The Plausibility Argument (3 Viewers)

mikhail

Senior Member
Jan 24, 2003
9,576
#21
First off, scientifically, there is no answer. We simply debate on the means of reason and philosophy.
Philosophy has its uses. Determining the origin of the universe isn't one of them.

Occam's Razor merely states that the best explanation is usually the simplest.
Sort of. In a scientific context, Occam's Razor is used to pick between competing theories which are all consistent with the evidence. It's a convenience: the simplest model is the easiest to use. If there's no reason not to use it, then use it. That's not what we're doing here. Occam's Razor states nothing about the correctness of a theory.

This is actually a very logical statement," if you can't explain a theory to your local bartender, it is simply not good enough". I don't see why it cannot apply here.
I can't explain some of the denser partical physics to me, and I'm almost a doctor of engineering. Those theorys still make predictions tested in experiments. Einstein's relativity, to pick a familiar example, has made provable predictions in a huge number of experiments involving everything from gravitational lensing of starlight around the edge of the sun to atomic clocks running slow at high speeds to really weird shit involving gravity waves detected by huge detectors buried underground. Whether you or your bartender understand it is irrelevant.

String theory and classical physics make the same predictions at relatively low energies. At high energies, they differ. Unfortunately, the energy necessary to test string theory is beyond us for now, so it's thought of by many physicists as a steaming pile of crap. Not because it's necessarily wrong, but because Occam's Razor says just use the classical model because we can't tell the difference and the classical model is simpler.

The question of probability is ... whether this occurence of life on earth was entirely by means of coincidence, the probability of that is exceedingly small.
What probabilty? You've clearly never taken a proper mathematical probabilty course. The probability that anything occurs depends on the variables. Maybe the process that created the universe had only a few stable states. How many times did it run? What process? It's all crap, talking in a vacuum. It's not possible to come to a conclusion without data, and we have none. So you can participate in a philosophical circle jerk if you like, but in the end you'll probably come to the conclusion you expected in the first place. That's why data is king in science. People are really shit at philosophical physics. It's something in our humours.

The scientific theory suggests that the sun actually formed 5 billion years ago. an argument can be made that the origins of complex life could not have been made 5-10 billion years after the big bang. This implicates the intervention of a higher power.
Yes, the sun is about 5 billion years old. That's the line they've been using since I was a kid anyway.
What argument can be made? It's a new one to me, and I read a fair bit about that sort of thing.
Is this your line of reasoning now? God made the universe, but he just wasn't good enough at this whole universe making deal to make it all unfold like he wanted, so he meddled a bit more and fixed his mistakes to make life? Some omnipotent God he is.
 

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mikhail

Senior Member
Jan 24, 2003
9,576
#22
The scientific theory, look it up if you do not know what I am talking about, does state that the star (our sun) formed 5 billion years ago. This is a theory based on scientific calculations, I didn't make it up. Now, life on earth occured a mere couple of hundred million years later. What I suggested is that it takes a much longer time for intelligent life to form.
Oh. Right. A couple of hundred million years. No time at all really. It's actually 1,500,000,000 to 2,000,000,000 years according to the fossil record, and while the mechanism behind the origin of life is not understood well enough to put a good timescale on it, I've never seen a suggestion that it would take longer than it's thought to have had.

This philosophy is anything that is faith based, most of the theories I presented here are from a scientist names Francis Collins, look him up. He started believing god in his late twenties, he strongly believed in atheism untill that time. The theory that changed his mind most was the "Moral Law", perhaps a topic I will post soon here.
I've only read the wikipedia article on the man, but its claims about what he believes aren't consistent with yours. While he shares your views on the origin of the universe, he seems to be consistent with the scientific concensus on the origin of life.

It is remarkable to me that you post as if attacking me, it's like I have harmed you in some way.
I read no such tone in his post. He is dismissive. That's not an attack. Accusing someone of closemindedness and of attacking you is pretty weak.

Anyhow, I've lingered too long. I missed lunch, so I'm going to head home and make me a sandwich.
 
OP
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Jun 13, 2007
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  • Thread Starter #23
    What probabilty? You've clearly never taken a proper mathematical probabilty course. The probability that anything occurs depends on the variables. Maybe the process that created the universe had only a few stable states. How many times did it run? What process? It's all crap, talking in a vacuum. It's not possible to come to a conclusion without data, and we have none. So you can participate in a philosophical circle jerk if you like, but in the end you'll probably come to the conclusion you expected in the first place. That's why data is king in science. People are really shit at philosophical physics. It's something in our humours.


