Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (41 Viewers)

Enron

Tickle Me
Moderator
Oct 11, 2005
75,252

Post Ironic

Senior Member
Feb 9, 2013
41,845
Here is some commentary that will probably garner some dislikes but it's worth it. Anyone care to debate the math in this article or the Standford study?

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker
Yeah. Automatically discredited himself as a dumbass when he said evidence points to us already being at or near herd immunity.

Even the antibodies study @Cerval referenced above that suggested tens of times more people have had it than tested positive stated that even with the adjusted rate from the study, only 3% of the population would have had it. Herd immunity requires 70-80%.

- - - Updated - - -

Add to that, this isn’t just about old people and people with underlying conditions dying. Young people, even though outcomes are good and they almost always survive, are hospitalized and in the ICU/on ventilators at a significant enough rate that without mitigation, allowing this to infect everyone in a short period of time, we’d collapse our health care systems like Italy. And if that happens, then young people who would survive with proper care start to die in more significant numbers.

Japan struggling right now with hospital overload.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52336388
 
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campionesidd

Senior Member
Mar 16, 2013
15,274
Here is some commentary that will probably garner some dislikes but it's worth it. Anyone care to debate the math in this article or the Standford study?

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker
This is too easy.
Are there any sources for those numbers? Which Stanford study is he talking about?
Assuming it’s about the one that says the number of infected people is 50-80 times higher than the confirmed number..... that still gives an infection rate of 2-3% of the entire US population. Like Post Ironic said, herd immunity requires at least 60-70% of your population to be immune.
Even if the fatality rate of Covid is low, it’s so highly infectious that the sheer number of people admitted in intensive care and who end up dying are way above what the US healthcare system can handle. Even with lockdown imposed in most of the country, Covid-19 was the leading cause of death in the country this week. And these are just confirmed deaths, there are reports that the actual number of deaths could be 30-50% higher.
I get these folks want the economy to reopen and for life to return to normal. So do I. Just wishing for something doesn’t make it a reality. Waving a wand at this problem is not gonna make it go away, whether we like it or not.
 

s4tch

Senior Member
Mar 23, 2015
28,218

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
83,441
Yeah. Automatically discredited himself as a dumbass when he said evidence points to us already being at or near herd immunity.
Yeah, that was definitely tin foil hat territory for me.

IMO, the most reasoned piece I've seen on this lately is:
http://jdmichel.blog.tdg.ch/archive/2020/03/24/covid-19-the-game-is-over-305275.html
making the rounds in France and Switzerland lately.

And yes, you don't even have to click that Google Translate button because it's been translated from French. :p Damn thing is almost a month old though...
 

Enron

Tickle Me
Moderator
Oct 11, 2005
75,252
This is too easy.
Are there any sources for those numbers? Which Stanford study is he talking about?
Assuming it’s about the one that says the number of infected people is 50-80 times higher than the confirmed number..... that still gives an infection rate of 2-3% of the entire US population. Like Post Ironic said, herd immunity requires at least 60-70% of your population to be immune.
Even if the fatality rate of Covid is low, it’s so highly infectious that the sheer number of people admitted in intensive care and who end up dying are way above what the US healthcare system can handle. Even with lockdown imposed in most of the country, Covid-19 was the leading cause of death in the country this week. And these are just confirmed deaths, there are reports that the actual number of deaths could be 30-50% higher.
I get these folks want the economy to reopen and for life to return to normal. So do I. Just wishing for something doesn’t make it a reality. Waving a wand at this problem is not gonna make it go away, whether we like it or not.
i think he's referring to the Stanford antibody survey. an interview of the guy doing it was posted earlier in this thread by Gordo, i believe. but yeah sample size would have only been a few hundred.
 

GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
69,339
Yeah, that was definitely tin foil hat territory for me.

IMO, the most reasoned piece I've seen on this lately is:
http://jdmichel.blog.tdg.ch/archive/2020/03/24/covid-19-the-game-is-over-305275.html
making the rounds in France and Switzerland lately.

And yes, you don't even have to click that Google Translate button because it's been translated from French. :p Damn thing is almost a month old though...
Anthropologist lol

"we must all follow the instructions of the authorities without discussion." LOL
 

GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
69,339
Anthropologists that have done that during colonialism have done some shady things
Not only is it a nonsensical bs discipline, along with sociology, but its academia is now completely in the clutches of marxist dogma. Pure historicist kaka, i would compare it to eating a nice meal while sick with diarrhea, you don't get any benefit just painful grimacing sick to your gut and gooey vile shit.
 

Cerval

Senior Member
Feb 20, 2016
26,829
Not only is it a nonsensical bs discipline, along with sociology, but its academia is now completely in the clutches of marxist dogma. Pure historicist kaka, i would compare it to eating a nice meal while sick with diarrhea, you don't get any benefit just painful grimacing sick to your gut and gooey vile shit.
Can't say I disagree. I think it might have been useful a long time ago but it is obsolete now for a while
 

duranfj

Senior Member
Jul 30, 2015
8,765
I'm mathematicians and I've done a lot of statistics.... and I just can tell you something, this virus is so good in what he does that anyone that is out there saying "I get it, I know what is happening" is nothing but BS... so far you can say nothing more that "in our study we find out this", it's impossible to extrapolate

Asymptomatic, incubation period, low death rate, highly contagious, mutations, living time on surfaces.... it's too good so it would take a huge sample to really understand it, millions and millions of cases, so for now on everyone need to do their best to study their own cases and try then to put all that pieces together very carefully and the most difficult part, be really unbiased (considering how western countries, China and WHO are handling this right now, I'm not sure that would be possible in a while)
 
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GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
69,339

Quetzalcoatl

It ain't hard to tell
Aug 22, 2007
65,506
@Quetzalcoatl

"One big unknown is what will happen with the foundation’s money once it meets its target of eradicating polio, which started in the late 1980s and now appears to be nearing its goal. Chan has warned that if the polio money dries up in 2019, the global health body will be on the lookout for even more money."

https://www.politico.eu/article/bill-gates-who-most-powerful-doctor/
Interesting. You think this is to, as you say, position himself to hedge against Amazon?
 

GordoDeCentral

Diez
Moderator
Apr 14, 2005
69,339
Interesting. You think this is to, as you say, position himself to hedge against Amazon?
The article clearly states he is shaping their policy, now ask yourself this under what capacity or with what expertise is gates deciding how WHO is to operate? Now on the other hand, ask yourself this, what is the one thing gates is good at? Here's a hint it's not Technology.
 

Quetzalcoatl

It ain't hard to tell
Aug 22, 2007
65,506
The article clearly states he is shaping their policy, now ask yourself this under what capacity or with what expertise is gates deciding how WHO is to operate? Now on the other hand, ask yourself this, what is the one thing gates is good at? Here's a hint it's not Technology.
I'm just wondering how he would be able to use his influence over the WHO to challenge Amazon
 

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