Summer mercato thread 2017-18 (57 Viewers)
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I think we can this time. Our revenue grew again, our squad is well covered in each position so we wont have to sign many players this time. Also, what if Mascherano extended his contract but has a release clause now 
BBC
Dani Alves Pjanic Mascherano Alex Sandro
James
Dybala Higuain
Dani Alves Pjanic Mascherano Alex Sandro
James
Dybala Higuain
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Honestly, this
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Thing is, so far we havent made a huge purchase without a big sale
I just went through them as of December.
-Debt to EBITDA is 2.63x, stripping player sales out of EBITDA.
-Sales are growing by 8% per year (excluding player sales)
-Juventus has a huge balance of fees to payout to other teams in the next 12 months, mostly driven by Higuain.
-I've adjusted for the sales of Evra, Hernanes, and Zaza, while taking into consideration the purchase of Orsolini, Rincon, and Caldara. I've also adjusted for full year of Higuain wages.
-Assuming no purchases or sales, and 7% revenue growth, and 8MM in wage increases given to various players, December 2017 EBITDA will be 82.81 MM up from 67MM at December 2016.
-When I assume a James purchase, I assume 70MM over 3 years, with a 7MM wage. I assume additional purchases of 30MM with a cumulative wage of 3MM, and NO SALES OF PLAYERS.
The result is this for December 2017
-Cash flow for the year of -74MM, which is definitely a large investment.
-EBITDA of 72MM from 67MM at December 2016
-Net Debt (debt - cash) will be 251MM, up from 177MM in December 2016 (this is mostly driven by the investment)
-That results in a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.46x, up from 2.17x at December 2016, but down from 3.87x at July 2016.
-My belief is 3-4x EBITDA is reasonable for this type of company. Realistically, the company actually has decent capacity to make further purchases.
To stay under 4x leverage, the company can spend about 60MM more and add 9 million more in wages on top of James. That would be aggressive however.
That being said 100MM in transfer outlays and a wage increase of 10MM (along with my 8MM assumed increase) is totally reasonable.
-Debt to EBITDA is 2.63x, stripping player sales out of EBITDA.
-Sales are growing by 8% per year (excluding player sales)
-Juventus has a huge balance of fees to payout to other teams in the next 12 months, mostly driven by Higuain.
-I've adjusted for the sales of Evra, Hernanes, and Zaza, while taking into consideration the purchase of Orsolini, Rincon, and Caldara. I've also adjusted for full year of Higuain wages.
-Assuming no purchases or sales, and 7% revenue growth, and 8MM in wage increases given to various players, December 2017 EBITDA will be 82.81 MM up from 67MM at December 2016.
-When I assume a James purchase, I assume 70MM over 3 years, with a 7MM wage. I assume additional purchases of 30MM with a cumulative wage of 3MM, and NO SALES OF PLAYERS.
The result is this for December 2017
-Cash flow for the year of -74MM, which is definitely a large investment.
-EBITDA of 72MM from 67MM at December 2016
-Net Debt (debt - cash) will be 251MM, up from 177MM in December 2016 (this is mostly driven by the investment)
-That results in a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 3.46x, up from 2.17x at December 2016, but down from 3.87x at July 2016.
-My belief is 3-4x EBITDA is reasonable for this type of company. Realistically, the company actually has decent capacity to make further purchases.
To stay under 4x leverage, the company can spend about 60MM more and add 9 million more in wages on top of James. That would be aggressive however.
That being said 100MM in transfer outlays and a wage increase of 10MM (along with my 8MM assumed increase) is totally reasonable.
:
I love your posts, but..
90% of people here have no idea what you are talking about, including me.
90% of people here have no idea what you are talking about, including me.
Juventus has a lot of room to invest using debt because of the rapid growth of the business. The team has room to add some salary ~10-20MM Euro, and to make an investment of probably ~100-120MM, with payments spread over multiple years (I assumed 3) . While the team could actually afford more, I don't think the team will be that aggressive.
So yes, the team wouldn't compromise the financial well being if it signed James, and 2-3 other minor additions.
And also worth saying: If the team decided to sign James & Verratti, it wouldn't bankrupt the company. It would be aggressive, but the team's financials are very conservative at the moment. Will it happen, no. But my point is that it isn't impossible financially.
So I'm sure you can all imagine what kind of dry powder the team would have if Dybala were to be sold. I think it would be tough to sign players because all the teams would know Juve could afford 200MM in investment.
so that means without selling anyone, we could afford a James type of signing. i dont think however that he will have a 7M wage, thats how much Higuain earns and Dybala is about to get. maybe around 5M (Pjanic) or little above that. unless you meant gross wages.
OK, so based on what you say - we already bought Bentancur (9.4M), we buy James, we sell Lichtsteiner, Asamoah and Lemina, we get Spinazzola back from loan, we pay the clause for Nzonzi (30M fee, 2.5-3M net wages), we buy De Sciglio whos will be on his last year of his contract from Milan (15M fee, 1.5-2M net wages) - would be a possible mercato, if i understood this correctly
OK, so based on what you say - we already bought Bentancur (9.4M), we buy James, we sell Lichtsteiner, Asamoah and Lemina, we get Spinazzola back from loan, we pay the clause for Nzonzi (30M fee, 2.5-3M net wages), we buy De Sciglio whos will be on his last year of his contract from Milan (15M fee, 1.5-2M net wages) - would be a possible mercato, if i understood this correctly
so that means without selling anyone, we could afford a James type of signing. i dont think however that he will have a 7M wage, thats how much Higuain earns and Dybala is about to get. maybe around 5M (Pjanic) or little above that. unless you meant gross wages.
OK, so based on what you say - we already bought Bentancur (9.4M), we buy James, we sell Lichtsteiner, Asamoah and Lemina, we get Spinazzola back from loan, we pay the clause for Nzonzi (30M fee, 2.5-3M net wages), we buy De Sciglio whos will be on his last year of his contract from Milan (15M fee, 1.5-2M net wages) - would be a possible mercato, if i understood this correctly
OK, so based on what you say - we already bought Bentancur (9.4M), we buy James, we sell Lichtsteiner, Asamoah and Lemina, we get Spinazzola back from loan, we pay the clause for Nzonzi (30M fee, 2.5-3M net wages), we buy De Sciglio whos will be on his last year of his contract from Milan (15M fee, 1.5-2M net wages) - would be a possible mercato, if i understood this correctly
and yes, we definitely have room for a James type signing. The only issue with Nzonzi is he would be a bit more of a stretch because the payment is at once. It would reduce flexibility a lot - that being said, it would normalize the following year. It is important to continue signing players using delayed payments because it is very good for financial flexibility.
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