Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (19 Viewers)

JuveJay

Senior Signor
Moderator
Mar 6, 2007
72,310
So the government has put my local region (Coventry & Warwickshire) into the harshest tier 3 when the national lockdown ends on December 2nd. This despite the local daily numbers dropping quite rapidly and the city itself being comfortably within tier 2 guidelines. This is because they lump this area in with Solihull, Birmingham, Black Country and the greater West Midlands Local Authority, who have higher numbers. Makes no sense at all. Those areas are 25 miles away and separated by green belt land. Warks was tier 1 before the lockdown but is now tier 3....how is that even possible?

One of the biggest gripes about this is that pubs in tier 3 areas are not open (for groups of up to 6 people) over the festive period. There's no way that pubs would be as busy as they typically would because the majority of people are still very wary or fearful of the virus, but there would likely have still been many going for the traditional Christmas drink and bit of food in those small groups. You also can't mix households outside of the 5 days where restrictions are lifted (23-27th December). So what are people going to do on NYE? It's obvious what will happen.

I think doing things like this will have a worse affect than the government realise. If you are in a high risk area then that is absolutely correct, if not then people feel slighted, and all that will happen is that people will meet up in greater numbers in households, all over Christmas and not just the 5 days where restrictions are lifted, and come January those areas will have big spikes again and more problems.
More on what I was saying yesterday:

0_England-Tiers-MAP.jpg


So essentially there is a clear north-south divide with few exceptions - Liverpool escapes tier 3 because it has had its own very strict measures recently. Bristol area in tier 3, and one very bad area of Kent (Swale) and Medway has put the entire county in tier 3. Most of it is rural so people are also very annoyed there. Those tier 2 areas in the north (Cumbria and North Yorkshire) have low population density, they are mostly national parks, moorland and green belt. Only Cornwall and the Isle of Wight make tier 1.

To the working man it looks like Boris has sorted out the south and his cockney wanker mates so they can all have a better Christmas than us "northern monkeys" (even the Midlands is north for them).

Now you have this map, which shows infection swing during the ongoing national lockdown:

map.png


Oh look, the southeast with the only cases where it isn't going down. East Sussex (Brighton etc) with rising cases, but that is an affluent area where many Londoners live, so they can stay tier 2. And Redbridge is in London, but obviously there was no chance of Greater London being tier 3 because of one little area :baus:

MPs already talking about striking over these measures. It gets reviewed every two weeks, so don't be surprised if suddenly the map turns orange just before Christmas, because the Tories are taking a hammering over this.

The only thing I can suspect they were thinking is that they would do tougher measures for the first two weeks of December to try to negate some of the infection damage that will inevitably be done over Christmas. But what they should have done is extended the national lockdown until mid-December and then put everyone in tiers 2 or 1 where suitable, because this looks like a clear divide and bias.
 

JuveJay

Senior Signor
Moderator
Mar 6, 2007
72,310
So the national lockdown is over soon only to have 99% of the country in tier 2/3 restrictions?
Yes :D Although tier 2 restrictions are fairly relaxed, socially. Tier 3 isn't exactly the end of the world but for the most social time of the year it is very restrictive.

What I find funniest is that in tier 3 they have still kept health spa and gyms open. I understand the mental and physical health requirements for people but I can tell you that my gym is one of the places most likely to be spreading the virus.
 

Gian

COME HOME MOGGI
Apr 12, 2009
17,477
Gyms and amateur sports/group excises sure are an infection driver which often gets overlooked since most infections are related to households mingling according to the data. I think that's due to contact tracing rather than science. It just seems the source is much easier to trace when 6 people meet up in the same house rather than a gym filled with multiple people throughout the day who are exhaling more and coughing. Over here we had a massive drop in cases 2 weeks after we banned amateur group sports (but for some reason individual sports are possible).

If the data isn't collected right, the infection drivers aren't to be found and the restrictions can't be good also imo.
 
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swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
83,442
All valid points, I for one would not just throw caution to the wind if I got the vaccine. As you say the vaccine won't be widely distributed within a few months so life won't just go back to normal with the snap of your fingers. I am considered overweight so if there is less than 95% efficacy because of that then that is a bit sobering.
Yeah, it will help to take extra precautions. Once vaccinated, a lot of people aren't going to think.

There's no study on what something like being overweight will do to COVID vaccines because the vaccines and data is so new. But if it's anything like other vaccines, there's a good chance its efficacy will be reduced with co-morbidities.

This attack still going on?
You mean you haven't looked up and seen the virus flying tiny airplanes??

