I very much doubt that Italy can win the Euro but I think that they make a good run and perhaps progress even to the semi finals.
This Italian team is not great on paper but I like Prandelli's collective approach.
One very important player will be Mario Balotelli.
Some what understand where you are coming from about your doubts, however we still have a pretty decent chance of winning it, as it stands.. Italy are in the Top 5 contenteders for winning the tournament, but surely the Top 3: Germany, Spain and Netherlands stand out the most. Though, this Euro tournament for us will be more of a experiemental stage for us, for the up coming World Cup. Surely the objective is to win, but it's more about making an impression, going far and standing out to prove how far this squad has been rebuilt since the arrival of Prandelli. Just last week, Ranocchia said they want to win it, so we shall wait and see.
But what have we achieved to prove that Italy is on the right track and that there is a good chance of us winning the Euro Cup. First off what I admire is that we broke records in this qualifying campaign. First one being that this is the earliest qualification we've ever obtained historically in the Qualfiers for the Euro's and second that we also went through this tournament without conceding a goal for 715 minutes which broke the record since the 1998 Euro cup. Tobad though as the goal Serbia did score was offside and off a deflection giving no chance for Buffon. Also, not to mention that Italy have the best defensive records out of all groups, giving us the right indication that we are both strong up front and in the back even though there are still improvement needed in all areas. I would also say the friendlies we had with Spain and Germany, we managed to beat the World Champions and we went undefeated to Germany in which to this date, Germany have still not defeated us for 16 years. Now, friendlies are never to be shown as a proven factor however the Germany game does justify it as important, seeing that Germany and Italy took the game seriously as a typical Italy v. Germany derby. They went out with all their starters with the intention of winning, and we went out there to keep our undefeated streak vs. them. And so... I would consider that a proven factor as the same importance will apply in the world cup. Lastly would be our last game with Serbia, sure we didn't win, but usually, historically speaking... Italy when qualfy don't take games to seriously as they just relax when playing... We went there without any gains, while Serbia were there playing for the win with all costs, as we were away in a hostile stadium, with a nation that has lots of great players, and we walked out there undefeated. To be honest, we could of also won that game, if Rossi and Montolivo didn't miss their chances and dominated with 62% of possesion. That being said, not only didn't we lose, but we managed to keep our style of play intact which proves to us that this squad is able to play under pressure.
Speaking of style of play, the Euro's will prove to us if the 4-3-1-2 formation is the right system to go in with, it proved to be right with qualfiers, with Germany and Spain in Friendlies and now the ultimate test should prevail. Now of course, it has been working great in all games, as we usually dominated 55% + of possesion however, we've still had problems, in which was never concluding. Most of the time, we keep passing and passing the ball, but we never manage to find much space to create oppurtunities in which means we lack at getting chances, we must improve on that in our up coming fixtures. Just like in the Ireland game, we dominated possesion, but in regards of making chances it just stunk.
As for us on paper, I would say that this squad is much better than what we had both in 2008 and 2010. Not to mention we do have one of the best atleast out of the top 5 in the upcoming Euro's. Rossi just last season having 32 goals in 50 some what apperances is a great stat to compare without other strikers, like France with Benzema. Going forward you got Pazzini/Matri who are two great Prima Punta's, Matri having 20 goals last season in Serie A and Pazzini scoring about 11 goals in his arrival mid way the season with Inter. Then of course Cassano, having 8 assists mid way with Milan(being overwieght I might add) and 4 goals and then you got Giovinco, Balotelli... the list of depth goes on and on. Midfield, All CM's, no wingers as they are not needed. We got lots of Quality, Pirlo being World Class, De Rossi being one of the best CDM's in the world... Marchisio who is growing and has the potential to be greater than he is, then the likes of Montolivo and Aquilani who are qualifty players and we can go on and on. Defense is solid(fullbacks lack), but the stat of having the best defensive record should prove something on paper of course.
Well, I wouldn't say Balotelli is going to be a very important player, hopefully he will be, but it will be more Rossi and Cassano and mostly Cassano. Balotelli has not played much with us due to injuries, suspensions and lack of time with Man City, he's still young and has a whole year to prove himself with the luck of Tevez not playing anymore, it's time for Balotelli to shine and with his personality changing, it's the great way in doing it. Giovinco as well leading Serie A with 6 goals, he will have this year to prove his worth even more than last year.