why are people so stupid (5 Viewers)

[Elnur_E65]

++ [ originally posted by Erik ] ++
IMO there's no realistic chance of NK being invaded. It would at least take years. The US would first have to draw back from Iraq and Afghanistan FULLY in order to prevent overstretch, which has led to the fall of most empires.

And besides, it's too close to China. The Americans might as well hand over the torch of world supremacy immediately.

I agree, and don't forget, the US already faught a war with Korea in the 60s. Remember what happened back then? China entered that war and the peninsula was split in two.

There are many reason why the US will never invade that country.
1. There is no point of doing that economically- there is no oil there
2. Even though it is considered a "rouge state"- it has its natural enemy- South Korea, but a year ago North and South started negotiations, and they will reach peace within several years.
3. North Korea has been cooperating with the MAGATE (Atomic Energy Agency), invited independent commissions to observe their nuclear program.
4. There is China, with 1,2 billion people, bordering North Korea in the North.

Should President Bush get reelected in November- I think there will be no more invasions. The whole Bush Doctrine was to play agrresively in order to secure fossil fules reserves in the Middle East. They have done their job and for years to come they will be enjoying the benefits.

In that sense I think long-term Bush is better for American people- yes, budget deficit is up, trade deficit is the highest ever, US dollar is weakened and this does not help the US exporters for unknown reasons.
But within the next 20 years there will be so much cash generated from Iraqi oilfields, that the US can pay off its entire internal debt within 10- 15 years.

 

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[mikhail]

++ [ originally posted by Pendir ] ++
There are many reason why the US will never invade that country.
1. There is no point of doing that economically- there is no oil there
2. Even though it is considered a "rouge state"- it has its natural enemy- South Korea, but a year ago North and South started negotiations, and they will reach peace within several years.
3. North Korea has been cooperating with the MAGATE (Atomic Energy Agency), invited independent commissions to observe their nuclear program.
4. There is China, with 1,2 billion people, bordering North Korea in the North.

1. Economics aren't everything. Politics play a role too, and as someone already pointed out, South Korea is moving away from the US. That might not be enough in itself, but there are other factors, like Japan's fear of North Korean nukes, the human rights factor (a very strong card to play) and the fact that the Bush administration has based much of its agression on ideological grounds.
2. I assume you mean rogue state, though rouge isn't entirely inappropriate either! I think the state of the peace between the Koreas isn't by any means key to America's willingness to go to war with them. What did the Hussein regeime do to spark off the last invasion? Nothing at all.
3. I've not heard any detail on that, but I can't see them abandoning their plans altogether just because of global condemnation.
4. That's the real factor that can keep the US away from Korea, though if they did go ahead and do something stupid, which I wouldn't put past them, it might not matter as much.

 

[mikhail]

++ [ originally posted by Erik ] ++
IMO there's no realistic chance of NK being invaded. It would at least take years. The US would first have to draw back from Iraq and Afghanistan FULLY in order to prevent overstretch, which has led to the fall of most empires.

And besides, it's too close to China. The Americans might as well hand over the torch of world supremacy immediately.

The China factor is the difficulty, but the US has practicly nothing left in Afganistan, and I can see them withdrawing from Iraq every bit as quickly if they have yet another target to distract from their pathetic 'rebuilding' efforts.

 

[Elnur_E65]

Economics aren't everything. Politics play a role too, and as someone already pointed out, South Korea is moving away from the US.
South Korea will never tense its relations with the US, same as Japan, Taiwan and Singapore. The main reason for that- economics. The "Asian Dragons" have built their wealth on Western investment and majority of these nations' trade is now conducted with the US. You tense trade relations with the West- your stock market crashes hours after and you are in a recession. And by the way, South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun, which was "moving away form the US" has been impeached in the National Assembley by a 193-2 vote.

That might not be enough in itself, but there are other factors, like Japan's fear of North Korean nukes, the human rights factor (a very strong card to play) and the fact that the Bush administration has based much of its agression on ideological grounds.
Japan fearing North Korean nukes? Japan has been consistantly supplied with the world's best Anti Ballistic Missles system by the US since Korea has been split. These things will hit a fly 50 kilometers high. Since then American technology only advanced, while NKorean (and Soviet) stayed on the 1970 level. Even if NK posess nuclear weapons (which MAGATE is yet to find), it will get struck by American ABMs long before it apprears above Japan's skies. Yes, people fear the nukes, but there is no way in hell the US will attack NK because of Japan's fears.
Human Rights factor? There is no human rights factor. Bush is much more pragmatic than many people think. As Henry Kissinger once said about one nation's president: "he is a son of a *****, but he is our son of a *****". Best example- Central Asia. The US are top allies of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which rented out their military airports to the Americans in support of anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan. In Turkmenistan- there is no opposition, there is no free press, people get thrown into prisons, people get shot and killed by the ruling regime everyday. The State Department condemns that, in their official briefings. But realistically- nobody cares, and nobody should care, because Turkmenistan's President is supportive of the United States. The US uses its military bases. Kazakhstan's oil (one million barrels per day) will be exported to the world markets through the BTC (Azerbaijan- Turkey) pipeline, not the Russian pipeline, so that Russia does not control it and fossil fuels supply is controled by the US. That's what counts. It's purely economics, strategy and security.