Canada post-Thanksgiving is probably the best example we can get after the holiday season in Europe where in most countries the infection rate remains quite high. Pretty sure we'll see a 3rd wave somewhere in January. People wanting to celebrate this year's holiday as if any other are beyond stupid. This year won't be normal, just like 1944 Christmas during WW 2 wasn't normal.
Holiday season in Europe will be more January, unlike what the US will experience in two weeks.

Why the fuck would you post that?
The lulz
 

Gian

COME HOME MOGGI
Apr 12, 2009
17,477
So it seems like the Oxford / Astrazenica vaccin isn't as effective as claimed. After re-analyzing the data it seems like it's 62% effective which sure makes it a different story. Right now they're going to research the data once again which means approval is delayed probably. I personally thought these >90% results were too good to be true to begin with. I won't be surprised if the Moderna or Sputnik V vaccines aren't really >90% effective either.
 

Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
88,443
Didn't they say they would be happy if they are 50+ effective?

They made made vaccine of this type before. Claiming it's 90% without testing it for months is absurd. Nobody knows the side-effects. They are playing with a dangerous toy. Knowing that people are brain dead I assume 99% would take a vaccine without questioning anything.
 

Gian

COME HOME MOGGI
Apr 12, 2009
17,477
The American FDA does I think, no idea about the EU standards. But 50 or even 60% efficacy is a big fugazzi to me as it means the disease won't be close to eradicated anytime soon and measures can't be eased that much as at the very least 40% of the people are still susceptible to Covid which is still billions of people throughout the world.

I'm also pretty sure if you mass vaccinate a population there is a likeliness of it being less effective than the test group as higher risk profiles and people with immune disorders aren't that well represented in clinical trials.
 

Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
88,443
I don't think we'll ever see it disappear completely. It will just turn into another seasonal flu and I'd say people should learn to cope with it for a long, long time. In other words, I think we're pretty fucked up because I don't think we'll see "clear" years like we used to.

Oh and we're on the edge of hitting 8000 positive cases per day. I think we're one of the worst countries in Europe surely because when you consider population it's worse than what happened in Italy and Spain.

EDIT: I'm not talking about deaths but the system overload.
 

lgorTudor

Senior Member
Jan 15, 2015
32,949
So it seems like the Oxford / Astrazenica vaccin isn't as effective as claimed. After re-analyzing the data it seems like it's 62% effective which sure makes it a different story. Right now they're going to research the data once again which means approval is delayed probably. I personally thought these >90% results were too good to be true to begin with. I won't be surprised if the Moderna or Sputnik V vaccines aren't really >90% effective either.
Frankenstein cocktail either way

Our family physician strongly advised against getting vaccinated in first couple of iterations and she is anything but an anti vaxxer nutjob, forces me to get the seasonal flu shot every year
 

Gian

COME HOME MOGGI
Apr 12, 2009
17,477
I'm no anti vaxxar by any means but choosing between a vaccine that is 50-60% effective where the long term side effects are unknown of or having the possibility between catching a viral disease which I have a 99,8% chance of surviving through (probably even higher as I'm well below my 30's and underweight) is a tough decision to make.
 

Elvin

Senior Member
Nov 25, 2005
36,830
I don't think we'll ever see it disappear completely. It will just turn into another seasonal flu and I'd say people should learn to cope with it for a long, long time. In other words, I think we're pretty fucked up because I don't think we'll see "clear" years like we used to.

Oh and we're on the edge of hitting 8000 positive cases per day. I think we're one of the worst countries in Europe surely because when you consider population it's worse than what happened in Italy and Spain.

EDIT: I'm not talking about deaths but the system overload.
How did the Spanish flu pandemic end?
 

Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
88,443
How did the Spanish flu pandemic end?
Oh so you named one. There were some others as well. But truth is viruses stay around. Probably 90% of them.

Seeing this one spread so easily do you really think we'll have all countries down their numbers to 0? It all began with 1 person and here we are. Countries can't fight it and people rely on vaccines that were done by gene editing for the first time and weren't properly tested. That's a great, great plan :tup:
 

Elvin

Senior Member
Nov 25, 2005
36,830
Oh so you named one. There were some others as well. But truth is viruses stay around. Probably 90% of them.

Seeing this one spread so easily do you really think we'll have all countries down their numbers to 0? It all began with 1 person and here we are. Countries can't fight it and people rely on vaccines that were done by gene editing for the first time and weren't properly tested. That's a great, great plan :tup:
Of course viruses stay, but pandemics end eventually.
 

Dostoevsky

Tzu
Administrator
May 27, 2007
88,443
Of course viruses stay, but pandemics end eventually.
Maybe. We see new things happen quite often.

Suppressing corona down to 0 seems quite unlikely imo. I remember how hard it was for us to down it from 350 cases per day, let alone now whwn we're hitting 8k and children can't be placed in such full hospitals.
 

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