    Yes, the sun is about 5 billion years old. That's the line they've been using since I was a kid anyway.
    What argument can be made? It's a new one to me, and I read a fair bit about that sort of thing.
    Is this your line of reasoning now? God made the universe, but he just wasn't good enough at this whole universe making deal to make it all unfold like he wanted, so he meddled a bit more and fixed his mistakes to make life? Some omnipotent God he is.
    To begin with, it's not very difficult to comprehend the concept that it is highly implausible for the universe to appear out of absolute randomization. We don't have numbers or figures nor can we test this situation so the probability you have in mind is irrelevant. I am simply concluding out of common sense, out of rationality, that it is very very unlikely that we are here out of pure chance. That there are a comprehensively and overwhelmingly large number of conditions that must be exactly the way they are for us to survive.

    Let me put it this way. Too many values had seemingly been arranged around the central task of producing us. It was really almost that the 15 billion year evolution of the universe had been directed toward one goal, the creation of human life.

    No, my line of theory is that God put force all the physical components, decided the laws of nature and so forth therefore inevitably accomplishing his primary goal which is our creation. Now, it is a little self-centered and perhaps gullible that God's work is planned towards us and us only. Perhaps there are multiple universes out there of gods creations, perhaps they are even infinite and God is infinitely present at all of the. Perhaps other creatures in other universes posess simmilar or even higher intelligence than ours.
     
    OP
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    Jun 13, 2007
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  • Thread Starter #24
    a suggestion that it would take longer than it's thought to have had.


    I've only read the wikipedia article on the man, but its claims about what he believes aren't consistent with yours. While he shares your views on the origin of the universe, he seems to be consistent with the scientific concensus on the origin of life.


    I read no such tone in his post. He is dismissive. That's not an attack. Accusing someone of closemindedness and of attacking you is pretty weak.

    Anyhow, I've lingered too long. I missed lunch, so I'm going to head home and make me a sandwich.


    He is dismissive. That can be a form of closed mindedness, so I'm really not falsely accusing him of anything. It's okay to be closed minded anyway, I don't expect anyone including myself to change his mind directly on the spot. I am only suggesting that it is useful to reflect on the topic than directly refute each and every single idea.
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    111,576
    #27
    If one is willing to accept the argument that the Big Bang requires a Creator, then it is not a long leap to suggest that the Creatot might have established the paramaters( Physical laws etc..) in order to accomplish a particular goal. If that goal happened to include a universe that was more than a featureless void, then we have arrived at option 3.
    :lol2:

    Yeah, I could certainly see God establishing physical parameters and physical constants.

    "Well, I'll make the acceleration of gravity on Earth equal to 9.8 m/s^2, that seems like a good constant for Earth. If I make it less, James Naismith will have to make a longer support for his hoops. But if I make it more than 9.8, it will ruin my passion for track and field. Ahhh I've got it, Usain Bolt will win the 100 meter with a time of 9.7 seconds, just below the acceleration of gravity, because nothing is greater than God's green Earth."
     

    Vinman

    2013 Prediction Cup Champ
    Jul 16, 2002
    11,481
    #29
    there's only one way this thread can go, just like every other time....

    so I change the question a wee bit-

    what came first, the chicken or the egg ??? ;)
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    111,576
    #30
    It's funny how people try to apply Occam's Razor to anything from science to history when they probably don't even understand what Occam meant. In today's world, I find this "principle" pretty much useless.


    “To begin with we used Occam's razor to separate theories which would predict the same result for all experiments. Now we are trying to choose between theories which make different predictions. This is not what Occam intended…

    The principle of simplicity works as a heuristic rule-of-thumb but some people quote it as if it is an axiom of physics. It is not. It can work well in philosophy or particle physics, but less often so in cosmology or psychology, where things usually turn out to be more complicated than you ever expected...

    The law of parsimony is no substitute for insight, logic and the scientific method. It should never be relied upon to make or defend a conclusion. As arbiters of correctness only logical consistency and empirical evidence are absolute.”


    - Phil Gibbs, Physics FAQ
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    111,576
    #31
    To begin with, it's not very difficult to comprehend the concept that it is highly implausible for the universe to appear out of absolute randomization. We don't have numbers or figures nor can we test this situation so the probability you have in mind is irrelevant. I am simply concluding out of common sense, out of rationality, that it is very very unlikely that we are here out of pure chance. That there are a comprehensively and overwhelmingly large number of conditions that must be exactly the way they are for us to survive.
    There are comprehensively and overwhelmingly millions and billions and trillions of different conditions found on millions and billions and trillions of different planets that are composed of millions and billions and trillions of different permutations of gaseous mixtures and atmospheric and geologic composition that could produce millions and billions and trillions of different sorts of life.

    You talk as if you've visited all these planets, Mr. Spaceship.
     
    Apr 12, 2004
    77,165
    #33
    :lol2:

    Yeah, I could certainly see God establishing physical parameters and physical constants.

