Interesting read that interprets Putin's moves from the perspective of a semipro gambler:
https://newlinesmag.com/argument/why-putin-is-playing-poker-not-chess/
First, the caveats. Yeah, there's a chunk of details with professional backgammon jargon in the middle that can be a distraction. And the Newlines Institute is known as a rather US hawkish (imperialist to some) think tank, with a track record of calling out China for Uyghur genocide and seeking political transformation in the Middle East.
But it describes the long poker game Putin is likely playing, why he might seem out of his mind even when he might not be, and failures on the part of the West to play sufficient counter moves. (Short story: the West holds a much better hand but has failed to draw lines with clear ramifications for crossing them to show Putin they have the means and they aren't bluffing.)