I think the state of the peace between the Koreas isn't by any means key to America's willingness to go to war with them.
Oh yes it is! If Koreas make peace- this is the first step to reunification, just like Germany did in 1990. This means peace, no more fears, and billions and billions of South Korean and American investments into the North. Money rules the world.

Why does North Korea needs to be attacked? To save starving North Korean children? The US has been there twice: in Korea and Viet Nam. They don't want to go back. And there is absolutely no rationale for that.

If I was the American President, and I had to invade one country of my choice- it would be Iran. It's huge, it has lots of oil, and it has great geopolitical positioning in the region.

 

[Slagathor]

++ [ originally posted by mikhail ] ++
The China factor is the difficulty, but the US has practicly nothing left in Afganistan, and I can see them withdrawing from Iraq every bit as quickly if they have yet another target to distract from their pathetic 'rebuilding' efforts.

Haha yeah, good point.

You know, I always tell people who keep complaing about America that whichever superpower comes next won't be better. China being the best candidate right now.

 

[Layce Erayce]

i wouldnt trust china one bit. not just because their government is shady- i dont trust superpowers in general

 

[Slagathor]

A thought shared by many who never saw the Berlin wall.

 

[Layce Erayce]

ooh. very cryptic and mysterious :dazed:

now explain

 

[Slagathor]

It's just a new way of thinking. During the cold war, people took sides for a superpower. It was either one or the other. Good or Evil.

With only one superpower remaining, we can judge it without too much risk.

 

[Layce Erayce]

true. and the overwhelming majority are anti-america

but americans should take heart. if it was china and they began to expert dominance you would expect the same

 

[sallyinzaghi]

Malaysia just found new sources for oil, I hope americans don't invade us

okay, stupid post. Sorry.

But Malaysia is such an easy country to invade, won't be a problem to any country for it. I was told invaders should get through Thailand to Malaysia because Thais would never protect us.

 

[mikhail]

Pendir, great post.

++ [ originally posted by Pendir ] ++
Economics aren't everything. Politics play a role too, and as someone already pointed out, South Korea is moving away from the US.
South Korea will never tense its relations with the US, same as Japan, Taiwan and Singapore. The main reason for that- economics. The "Asian Dragons" have built their wealth on Western investment and majority of these nations' trade is now conducted with the US. You tense trade relations with the West- your stock market crashes hours after and you are in a recession. And by the way, South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun, which was "moving away form the US" has been impeached in the National Assembley by a 193-2 vote.

I wasn't aware. Thanks.

That might not be enough in itself, but there are other factors, like Japan's fear of North Korean nukes, the human rights factor (a very strong card to play) and the fact that the Bush administration has based much of its agression on ideological grounds.
Japan fearing North Korean nukes? Japan has been consistantly supplied with the world's best Anti Ballistic Missles system by the US since Korea has been split. These things will hit a fly 50 kilometers high. Since then American technology only advanced, while NKorean (and Soviet) stayed on the 1970 level. Even if NK posess nuclear weapons (which MAGATE is yet to find), it will get struck by American ABMs long before it apprears above Japan's skies. Yes, people fear the nukes, but there is no way in hell the US will attack NK because of Japan's fears.

I'm afraid that you seriously overestimate the effectiveness of American anti-missile systems. In testing, they had a success rate of something like 2%. In other words, even if you fire 50 ABMs at an incoming missile, you still can't be sure of hitting it. :nervous:

Human Rights factor? There is no human rights factor. Bush is much more pragmatic than many people think. As Henry Kissinger once said about one nation's president: "he is a son of a *****, but he is our son of a *****". Best example- Central Asia. The US are top allies of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which rented out their military airports to the Americans in support of anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan...

