World Cup Lounge (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter JCK
- Start date
they didnt play good exact same lineup as the first game and they barely got 1
no i dont think they will qualify..... if the swiss beat togo good then korea and the swiss will be at the top and if they tie like a 2-2 game france is out just like italy at the euro. to be honest it is almost the exact same situation, if the swiss beat togo.
Playing odds on penalty kicks
On July 17, 1994, a glaring sun beat down on the Rose Bowl as two of the world's soccer powerhouses duked it out in the final match of the World Cup. After two hours of soccer, neither Brazil nor Italy had scored. The inevitable coda ensued: penalty kicks.
The principle of penalties is simple. The ball is put on a spot 12 yards from the goal line. The kicker has to shoot the ball directly from the spot, and the goalkeeper has to try to stop it without leaving his line before the ball is struck. Because the ball travels so fast, the goalkeeper may guess which way to dive before the kicker touches the ball.
That July day offered a nail-biting finale. Each side had five chances to score. Italy's fate was sealed only when Roberto Baggio, the team's offensive star, sailed his kick over the crossbar and into everlasting infamy.
Obviously, statistics could not have helped Baggio strike the ball on target. But they might have helped Daniele Massaro, the previous kicker, whose effort was saved by Brazil's goalkeeper, Claudio Taffarel.
Penalty kicks have attracted quite a bit of academic interest because they provide an ideal situation for checking some of the predictions of game theory. You have two players choosing their moves simultaneously with only two possible outcomes: score or no score. The 18-yard box in front of a soccer goal may as well be an economics laboratory.
Clearly, a kicker or goalkeeper who always plays to the same side will not be worth too much to his team; each type of player needs to mix things up. What interests economists is whether players mix things up in the best possible way. When players of similar ability are using their optimal strategies, the chances of scoring should be the same whether they play left, right or center. In other words, a player should not be able to improve his success rate by changing the mix.
Pierre-André Chiappori of Columbia University, Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago and Timothy Groseclose of UCLA analyzed all the penalty kicks taken in the top French league from 1997 through 1999 and in the top Italian league from 1997 through 2000. Kickers scored 77 percent of the time when they went to their natural side (right foot kicking to left side, for example), 70 percent of the time on the opposite side and 81 percent of the time in the middle - pretty similar success rates, or at least within a statistical margin of error.
Goalkeepers are even closer in their success rates. When they guessed center or the opposite side, kickers failed to score 27 percent of the time. When they guessed the kicker's natural side, there was no goal 24 percent of the time.
The players were not all the same, though, so the researchers looked at the scoring records of individual penalty takers. Again, they could not reject the hypothesis that the chances of scoring were the same no matter which way the penalty takers - and the goalies they faced - chose to play.
Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, a professor of economics at Brown University, extended the research with data on more than 1,400 penalty kicks in European leagues from 1995 through 2000. The players - kickers and goalkeepers alike - seemed to be doing the best they could. No matter how often they shot left, right or center, their chances of scoring were always statistically indistinguishable. The same went for the goalkeepers' choices.
But Palacios-Huerta went further, by analyzing the records of individual players who struck or faced at least 30 penalties each.
He wanted to find out whether the kickers and goalkeepers followed any predictable sequences. And indeed, at the moment of each individual kick, the decision looked random, as in an optimal strategy.
So, on average, the players are close to the best possible at what they do - a comforting thought for people who buy expensive soccer tickets. But another part of Palacios-Huerta's paper may be of more interest to World Cup coaches in Germany. A few of the kickers and goalkeepers he tracked are actually playing with their national sides right now.
If Raymond Domenech, the coach of the French squad, is looking for a penalty taker, he might want to pass on his captain, Zinédine Zidane. He ranked 21st out of the 22 kickers who took at least 30 penalties, with a 75 percent success rate.
By contrast, Marcello Lippi, who is coaching Italy, should probably trust Alessandro Del Piero to improve on his countrymen's performance from 1994; Del Piero, who plays for Juventus, ranked second, scoring 91 percent of the time. Lippi may also want to swap his starting goalkeeper, Gianluigi Buffon, before a game goes to penalties. Kickers scored on him 83 percent of the time, leaving him 16th out of the 20 keepers who faced 30 or more penalties.
