Coronavirus (COVID-19 Outbreak) (65 Viewers)

AFL_ITALIA

MAGISTERIAL
Jun 17, 2011
31,823
Another potential problem:

Hong Kong Finds Coronavirus in Pet Dog Samples, Unclear if Infected

The Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said it will conduct further tests to confirm if the dog had been infected with the virus or if the samples were only the result of environmental contamination.
"At present, the AFCD does not have evidence that pet animals can be infected ... or can be a source of infection to people," it said in a statement.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...avirus-in-pet-dog-samples-unclear-if-infected

Could it possibly mutate that quickly?
 

Al Birdie

Junior Member
May 19, 2016
460
I just wish the same attention was given to hunger which kills 20k daily rather than 250 deaths that corona spread.

But yeah, if anything, this grew more serious and bigger than what I expected. Still, as some like numbers here's what I saw today:

- China town where it all began populates 11 million people. Infected are 77k which is like 0.7% after 3 months (as first signs were shown in december 2019).
- China population is 1.3b which means 99.9945% don't have corona over there.
- Those that have cured are already over 10k so the infected aren't 77k but less

Deathrate by the age:

80+ years: 14.8%
70-79: 8%
60-69: 3.6
50-59: 1.3
40-49: 0.4
30-39: 0.2
20-29: 0.2
10-19: 0.2

Which means if you're 80+ and to die it's 0.7% x 14.8% = 0.103%. If you're 45yo it's 0.0028%. If you're under 40 it's 0.0014.

So overall it means if you're over 80 you have 99.897% chance you won't be affected & die while if you're under 40 it's 99.9986%.
There are several problems with all of these stats. But the main one is that you (or rather the original source) are assuming that this is the high point of the outbreak...
And even if the numbers from China are correct, which probably isn't, we have 80k people sick with less than 2 months. If i'm not mistaking, the 1st confirmed case was on December 31st .
 

Wittl

Senior Member
Contributor
Feb 21, 2017
11,311
Swiss government prohibits events with more than 1000p for the next 3 weeks. Everything gets cancelled now. Lol.
 

kao_ray

Senior Member
Feb 28, 2014
6,568
And even if the numbers from China are correct,
There's no way they are. Even if they wanted to give the full picture - it's impossible. We'll be able to calculate better infected/hospitalized/critical patients/deaths after 4-5 months. For now those numbers only show how vast is the spread.
 

Al Birdie

Junior Member
May 19, 2016
460
There's no way they are. Even if they wanted to give the full picture - it's impossible. We'll be able to calculate better infected/hospitalized/critical patients/deaths after 4-5 months. For now those numbers only show how vast is the spread.
Yes, hence the disclaimer :)
But for the sake of an argument we can take numbers that are available. Still nothing to cheer about.
 

kao_ray

Senior Member
Feb 28, 2014
6,568
The policy of the USA is interesting. They have decided to test only people who have been in China recently. So basically they will deal with the outbreaks and won't try to slow it from the beginning.
 
OP
Bjerknes

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
116,239
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #319
    The policy of the USA is interesting. They have decided to test only people who have been in China recently. So basically they will deal with the outbreaks and won't try to slow it from the beginning.
    Just anecdotal reports, but people who have been to the hospital around here recently report that they can't handle the volume of patients with whatever is going around right now. Some older person somebody knows went to the hospital with flu/pneumonia symptoms and was promptly released; then the next day, he died. Then somebody else I used to work with has viral pneumonia and looks like hell. Makes me wonder if the virus is already here and it's just being considered a seasonal flu. Hopefully I had it in January.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Dow Futures -1.5%
    Oil Futures -3.42% down to $45/barrel handle
    Bitcoin -2%
    Gold -1%

    Going to be another shit day.

    Airline stocks are getting pummeled, but the trans-atlantic flights from US to Europe keep going up. Demand is going down, oil prices going down, yet those ticket prices are increasing. Sometimes I really fucking hate the airlines.

    https://www.cnbc.com/
     
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    OP
    Bjerknes

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    116,239
  • Thread Starter
  • Thread Starter #320
    US 10-year note yield falls to record low - wow.

    Fucked.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Jim Cramer (mainstream media market pundit) having a breakdown on CNBC. Basically said his wife bought a ton of non-perishable food for a shelter-in-place scenario, then went on to say that the WHO is in the pocket of China and China is giving their citizens vaccines that haven't been tested similar to the Tuskegee Airmen getting their syphilis injections from the US government back in the day. Said this is a biological nightmare and even if the Fed prints $1000 for every citizen it won't help anything because the money won't cure you from Coronavirus. :shocked:

    Not sure if I've heard something like that from MSM before.
     
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