All true. The thing is, the US is quite capable of playing the card hypocritically - they claimed that they were going into Iraq to remove a dangerous, dictatorial regieme, while basing their troops in Soudi Arabia - a pretty nasty place to live by all accounts. (Who wants to lay odds on a Saudi spotting this and argueing with me?! )

I think the state of the peace between the Koreas isn't by any means key to America's willingness to go to war with them.
Oh yes it is! If Koreas make peace- this is the first step to reunification, just like Germany did in 1990. This means peace, no more fears, and billions and billions of South Korean and American investments into the North. Money rules the world.

The state of East German politics was quite different to that of North Korea. Also, the East German population wanted unification, while the North Korean people are fed propaganda from a very young age to prevent just that.

Why does North Korea needs to be attacked? To save starving North Korean children? The US has been there twice: in Korea and Viet Nam. They don't want to go back. And there is absolutely no rationale for that.

I'd suggest that you read an old thread called Earth at Night before we go any further on the justification of this. I don't think that old military defeats would seriously worry the US now - beating the heck out of the armys of Iraq and Afganistan was childs play, and their only real worry if they went into North Korea would be the China factor.

If I was the American President, and I had to invade one country of my choice- it would be Iran. It's huge, it has lots of oil, and it has great geopolitical positioning in the region.

That's definately a possibility, and I wouldn't rule it out by any means if Bush gets reelected in November.

 

[mikhail]

++ [ originally posted by Erik ] ++
It's just a new way of thinking. During the cold war, people took sides for a superpower. It was either one or the other. Good or Evil.

With only one superpower remaining, we can judge it without too much risk.

Careful, the CIA are trying to expand their powers to spy on peopel using the internet! :groan:

I think if we see China expanding, the western world would back the US. Europe might even solidify into a single power block.

 

[Slagathor]

++ [ originally posted by mikhail ] ++
Careful, the CIA are trying to expand their powers to spy on peopel using the internet! :groan:

What makes you think they don't already do that? Right after 9-11, the Dutch secret service (AIVD) was given an official pardon (in advance, mind you) from breaking privacy rules. How's that for democracy? Glad I have nothing to hide.

Then last month, several national news agencies did some research and it turns out that nowhere in the world is the number of phones tabbed, e-mails checked and letters scanned as high as it is in Holland. Meaning that out of every 10 e-mails sent, 8 are checked thoroughly, the other 2 are scanned roughly for some key words. In the US, this is only half as much.

Stunning, no?

I think if we see China expanding, the western world would back the US. Europe might even solidify into a single power block.

There are numerous theories on that. It is true that Europe might become one solid power block but there's also the risk that a bloc as internally diverse as Europe would soon crumble when any outside threat disappears.

China will expand and increase it's influence in the world. Key issue will be which side Russia will take. The Russians hold the future, though they probably don't realise it and I hope they never will.

 

[Lawnchair Bes]

the more technology u use the less privacy u have

 

[Slagathor]

Yes well, privacy was always relative anyway. Barely even existed in Cold War Europe.

 

[Lawnchair Bes]

the only privacy we have is in our heads

 

[mikhail]

++ [ originally posted by Erik ] ++
What makes you think they don't already do that? Right after 9-11, the Dutch secret service (AIVD) was given an official pardon (in advance, mind you) from breaking privacy rules. How's that for democracy? Glad I have nothing to hide.

Apalling. Where in your country's privacy laws does it say "except for the secret service"? Is that kind of thing even constitutional?

...out of every e-mail sent, 8 are checked thoroughly, the other 2 are scanned roughly for some key words. In the US, this is only half as much.

They check ten emails for every one sent? I think they need a slightly more efficient system.

Seriously, nothing you write or say is going to get you into trouble unless you're looking for it by flirting with a suspect group, but that kind of invasion of privacy is just scary. :down:

Note to self: stop running terrorist cell by email.

Note to CIA: I'm taking the piss.

There are numerous theories on that. It is true that Europe might become one solid power block but there's also the risk that a bloc as internally diverse as Europe would soon crumble when any outside threat disappears.

Smarter, better informed people than you and I don't know what will happen to Europe, but I'd speculate that a serious threat like an expansionist China would be a unifying force, even if Britain was to go its own (American) way.

China will expand and increase it's influence in the world. Key issue will be which side Russia will take. The Russians hold the future, though they probably don't realise it and I hope they never will.

I imagine the Russians will be worried about China eyeing up Siberia. Besides, if enough time elapses, they may well be part of Europe at that stage.

 

[Dragon]

I saw Osama Bin Laden in the TV today, but I couldnt hear what he was saying. What did he say?

 

[mikhail]

++ [ originally posted by fabiana ] ++
I saw Osama Bin Laden in the TV today, but I couldnt hear what he was saying. What did he say?

Bah. He's on tv more often than David Beckham. Media whore!