Russia - Ukraine Conflict 2022 (54 Viewers)

[Bjerknes]

Switch of power? US-EU relations that were in shambles just months ago are the best they have been in years. NATO alliance that looked about to fall apart restrengthened and multiple member nations finally jacking defence spending to the 2% level. Russian currency, market, economy in shambles, total economic collapse if this continues.

China could be the biggest beneficiary of this conflict. But as things stand, this has just helped force the west to get its shit together.

Russia and China do a lot of business together, obviously. But US demand for their shit is much higher. I can't imagine this is good news for China either.

 

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[campionesidd]

It's a big game imo. If it continues it's gonna be a huge switch of power in the world. No way this is a tiny game. There's no way I'm denying Russian damage at the moment but a wounded bear is a danger to everyone and they will show it. We're feeling it here and I think it's just a beginning.

Lmao. What switch in power? The only switch in power is Russia’s economy which is now in the gutter. Long term this is only going to isolate Russia from the rest of the world and push Europe towards green energy faster.
Putin isn’t the chess grandmaster you think he is.

 

[radekas]

I agree totally, russia is a paper tiger but not sure they would have done it over Ukraine.

I'm sure they would. This is happening too close to the Western World and Ukraine is actually a country that's welcomed to join both EU and NATO.

 

[Dostoevsky]

Lmao. What switch in power? The only switch in power is Russia’s economy which is now in the gutter. Long term this is only going to isolate Russia from the rest of the world and push Europe towards green energy faster.
Putin isn’t the chess grandmaster you think he is.

You're putting words in my mouth again and I don't know why. Did I ever say Russia is getting on the throne? When I was referring to switch of power I meant huge financial blow to EU and China getting stronger, much stronger.

 

[campionesidd]

The only thing keeping this russian shithole together is their nuke arsenal. Without it NATO would already be occupying Kremlin for the shit russia pulled on Ukraine.

There is no mythical ROAR BIG BEAR MAD, BIG BEAR ANGRY. The nukes are the only reason anyone is cautious with this shit.

Yep, I’ve said it before and will say it again. Putin is nothing more than a bald, Siberian Kim Jong Un.

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You're putting words in my mouth again and I don't know why. Did I ever say Russia is getting on the throne? When I was referring to switch of power I meant huge financial blow to EU and China getting stronger, much stronger.

How is China getting stronger, exactly?

 

[Tomice]

I'm sure they would. This is happening too close to the Western World and Ukraine is actually a country that's welcomed to join both EU and NATO.

They are welcomed to join the EU only now, when the nose is on their neck. Were was the EU since 2008?
And they were never realisticly welcomed into NATO, it was just a stick the west used to threaten russia

 

[Dostoevsky]

Yep, I’ve said it before and will say it again. Putin is nothing more than a bald, Siberian Kim Jong Un.

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How is China getting stronger, exactly?

A lot more trading with Russia & getting Russia into their financial system since they are out of Vis/Master Card, which will surely boost their currency quite a lot too.

 

[Kopanja]

The only thing keeping this russian shithole together is their nuke arsenal. Without it NATO would already be occupying Kremlin for the shit russia pulled on Ukraine.

There is no mythical ROAR BIG BEAR MAD, BIG BEAR ANGRY. The nukes are the only reason anyone is cautious with this shit.

Yep, and nukes serve not only as a military deterrent (though, I doubt that some high ranks in the US are afraid of Russian nukes) but also as a bubblegum leftover that keeps Russia in one piece. No one wants to deal with a situation when every Kadyrov Russia has (and it has a lot of them, all retarded on a different scale) has his nuke arsenal. So normal countries have to make sure that Russia is still somehow working.

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They are welcomed to join the EU only now, when the nose is on their neck. Were was the EU since 2008?
And they were never realisticly welcomed into NATO, it was just a stick the west used to threaten russia

When did this happen?

 

[Post Ironic]

That is exactly what scares the shit out me.

As for other things you said, I do agree. But I do agree on a political level, not others and mainly economic. If it drags on it will be a question of food and that's an entirely different beast. It's not just a huge chunk of oil and gas from Russia but also 30% of wheat from Russia and Ukraine. If it continues I think we're going to see the biggest inflation and quite few empty shelves all over Europe with empty gas stations. That sort of crisis I'm referring to and imo if it comes down to that then I see political levels being shaky too since there won't be unity there.

? North America doesn’t import wheat from Russia, dude. And nor does EU on the scale you’re talking. Russia and Ukraine supply 25% of wheat exports in the world. That doesn’t mean that each country imports 25% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Egypt imports 70% of its wheat needs from Russia. Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh combined to buy more than half of Russia’s wheats exports last year. Middle East and North Africa are the places that are going to be severely affected with wheat shortage here. European nations import only a fraction.

 

[Tomice]

Yep, I’ve said it before and will say it again. Putin is nothing more than a bald, Siberian Kim Jong Un.

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How is China getting stronger, exactly?

