Thanks for this. Love the perspective.
Do you think any of this is also enflamed by the pension protests a few months back? At one level, the same part is, as you say, Macron railroading over the interests of the governed. But I imagine the social intersection is very different: the folks who aren't working enough and feeling left out versus those who might be more of the established working class seeing threats to their post-work retirement lives?
There is clearly a feeling of anger fatigue on the part of the French who have been brooding for years.
During the yellow vests, the main protests came from peripheral areas: provinces and former industrial areas in crisis. People are tired of the increase tax and wonder where the money is going? They have the feeling of always paying more taxes and of having always less public service which is deteriorating: the post offices are disappearing, less school, less maternity and hospitals... The anger came from the will to increase fuel taxes, while the car is essential in these places, there is no metro, no bus, no tram if you want to go to your work, if you want to do shopping, if you want to go to the hospital. Those things that disconnected politicians like Macron and people who lives in big cities don't understand because they have everything at their fingertips. This is the theory of David Goodhart anywhere and anywhere.
Macron was lucky that there was no convergence of protests, as residents of big cities and suburbs did not participate or very weakly.
During the pension protest, I think it affected the vast majority of people who work in France, wherever they live, even the small towns protested, the only group that was less hostile is the one that is not not affected by this reform, people who are retired. This time in a cynical way, he waited for the weariness of people, telling himself that with inflation they could not protest forever
And not to be sympathetic to Macron here, but do you think it would be possible in France to have a legitimate social discourse around retirement ages and budgets to fund them without cutting services or raising taxes?
These assholes who govern have understood nothing. During the Covid crisis, for the French it was a schock to see the downgrading in real life: no masks, unable to make an antitodes, no hospitalization place, garbage bags as protection. Macon at the end of the crisis had said "that France would be indebted to those who held the country upright", the nurses, the cashiers, the garbage collectors....
In the midst of inflation and war in Ukraine, to thank them he inflicted two more years on them, without taking into account that the covid has changed people's mentality and their way of seeing work: like everywhere in the world there has been a great movement of resignations because people no longer necessarily find meaning in their work, feel that they are not paid at their fair value, no longer want to work in offices and prefer teleworking...
Of course it is possible to reform pensions, but for that it would have been necessary first to reform the working world, which has changed with the covid. And then make a reform of pensions which requires concerting, listening to everyone, thinking for months to find the fairest and most peraine reform, but this asshole decided to do everything upside down and in an authoritarian way to pass in force without taking into account the French who have demonstrated for months, nor taking union demands.
France has a presidential regime unlike many European countries which have a parliamentary regime, democracy in France boils down to voting every 5 years for the presidential election and then closing your mouth. There is no sense of compromise like elsewhere, in France when you have the majority of deputies you do what you want, except that Macron has still not understood that he does not have the majority. To pass his reform, he used all the subterfuges that the constitution allows him:
- Article 49.3 (allows the Prime Minister to have a bill adopted, not by having it voted on in Parliament (according to the classic procedure provided for by the Constitution) but by linking its adoption to the maintenance, or not, of his government)
- article 47.1(makes it possible to cut short the debates in the National Assembly by obliging the parliament (assembly + senate) to decide on the text after one month even if all the articles have not been voted on.)
- article 44-3 of the Constitution, known as the "blocked vote", allows the Assembly seized to "decide by a single vote on all or part of the text under discussion, retaining only the amendments proposed or accepted by the government".
But this isn't about that per se. Lots of echoes here of 2005 though. But these protests I bet aren't so much about the situation with these marginal folks as it is overall discontent with the state of French fraternité, égalité, and liberté.
These marginals are thugs who take advantage of this event to break, sack. In 2005, twitter, smartphones were very recent, tiktok snapchat did not exist. Today with social networks, there is a contest and instantaneous to be the one who does the most damage.
Problem of integrations, many French people from outside Europe consider themselves discriminated against; more unemployment, more police checks, more racism... On the other hand, many French people consider that they no longer feel in France because there is a clash of cultures with the migratory crises, the problems of secularism, Islamist attacks.
I tell myself that more and more in 2027 there will not be a civil war; macron has degraded democracy and people are angry, the extreme right continues to rise, the suburbs at the slightest problem become inflammable.