The Lebanese political crisis!!! (5 Viewers)

IrishZebra

Western Imperialist
Jun 18, 2006
23,327
I understand what you're saying but nobody would be stupid enough to go against Israel if thinking pragmatically. It must be seen as political/ideological and not strategic.

I also don't consider HAMAS a legitimate military organisation because they intentionally target civilians and before anybody goes all 'Israel IDF jewy jew jews' I don't consider the IDF a military force, they are a group of para-military thugs.
 

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Nenz

Senior Member
Apr 17, 2008
10,421
I understand what you're saying but nobody would be stupid enough to go against Israel if thinking pragmatically. It must be seen as political/ideological and not strategic.

I also don't consider HAMAS a legitimate military organisation because they intentionally target civilians and before anybody goes all 'Israel IDF jewy jew jews' I don't consider the IDF a military force, they are a group of para-military thugs.
Didn't Hezbollah make it clear that they are against Israel in 2006? You mean Arab nationalism is an ideology? Maybe when its conflated with Islam but I don't see why a state wanting to protect its sovereignty by arming itself is serving an ideology. Israel have threatened Lebanese and Arab legitimacy many times and continue to do so by settling on Arab land. Its no surprise that Hezbollah feel threatened and that they arm themselves because of that clear threat.

I agree with the second part but like Norman Finkelstein once said - 'if Palestine are engaging in retail terrorism, Israel are engaging in wholesale terrorism' :lol:
 

IrishZebra

Western Imperialist
Jun 18, 2006
23,327
What I'm saying is, Lebanon would be more secure and suffer less if it's primary military force were not framed and encouraged by a militant-islamist ideology.

It is possible for Lebanon to receive not only a ridiculous amount of Aid but also territorial assurance and certainty through 'playing ball'. I'm not saying the fact that and Lebanon has a large military force is a bad thing just that the fact that it is the 'Army of God' and remains outside civilian oversight yet rooted in politics is extremely dangerous.

Hezbollah would turn Lebanon into Israel's Chechnya, no doubt about that, but they would lose and the people would lose. In a post Mubarak and perhaps post Assad world it would be very wise for Hezbollah to offer a real term disbandment under extremely favourable conditions because with Aid money and a fully integrated military structure, Lebanon could be a real independent country for the first time in generations.
 

Fred

Senior Member
Oct 2, 2003
41,113
Lebanese or Arab/Islamic?

Lasting peace with Israel and a complete detachment from Syria is in the security interests of Lebanon, I wonder if Asad falls will they be so bold.
What did lasting peace ever do to Egypt? Did they ever get complete sovereignty back in Sina?

At this moment at least, the Lebanese national army is not as capable as Hezbollah in defending Lebanon if Israeli aggression resumes.

Well I'm heavily sedated and under slept so I can't engage in a discussion about what best serves Lebanese security interests. I just think that to say that Hezbollah put their military dominance first and Lebanon second isn't accurate. That's to say that military capability is only a priority for the sake of it. Its very simple why Hezbollah regard military strength as a priority. They believe it is the best deterrent of Isreal who historically have had little regard for the sovereignty of its Arab neighbors. To protect Lebanese legitimacy they believe that they must deter Isreal and like HAMAS, they choose to do so through military means.
:tup:

What I'm saying is, Lebanon would be more secure and suffer less if it's primary military force were not framed and encouraged by a militant-islamist ideology.

It is possible for Lebanon to receive not only a ridiculous amount of Aid but also territorial assurance and certainty through 'playing ball'. I'm not saying the fact that and Lebanon has a large military force is a bad thing just that the fact that it is the 'Army of God' and remains outside civilian oversight yet rooted in politics is extremely dangerous.

Hezbollah would turn Lebanon into Israel's Chechnya, no doubt about that, but they would lose and the people would lose. In a post Mubarak and perhaps post Assad world it would be very wise for Hezbollah to offer a real term disbandment under extremely favourable conditions because with Aid money and a fully integrated military structure, Lebanon could be a real independent country for the first time in generations.
lol what? Israel has a history of aggression against Lebanon, before Hezbollah or its parent Amal ever existed. So illusions of security in the case of Hezbollah's disbandment is a complete myth. At least thats what history tells us.
 

