And it's not stopping
I missed this boat a while ago, great stock for shorting on and, I reckon it'll reach a 1000. Tsla fanboys and bandwagoners will keep pumping whatever it takes. its miles ahead of any future car manufacturer in terms of competition,, while older investors see this as a stock that will lead and disrupt the energy sector. it's both, I get the hype but it wouldn't surprise me if most of the investors are in their 20-30s betting their life saving on this. When this bubble burst they're gonna be a lot of suicides.
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This is what every Tesla fanboy claims but it can't be farther from the truth. They just do not follow other carmakers other than Tesla and their knowledge about the car market and EVs, in general, is very limited outside of their narrow perspective. There are significant developments in Europe, China, and the USA in EV tech that are left largely unnoticed by the public.
Especially in Europe Tesla is just a fringe player in the car market. In 2022 they will improve their position with the new factory but I do not believe they will be the dominant player. VW group has a significantly larger portfolio of EVs already and next year it is going to explode even more. VW is also an early investor in Quantumscape and I believe sooner than later this tech will make it into their cars.
Tesla's current valuation is largely based on fantasies, but these fantasies can become a self-fulfilling prophecy through its market value. Although Tesla in reality is worth nowhere near its market value, that market value gives it a huge advantage against the other carmakers as it can raise capital far easier and without diluting shareholder ownership. Thus Tesla may never need to grow organically but can just buy, outbid competitors, invest in new tech, etc. using its enormous market value and ability to raise capital.
In Tesla's world, there is no negative news whatsoever, as their delusional fanboys see it. Everything is positive. There is really no need for Tesla to justify anything with real products, profits, revenue. It is enough for Musk to promise something and it becomes the next driving force for the stock price.
Currently, Tesla's valuation is higher than the top 10 carmakers in the world, and in total, they make more than 80 billion euros in profits while selling more than 50 million cars.
Car manufacturing is a sector with low margins and in order for Tesla to sell 20 million cars per year as they intend the prices will have to drop significantly. I do not believe Tesla will ever sell 20 million cars yearly on their own with enough profits for its market price to make sense. It will have to grow in many other sectors and the market explicitly believes this will be the case. These projections though are largely based on wild speculations than anything tangible at the moment.
As I see it, Tesla's market valuation can really help it grow through acquisitions and new investments and we may never see this bubble pop.
There will be consolidations among car manufacturers as they will have to collaborate even more to fight Tesla's enormous market value.
I also expect that the governments around the world to gradually decrease their support for the industry as it matures and will start thinking of ways to compensate for the lost tax revenue.
I am a big car lover but I also am an environmentalist and it is hard for me to accept our new EV overlords, but at the same time I am looking forward to the many new exciting EVs cars there are coming our way. I just do not believe and want one company to grab 20-30% of the market. Especially to me Tesla's vehicles are are some of the most boring and unimaginative looking.