2 more games today...
Serbia - Czech, in this game Serbia should have no problems going through. they play fantastic this tournament, both defensively and offensively. Teodosic is running their offense so well, Bjelica, the Euroleague MVP last season, is directly deciding games for them with his performances, the young Bogdanovic can explode and change any game with his shots, others like Raduljica, Kalinic, Markovic, Nedovic, Herceg are playing their roles very well. the team is well balanced, they have a long bench, they have players that can decide games, and they have great chemistry as most of them have been together in the NT for years. Czech surprisingly beat Croatia in their last game. i havent watched them this tournament apart from that game where they looked fantastic the whole game except for the 4th quarter where they slowed down a bit due to their big lead. but Serbia is no Croatia, they are a level above after all. Vesely and Satoransky are playing great in this tournament, their American Blake Schilb is supporting them well. if someone else can step up, like the veteran Jiri Welsch for example, and support the trio above, it could become a more closer and interesting game.
in the end, Serbia - Croatia would have been the better game, mainly because Croatia is normally the better team and because of the rivalry between the 2 nations. this way, i expect Serbia to get to the semis with a comfortable win. 80-20 chances for Serbia
Italy - Lithuania should be a fantastic game. Italy is playing amazing offensively this tournament. Gallinari, together with Gasol, top favorite for the Eurobasket MVP if Italy goes far, Belinelli and Bargnani, 2 other NBA players, Gentile, a fantastic young player. if these guys are
hot, they can beat anyone. other players on their bench like Aradori, Cinciarini, Polonara, Cousin are also good players and can step up when needed. if Gigi Datome was fit, id say they are top favorites even. they are such a team that can beat some top team like Greece with +20 one day, then lose to someone like Turkey the other day. they depend a lot on their 3pt shooting and their defense is shaky, those are their weaknesses, but they can make up for that with their fantastic offensive players. key to beating them is stopping Gallinari and Belinelli, but thats much easier said than done. Lithuania is still a mystery to me. they topped a relatively weak group and beat a not so good opponent in their last round. like the Czech, i havent watched them in the 1st round due to the other groups being much more interesting, but they are weaker than last tournament(s) imo. Kleiza is not there, Pocius too, Jasikevicius since 2011. Kalnietis, Maciulis and ofcourse, Valanciunas are the players this team is built around. the rest are mostly solid role players, with some very young uprising stars (Sabonis
) and some players that are close to retirement. i wish id have saw them vs someone like Greece or Serbia to be able to know more about their current level, because even if they lose to Italy, i still would not be able to tell how good that team is (Italy can destroy anyone and lose to anyone).
in this game, i expect Italy to go through still. i cant see a player in Lithuania that can stop, or even slow down, Danilo Gallinari. if Belinelli plays his role as expected, Italy should be able to win this. if Gentile follows them, clear win for Italy. 70-30 in this game chances for Italy.
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