Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (186 Viewers)

[Post Ironic]

I think it was on a good path since they had 6k and they fell on 3k yesterday. But is just fucked up. Its gonna take them another 2 months.

Jumped back to 4200 today...

Edit. Saw your previous post saying the same thing

 

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[Dostoevsky]

Italy's numbers aren't necessarily bad.

They are doing a shitload more testing than before, so the number of posiitives will go up.

But, if today is like yesterday, the percentage of positive tests will still be going down.

They had massive tests in previous week. Yesterday they were on around 50k and it was still lowering. This is a huge increase and a horrible news for them. Its like it wont fucking disappear.

 

[acmilan]

Italy's situation is really baffling. Under lockdown for close to a month but still thousands of infected every day. The transmission has barely slowed down ...

With multiple generations living under the same roof, it is to be expected that lockdown measures will be less effective in a country like Italy. The degree of containment will be lessened quite a bit. Still beats the alternative, though.
Also, there were a lot of reports that, at least at first, the lockdown measures were neither enforced nor observed all that strictly. I imagine that changed, eventually, once the death toll put things into perspective.

 

[GordoDeCentral]

@Ronn iran ended lockdown?

 

[Ronn]

They had massive tests in previous week. Yesterday they were on around 50k and it was still lowering. This is a huge increase and a horrible news for them. Its like it wont fucking disappear.

How many tests did they do today?

 

[Lapa]

I’ll be here when you do!

 

[lgorTudor]

Italy's numbers aren't necessarily bad.

They are doing a shitload more testing than before, so the number of posiitives will go up.

But, if today is like yesterday, the percentage of positive tests will still be going down.

why good when number go up @Snobist no understand

 

[Ronn]

@Ronn iran ended lockdown?

Iran was never really in lockdown. They had some measures like banning intercity travel for a short time. It’s understandable to some extent, since economy was tanking even before the pandemic.

 

[pavluska]

I think it was on a good path since they had 6k and they fell on 3k yesterday. But is just fucked up. Its gonna take them another 2 months.

It's just an individual number, trend is more important. And they're doing more and more testing.

Acc to this site (by univ of Washington), 2-3 more weeks:

http://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

 

[Dostoevsky]

How many tests did they do today?

Actually... just saw this.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104319/coronavirus-tests-conducted-by-region-in-italy/

 

[Dostoevsky]

It's just an individual number, trend is more important. And they're doing more and more testing.

Acc to this site (by univ of Washington), 2-3 more weeks:

http://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

Doesnt seem reliable. If it jumps back to 5k yesterday those chars would look totally different. I doubt anyone expected todays jump to be this high

 

[acmilan]

Speaking of Iran, has anybody heard from Hoori (I think her nick is King Ale or something along those lines)?

 

[Ronn]

It's just an individual number, trend is more important. And they're doing more and more testing.

Acc to this site (by univ of Washington), 2-3 more weeks:

http://covid19.healthdata.org/italy

The model used for projections is basically derived from statistical data of other countries. There’s no science behind how it actually spreads. So their projections have been total shit.

 

[Dostoevsky]

Speaking of Iran, has anybody heard from Hoori (I think her nick is King Ale or something along those lines)?

I think shes in the US.

 

[acmilan]

I think shes in the US.

Last time I heard from her she was in Philly but that was a while a go. Not sure if she's still here or has gone back since then.

 

[Dostoevsky]

1k died in the UK. Seems to be jumping.

Did the US hit 500k? Just heard something on TV. Last number I saw was 435k, no way it jumped 70k...

 

[pavluska]

The model used for projections is basically derived from statistical data of other countries. There’s no science behind how it actually spreads. So their projections have been total shit.

Physical distancing is proven to work. That data from around the world plus how R0 and exponential function work (.3 exponentially decreases like 3 exponentially increases) should constitute a model with some merit but isn't supposed to be perfect.

This def won't last two months in Italy. Not current wave/peak.

- - - Updated - - -

Speaking of Iran, has anybody heard from Hoori (I think her nick is King Ale or something along those lines)?

@Signora Omicidi also said he and his his fam were in Iran

 

[acmilan]

 

[Dostoevsky]

Physical distancing is proven to work. That data from around the world plus how R0 and exponential function work (.3 exponentially decreases like 3 exponentially increases) should constitute a model with some merit but isn't supposed to be perfect.

This def won't last two months in Italy. Not current wave/peak.

- - - Updated - - -


@Signora Omicidi also said he and his his fam were in Iran

When you say this, what is that? You mean getting from 4200 new cases to zero?

 

[pavluska]

They isolated a village near Rome with already high # of infection. They'll test everyone there and use as study. Maybe they already did so.

But in any case, focus on trends more, notice there's a lag time between numbers of cases and deaths, that more tests are being done, etc, and quit freaking out or rejoicing over individual numbers daily - the reason why news networks do what they do.