved comapared to last year and before) and creating chances.
In the end, I see us having more difficulties against teams like Anarthosis than we will against teams like Barcelona, Lyon etc..
Capello is the coach who has the greatest ever win in a CL final (Milan-Barcelona 4:0) but he's also responsible for the defeats the great teams of Milan (in mid 90's) and Juve (mid 2000's) suffered in CL.
Dejan Savicevic was Milan's leader in the mid 90's. He was literally what Kaka was to Milan in 2007 (and still is). Savicevic was Berlusconi's favorite.
Capello's tactics in Milan were simple, score a goal and then defend with 10 men. The victim of these tactics was Savicevic. He'd have brought Milan the lead and then Capello was replacing him or playing him deep in midfield, in order to keep the 1:0 lead. Those sort of tactics do not allow for much creativity and you can see why was Savicevic upset with those restrained roles.
If it was up to Capello, he'd have never played Savicevic, but he had to because of Berlusconi.
Then that famous episode from 1995 happened. Capello didn't let Savicevic play the CL final in 1995. Milan were left with absolutely no creativity and they lost the final of course. (Savicevic was ready to play and he was Milan's greatest hope, but according to Capello he was injured and he couldn't play).
The younger members can understand this with this example: Imagine Ancelotti not fielding Kaka in the CL 2007 final. Well, that's what Capello did back then with Savicevic. Savicevic was the one who almost single-handedly took Milan to the final, just like Kaka in 2007, and yet Capello did the most foolish thing.
Capello was doing something similar with Del Piero. Even though DP was our best and most in-form player, Capello was too stubborn to admit that playing Zlatan ahead of Del Piero was a mistake.
I guess Capello wanted to show who the real boss is.
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