I actually do believe this, just could not put it into words as adequately or robustly researched as below:

Unlimited oil and gas at under market prices among others

 

[radekas]

They are welcomed to join the EU only now, when the nose is on their neck. Were was the EU since 2008?
And they were never realisticly welcomed into NATO, it was just a stick the west used to threaten russia

The process to join EU is a long one and normally a country needs to pass shitloads of economic and democratic indicators. Ukraine was democratic after 2004, than Yanukovych got to power around 2010 I think and just when Ukraine and EU was about to start the process of joining Yanukovych abruptly decided to quit it which in turn provoked the 2013 Euromaidan protests and the whole shit in which Ukraine is right now. In other words, the EU was there the whole time but you need 2 to tango and Yanukovych made sure there was no dancing.

And I'm pretty sure they would be welcomed in NATO easily if not for the nuclear bear.

 

[campionesidd]

A lot more trading with Russia & getting Russia into their financial system since they are out of Vis/Master Card, which will surely boost their currency quite a lot too.

You overestimate Russia’s impact on the Chinese economy. China’s GDP is 10x higher than Russia’s. And the Russian economy is expected to decline by more than 30% this year.
Besides, the Chinese currency is manipulated by the CCP to keep it artificially low and keep manufacturing competitive. No way they will stop manipulating it now.
If anything, China now knows that invading Taiwan is a no-go, given how unified the western world has been against the Russian invasion.

https://www.investopedia.com/trading/chinese-devaluation-yuan/

 

[Dostoevsky]

? North America doesn’t import wheat from Russia, dude. And nor does EU. Russia and Ukraine supply 25% of wheat exports in the world. That doesn’t mean that each country imports 25% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Egypt imports 70% of its wheat needs from Russia. Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh combined to buy more than half of Russia’s wheats exports last year. Middle East and North Africa are the places that are going to be severely affected with wheat here. European nations import only a fraction.

The US imports only a fraction of oil from Russia, it's like <10%, yet prices skyrocketed to 130 dollars. It's a domino effect. Don't know about that fraction but ever since this happened and wheat export stopped, our country received a request of 200.000 tonnes of wheat which was rejected since it's abnormal request (for us). I think there's a huge demand right now and countries will mostly keep their reserves.

 

[radekas]

Oh and btw it's not like the EU was not involved financially in Ukraine. There are transborder programmes since 2007 that involve countries bordering the EU. Poland had one with Belarus and Ukraine (literally Operational Programme Poland-Belarus-Ukraine 2007-2013 and then 2014-2020). I was taking part in some of the projects.

So yeah @Tomice the EU was always serious about Ukraine joining.

 

[Tomice]

When did this happen?

Not overtly, it was the implication. toying with the idea publicly in itself threaten Russia security perception. justifiably or not

 

[Juventino[RUS]]

The process to join EU is a long one and normally a country needs to pass shitloads of economic and democratic indicators. Ukraine was democratic after 2004, than Yanukovych got to power around 2010 I think and just when Ukraine and EU was about to start the process of joining Yanukovych abruptly decided to quit it which in turn provoked the 2013 Euromaidan protests and the whole shit in which Ukraine is right now. In other words, the EU was there the whole time but you need 2 to tango and Yanukovych made sure there was no dancing.

And I'm pretty sure they would be welcomed in NATO easily if not for the nuclear bear.

They really think that you can join the EU in one night you need to completely change everything in your country to even have a chance to join the EU

 

[Elvin]

You overestimate Russia’s impact on the Chinese economy. China’s GDP is 10x higher than Russia’s. And the Russian economy is expected to decline by more than 30% this year.
Besides, the Chinese currency is manipulated by the CCP to keep it artificially low and keep manufacturing competitive. No way they will stop manipulating it now.
If anything, China now knows that invading Taiwan is a no-go, given how unified the western world has been against the Russian invasion.

I understand why some people are looking for a way out for Russia, because it does seem way too easy that they would be cornered this badly. "Russia can't be this stupid/incompetent/weak".

But you gotta believe it guys, a state based on lies and with close to zero meritocracy can be this weak.

 

[Dostoevsky]

You overestimate Russia’s impact on the Chinese economy. China’s GDP is 10x higher than Russia’s. And the Russian economy is expected to decline by more than 30% this year.
Besides, the Chinese currency is manipulated by the CCP to keep it artificially low and keep manufacturing competitive. No way they will stop manipulating it now.
If anything, China now knows that invading Taiwan is a no-go, given how unified the western world has been against the Russian invasion.

https://www.investopedia.com/trading/chinese-devaluation-yuan/

Russia used to export 10 billion to China but over 15 years it increased to around 150 billion. It's a huge change imo.

 

[campionesidd]

Russia used to export 10 billion to China but over 15 years it increased to around 150 billion. It's a huge change imo.

150 billion out of 15 trillion is 1%. Peanuts for a country the size of China. For Russia it is 10%, so that is huge.

 

[Dostoevsky]

They really think that you can join the EU in one night you need to completely change everything in your country to even have a chance to join the EU

Depends. Not all countries joined "ready and strong". There were plenty of weird choices like Greece.