    "Well, I'll make the acceleration of gravity on Earth equal to 9.8 m/s^2, that seems like a good constant for Earth. If I make it less, James Naismith will have to make a longer support for his hoops. But if I make it more than 9.8, it will ruin my passion for track and field. Ahhh I've got it, Usain Bolt will win the 100 meter with a time of 9.7 seconds, just below the acceleration of gravity, because nothing is greater than God's green Earth."
    :lol2:

    Literally, this is one of the funniest posts I have ever seen on this forum.
     
    Apr 12, 2004
    77,165
    #34
    It's funny how people try to apply Occam's Razor to anything from science to history when they probably don't even understand what Occam meant. In today's world, I find this "principle" pretty much useless.


    “To begin with we used Occam's razor to separate theories which would predict the same result for all experiments. Now we are trying to choose between theories which make different predictions. This is not what Occam intended…

    The principle of simplicity works as a heuristic rule-of-thumb but some people quote it as if it is an axiom of physics. It is not. It can work well in philosophy or particle physics, but less often so in cosmology or psychology, where things usually turn out to be more complicated than you ever expected...

    The law of parsimony is no substitute for insight, logic and the scientific method. It should never be relied upon to make or defend a conclusion. As arbiters of correctness only logical consistency and empirical evidence are absolute.”


    - Phil Gibbs, Physics FAQ
    Well, not exactly, Ockham meant it as a sort of "common sense" theory. Which, you know, I am a big fan of. It means that the "egg" vinni talks about obviously arrived from another chicken, where the thought that the egg came before the chicken because my fingernail shat it out through Mahavishnu Orchestra's drum set 500 year prior ro the future present participle left from the universal truth that all men are created as apedogs, could obviously not be true.

    I understand what the guy says, but from someone who studied psychology for 4 years, the easiest definition often is the right one. It's not your brain chemicals are messing you up, it's that your dad raped you.
     
    OP
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    Jun 13, 2007
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  • Thread Starter #36
    I'm sorry, but this is just as moronic as the whole theory of intelligent design.
    No, it really isn't. What I find moronic is when people who have already made up their minds to be atheists or agnostics, choose to dismiss any theory that could remotely take them out of their comfort zone.

    I have read all the arguments so far, and unfortunately, I have yet to read one that logically and reasonably dismissed what I have posted. Untill then, this argument is anything but moronic. Also, why do you think intelligent design is a moronic theory? Either it does not suit your views or you have a very rational counter-argument, I highly doubt it is the latter.

    Andy, it's funny you mentioned cosmology.
    http://www.godandscience.org/slideshow/sld001.html
     

    Bjerknes

    "Top Economist"
    Mar 16, 2004
    111,576
    #38
    ßüякε;1832887 said:
    Well, not exactly, Ockham meant it as a sort of "common sense" theory. Which, you know, I am a big fan of. It means that the "egg" vinni talks about obviously arrived from another chicken, where the thought that the egg came before the chicken because my fingernail shat it out through Mahavishnu Orchestra's drum set 500 year prior ro the future present participle left from the universal truth that all men are created as apedogs, could obviously not be true.

    I understand what the guy says, but from someone who studied psychology for 4 years, the easiest definition often is the right one. It's not your brain chemicals are messing you up, it's that your dad raped you.
    From somebody who studies meteorology, I think Occam's Razor is a cop out. Like the physicist stated, Occam's Razor should never be used to make or defend a conclusion, which is what people always tend to do because it's "easy. Well, it's not that easy.

    Hundreds of years ago people thought the earth was flat because that was the "most simple" explanation in their own frame of reference. When medieval scientists began studying their surroundings, they concluded that temperature must increase with height uniformly through the atmosphere simply because each successive level became closer to the heat source of the sun. To them, it was "the simplest explanation" but turned out to be incorrect.

    As time moves on and we evolve as a people, deeper clues are revealed in science and sometimes history, allowing us to formulate new hypotheses as such.

    I'm sorry, but this is just as moronic as the whole theory of intelligent design.
    Agreed.

    Nothing in there even comes close to proving a God exists. The development of the universe some 14 billion years ago could have happened due to physical events we are not capable to explain yet. It doesn't mean a God created it.

    Remember, the God theory was concocted in unsettling times when science was nowhere to be found.
     
    OP
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  • Thread Starter #39
    Nothing in there even comes close to proving a God exists. The development of the universe some 14 billion years ago could have happened due to physical events we are not capable to explain yet. It doesn't mean a God created it.

    Remember, the God theory was concocted in unsettling times when science was nowhere to be found.
    You believe in the theory of the Big Bang? Is it not true that such a theory would largely suggest the existence of god? Let's say the Big Bang exists, and it is a widely accepted theory among scientists, one must consider what must have come before the Big Bang, If the Big Bang was what created the universe and was in fact the primary existence in time and space meaning that nothing came before it, nothing at all preceeded it. Does this not logically suggest that a supernatural force outside the boundaries of space and time must have initiated the Big Bang?
     

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