I think chances he's staying are very slim now.
First because it's absolutely feasible that a EPL or oil club could unleash 55/60M. Actually, in pounds, I'd say he's worth this sum.
We'd have to spend from 25 to 35M to keep him. I think it will be a bit over our capacities.
But the salary offers he'd get, it would be tough to match. In euros, probably around 6M net/year.
At this point, the player's will should make a big difference. If he stood for staying with us, giving up a bit less than he'd receive in England, it could happen.
But as I said, IMO Allegri took the wrong approach with him. He's regressed from undisputed starter in season 1 to undisputed backup at the end of season 2, position solidified during the 2nd semester. He's obviously a backup now, like when he came from Madrid.
We basically chose Mandzukic over him. And as much as I appreciate what Mandzu did this year, and the fact he's a much more complete player than I thought, contributing very well with passing, assisting, building up and movement, I consider Morata to be a better player today. The future is obviously his.
Morata is inconsistent, for sure, and had a rough 1st semester, but so did Mandzukic.
If I'm at the charge, I'd invest everything on Morata. If he stayed with us now, I don't see the guy leaving for the next 4 or 5 years at least, and we'd have a world class young CF in our hands. His ability to show up when it matters is unbelievable. His quality to be the ideal CF on a counter team, but also a very good CF in a build up play team is off the charts.
Even if it came down to a decision between Mandzukic and Morata, something that I'm not sure it is, I'd choose Morata and let Mandzukic go.
But Marotta is in a tough position, because Allegri is in love with Mandzukic and clearly prefers him. It's hard to overrule him after these 2 magical years.
It's a shame... I'm a huge fan, from the first 5 minutes he played in the 1st season.