Atletico is not qualified yet. They'll field the first team and will go with all their strength to beat Olympiakos.
We obviosuly need to beat Malmo away.
Without the penalty, we'll need to beat Atletico in the last round. And if they are already qualified, they could send a team mixed with reserves.
With the penalty, we'd have the possibility to draw the last game and qualify. It's a huge difference.
Gotta beat Malmo away first. It's far and away from easy or certain.