If the Italian team finds itself in another shootout on a sunny July day, a few statistics may go a long way.
By Daniel Altman
The New York Times
On July 17, 1994, a glaring sun beat down on the Rose Bowl as two of the world's soccer powerhouses duked it out in the final match of the World Cup. After two hours of soccer, neither Brazil nor Italy had scored. The inevitable coda ensued: penalty kicks.
The principle of penalties is simple. The ball is put on a spot 12 yards from the goal line. The kicker has to shoot the ball directly from the spot, and the goalkeeper has to try to stop it without leaving his line before the ball is struck. Because the ball travels so fast, the goalkeeper may guess which way to dive before the kicker touches the ball.
That July day offered a nail-biting finale. Each side had five chances to score. Italy's fate was sealed only when Roberto Baggio, the team's offensive star, sailed his kick over the crossbar and into everlasting infamy.
Obviously, statistics could not have helped Baggio strike the ball on target. But they might have helped Daniele Massaro, the previous kicker, whose effort was saved by Brazil's goalkeeper, Claudio Taffarel.
Penalty kicks have attracted quite a bit of academic interest because they provide an ideal situation for checking some of the predictions of game theory. You have two players choosing their moves simultaneously with only two possible outcomes: score or no score. The 18-yard box in front of a soccer goal may as well be an economics laboratory.
Clearly, a kicker or goalkeeper who always plays to the same side will not be worth too much to his team; each type of player needs to mix things up. What interests economists is whether players mix things up in the best possible way. When players of similar ability are using their optimal strategies, the chances of scoring should be the same whether they play left, right or center. In other words, a player should not be able to improve his success rate by changing the mix.
Pierre-André Chiappori of Columbia University, Steven Levitt of the University of Chicago and Timothy Groseclose of UCLA analyzed all the penalty kicks taken in the top French league from 1997 through 1999 and in the top Italian league from 1997 through 2000. Kickers scored 77 percent of the time when they went to their natural side (right foot kicking to left side, for example), 70 percent of the time on the opposite side and 81 percent of the time in the middle - pretty similar success rates, or at least within a statistical margin of error.
Goalkeepers are even closer in their success rates. When they guessed center or the opposite side, kickers failed to score 27 percent of the time. When they guessed the kicker's natural side, there was no goal 24 percent of the time.
The players were not all the same, though, so the researchers looked at the scoring records of individual penalty takers. Again, they could not reject the hypothesis that the chances of scoring were the same no matter which way the penalty takers - and the goalies they faced - chose to play.
Ignacio Palacios-Huerta, a professor of economics at Brown University, extended the research with data on more than 1,400 penalty kicks in European leagues from 1995 through 2000. The players - kickers and goalkeepers alike - seemed to be doing the best they could. No matter how often they shot left, right or center, their chances of scoring were always statistically indistinguishable. The same went for the goalkeepers' choices.
But Palacios-Huerta went further, by analyzing the records of individual players who struck or faced at least 30 penalties each.
He wanted to find out whether the kickers and goalkeepers followed any predictable sequences. And indeed, at the moment of each individual kick, the decision looked random, as in an optimal strategy.
So, on average, the players are close to the best possible at what they do - a comforting thought for people who buy expensive soccer tickets. But another part of Palacios-Huerta's paper may be of more interest to World Cup coaches in Germany. A few of the kickers and goalkeepers he tracked are actually playing with their national sides right now.
If Raymond Domenech, the coach of the French squad, is looking for a penalty taker, he might want to pass on his captain, Zinédine Zidane. He ranked 21st out of the 22 kickers who took at least 30 penalties, with a 75 percent success rate.
By contrast, Marcello Lippi, who is coaching Italy, should probably trust Alessandro Del Piero to improve on his countrymen's performance from 1994; Del Piero, who plays for Juventus, ranked second, scoring 91 percent of the time. Lippi may also want to swap his starting goalkeeper, Gianluigi Buffon, before a game goes to penalties. Kickers scored on him 83 percent of the time, leaving him 16th out of the 20 keepers who faced 30 or more penalties.