JBF

اختك يا زمن
Aug 5, 2006
18,451
You legit sound like a Hezbollah spokeman, they'll say the same things as you. IF they are charged there's evidence and we must wait to see what it is. Hezbollah care first and foremost about their fuedalistic military dominance, the Lebanon second.
It's not that simple Dan. You should know better. The international investigation shifted their 'results' three times now. From accusing Palestinian organizations to Syria to Hezballah and Syria altogether with Hezballah being the most responsible.

If anyting this whole investigation is a joke based on shit.

Hezbollah believe that their 'feudalistic' military dominance best serves Lebanese security interests. Its not just an ego thing.
Well I'm heavily sedated and under slept so I can't engage in a discussion about what best serves Lebanese security interests. I just think that to say that Hezbollah put their military dominance first and Lebanon second isn't accurate. That's to say that military capability is only a priority for the sake of it. Its very simple why Hezbollah regard military strength as a priority. They believe it is the best deterrent of Isreal who historically have had little regard for the sovereignty of its Arab neighbors. To protect Lebanese legitimacy they believe that they must deter Isreal and like HAMAS, they choose to do so through military means.
Didn't Hezbollah make it clear that they are against Israel in 2006? You mean Arab nationalism is an ideology? Maybe when its conflated with Islam but I don't see why a state wanting to protect its sovereignty by arming itself is serving an ideology. Israel have threatened Lebanese and Arab legitimacy many times and continue to do so by settling on Arab land. Its no surprise that Hezbollah feel threatened and that they arm themselves because of that clear threat.

I agree with the second part but like Norman Finkelstein once said - 'if Palestine are engaging in retail terrorism, Israel are engaging in wholesale terrorism' :lol:
Very well said :tup:

What I'm saying is, Lebanon would be more secure and suffer less if it's primary military force were not framed and encouraged by a militant-islamist ideology.

It is possible for Lebanon to receive not only a ridiculous amount of Aid but also territorial assurance and certainty through 'playing ball'. I'm not saying the fact that and Lebanon has a large military force is a bad thing just that the fact that it is the 'Army of God' and remains outside civilian oversight yet rooted in politics is extremely dangerous.

Hezbollah would turn Lebanon into Israel's Chechnya, no doubt about that, but they would lose and the people would lose. In a post Mubarak and perhaps post Assad world it would be very wise for Hezbollah to offer a real term disbandment under extremely favourable conditions because with Aid money and a fully integrated military structure, Lebanon could be a real independent country for the first time in generations.
The best way for Lebanon to be 'more secure and suffer less' is for israel to back the fuck off and hand over the Lebanese their rights. Whether it's land, water, oil (yes oil) or the simpl Lebanese air space; israel daily violates all those without any explanation and with the UNIFEL looking like idiots and good for shit. God knows how far those bloody zionists would have gone in the 2006 war if it wasn't for Hezballah, they're a safety measure only and by all means once the international community dares to stand up for well, anything right, and get the Lebanese their rights then by all means let the israeli nightmare continue with Hezballah in the picture.
 

IrishZebra

Western Imperialist
Jun 18, 2006
23,327
Firstly, history tells us that Israel rapes Arabs every single time so let's get that out of the way right there. The Sinai is actually quite interesting considering it's demilitarisation as an integral part of the peace accords led to Egypt almost 40 Billion in aid over ~20 years. Now you honestly think that Sovereignty over the Sinai would be more amenable than that money? Discount the fact that it was embezzled, that's got little to do with this particular argument. What did lasting peace ever do for Egypt, that is a difficult question, I suppose it can only be measure in the people that didn't starve, the civilians that weren't bombed or forced to die on the front lines and the fact that 1 in every 10 people working in Egypt before the revolution was working in Tourism, a sector which experienced high levels of growth during peace time. This is not to mention on of the highest non-oil GDPs in the MENA region. Had Mubarak,Sadat and Nasser not been dictators I gather things would have been even better. Israel isn't doing all these things to Egypt, maybe that should also be considered but of course taking into account Egypts size.

