Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,601
Yeah, earthquakes are among the most difficult natural disasters to predict.
No doubt, I’m not sure what their modeling is based on, if anything at all. But I’d imagine you could have a model based on clusters of smaller quakes and probabilities, looking back on past data. Still wouldn’t seem valid to have 98% chances all the time.

- - - Updated - - -

Lol never seen an SNL skits where they breaking character this much by holding in laughter mid lines.
It’s one of my fave skits. SNL sucks these days but that was a gem.
 

swag

L'autista
Administrator
Sep 23, 2003
83,480
@swag

How reliable are these models?


- - - Updated - - -

Nevermind, these guys predict this shit all the time. :lol:
Just not enough data points to be reliable yet. To tell false positives from true ones, you need a lot more true positives.

That said, figures I'd be here for that. :D

And it fits the old wive's tale about lots of rain "lubricating" the plates to slip... associating heavy rains with earthquake activity.
 

Bjerknes

"Top Economist"
Mar 16, 2004
111,601
Just not enough data points to be reliable yet. To tell false positives from true ones, you need a lot more true positives.

That said, figures I'd be here for that. :D

And it fits the old wive's tale about lots of rain "lubricating" the plates to slip... associating heavy rains with earthquake activity.
Atmospheric rivers dumping some well needed rain. Heading out to CA again in March, can’t wait.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 79)