If the Italian team finds itself in another shootout on a sunny July day, a few statistics may go a long way.
By Daniel Altman
The New York Times
I am the happist man tonight:
I was so sad all the time because I did not get any tickets for the World cup in the county I live in, but few minutes ago I was on the fifaworldcup site and just wanted to take a look and saw that there are few tickets for the match KSA-Spain, I tried to order tickets but I became a message that somebody had been faster.. I tried it for about 1 hour and then I came through and got the tickets, I am so happy now, there is also a small chance that I get tickets for Italy-czech...
so for that match on friday I am gonna say: viva espana
I was so sad all the time because I did not get any tickets for the World cup in the county I live in, but few minutes ago I was on the fifaworldcup site and just wanted to take a look and saw that there are few tickets for the match KSA-Spain, I tried to order tickets but I became a message that somebody had been faster.. I tried it for about 1 hour and then I came through and got the tickets, I am so happy now, there is also a small chance that I get tickets for Italy-czech...
so for that match on friday I am gonna say: viva espana
I have to third that. His starting lineup and sub choices are just dreadful. The team's talent is going to waste in an underachieving football wasteland.
Not to take anything away from Korea today, but putting on Trez as a sub... in the 90th minute?
And Gallas should have tried to stick a leg in there to prevent that goal -- he seemed to back off at the last moment (fear of hitting the woodwork?).
Not to take anything away from Korea today, but putting on Trez as a sub... in the 90th minute?
And Gallas should have tried to stick a leg in there to prevent that goal -- he seemed to back off at the last moment (fear of hitting the woodwork?).
In terms of media, definitely. Also, it's one of the only sports where the center ref has almost everything left up to him. In hockey, football (american), and baseball there are multiple judges to share the responsibilities. (two guys to determine throw ins and offside really arent of equal responsibility)
the swiss have a vey good young squad IMO.
For the french: did you see how noone had a clue who should be captain when Zidane was subbed? He trowed the armband to Ribéry who didn't know what do with it. Trezeguet ended up taking it....
This proves the French rely on Zidane for 90%. Domenech chose not to select Micoud, Giuly or Pires, well Raymond who are you gonna play instead of Zidane for the next match? Dhorasoo?
Raymond hasn't got a system. He just hopes Zidane and Henry are gonna pull something. It worked for 10 minutes in two matches, resulting in one goal.
Shocking.
oh and did you see how Zidane went to to the bench when he was subbed? Domenech didn't dare to look at him, and just stared at the pitch. Zidane was pissed as hell.
For the french: did you see how noone had a clue who should be captain when Zidane was subbed? He trowed the armband to Ribéry who didn't know what do with it. Trezeguet ended up taking it....
This proves the French rely on Zidane for 90%. Domenech chose not to select Micoud, Giuly or Pires, well Raymond who are you gonna play instead of Zidane for the next match? Dhorasoo?
Raymond hasn't got a system. He just hopes Zidane and Henry are gonna pull something. It worked for 10 minutes in two matches, resulting in one goal.
Shocking.
oh and did you see how Zidane went to to the bench when he was subbed? Domenech didn't dare to look at him, and just stared at the pitch. Zidane was pissed as hell.
the coach takes 60% of the blame for the french underachievment, the other 40% is on the aging squad, look at how many players are playing there third wc and u cant really expect them to be 100% 98 was 9 years ago and there is no way they can repeat the glory with this squad i think they should've built on the team by adding new young player. i think zidane has given everything he has got to offer for the french but now he is slow, his passes are'nt the same any more, i think the choices made for the names to be called up for the french squad are just aawuful, not calling guily who has been sensational both in the spanish liga or in the champions league is a massive mistake he would've changed how they play and will give them the scoring edge which is in the hand of only one player who in this case is henery. i doubt it very much france can qualify from this group its getting harder with each day i think the swiss and the koreans deserve to go thru this time.
here are the players who played for france in 98 and who continue to be in this squad which playes wc 2006:
zidane, trez, henery, viera, barthez, and thurum, those are the names i could think of.