A real term disbandment is what I said which would be Hezbollah fighting forces coming under a completely different structural and political command, it just means they would not be Hezbollah under another name. The weapons and men could still be there. I didn't mean to say that all the weapons and men should melt away. Defending territorial sovereignty is fine, militant islam as a frame is unpalatable. And for Posterities sake Lebanon isn't sovereign at the moment because the state doe not hold a monopoly on the legitimate use of violence. Egypt don't have the Sinai? Lebanon don't have the Lebanon.

It's just a considered opinion, but the statistics and history speak for themselves on this one, being a US lackey is the safest way in the middle east. Don't forget that Israel is in place to provide a US beachhead in the MENA and to generate arms sales to the arab states. For every $1 of Us military Aid to Israel, the arabs bought (dunno now) $10 from the US,France,Russia,China and the UK.

Come to the table, offer concessions, consolidate and grow. Big daddy Syria won't have as big as role if things keep going this way, now is the perfect opportunity for Lebanon and hezbollah to do not what is considered 'morally right' but what is best for Lebanon.

JBF, I wouldn't distinguish between Syria and Hezbollah in these things, it defeats the purpose. Don't forget that Israelis killed Irish soldiers in Lebanon, I'm no friend of them.

This all boils down to a 'Israel breaks the rules why should we give concessions' mentality. Well guess what Israel can break the rules because they hold all the cards, for now. It's a bullshit cycle of Israeli wrong-Arab wrong. Like a fucking pair of children saying 'he started it'.



Lads, remember that I'm trying to look at this from an objective point of view, I'm trying to be practical not just or fair :)
 

JBF

اختك يا زمن
Aug 5, 2006
18,451
Had to stop on a couple of points here since you labelled the rest as your opinion and can't do much there.

Firstly, history tells us that Israel rapes Arabs every single time so let's get that out of the way right there
Ever heard of the October war of 1973? ;)
For every $1 of Us military Aid to Israel, the arabs bought (dunno now) $10 from the US,France,Russia,China and the UK.
That's just not true. Disregarding Saudi Arabia, all the Arab countries put together won't equate 40% of the U.S military aids to israel. Last year alone the later party recieved 3 billion worth of arms and that's only the 'formal' estimation mind the under the table ones.

JBF, I wouldn't distinguish between Syria and Hezbollah in these things, it defeats the purpose.
True. But when it's an international investigation we're discussing here then by all means it IS a big difference to label the one party as a criminal then back to suspect and vise versa. It takes away of your credibility don't you agree?
 

IrishZebra

Western Imperialist
Jun 18, 2006
23,327
October 1973 that's the one that was ended by mutual superpower accord with Israel tactically resurgent? Fairly certain that has to go down as a proxy ? Arab states bought 10billion worth of dircet arms from th USA in 2009


Give Israel 3 make 30, do you see what I hinting at? Israel is a cash cow for the imperialist Americans
 

JBF

اختك يا زمن
Aug 5, 2006
18,451
October 1973 that's the one that was ended by mutual superpower accord with Israel tactically resurgent? Fairly certain that has to go down as a proxy ? Arab states bought 40billion worth of arms from th USA in 2009 alone
Source? Here's mine, and I really wouldn't put much on the Saudi deals like I said. Those are actually requested by the U.S not the Saudis to cover some of the defense budget. Some..

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/6948981.stm

Give Israel 3 make 30, do you see what I hinting at? Israel is a cash cow for the imperialist Americans
Yes, and that we agree on.
 

IrishZebra

Western Imperialist
Jun 18, 2006
23,327
Sorry I'm on the iPod, have bee trying to edit that post for the past 5 mins, I have a academic source I'll do in the morning. The us accounts for around 10 in military alone discounting services worth a cuople of billion,The UK I think was 2 billion, although that went up a lot after the Tories took over recently wit Cameron schmoozing. Overall including services and France etc it's a. 10:1 ratio I'll get that for ya in the morning though :) my uk source is the MOD datasets
 

IrishZebra

Western Imperialist
Jun 18, 2006
23,327
JBF, the source is

• Salt J., 2008, The Unmaking Of The Middle East, A History of Western Disorder in Arab Lands, University of California, UCpress

and I think • Durac, V.(2009) 'The impact of external actors on the distribution of power in the Middle East: the case of Egypt', The Journal of North African Studies, 14: 1,

I forgot to add to my lists; the US gives the Arabs 1 generation behind what Israel has, in weaponry terms to ensure they don't get raped.
 

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