EXTREMELY LONG AND INSIGHTFUL POST
IT IS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY AND RUSSIA'S FUTURE.
This war is for the United States really important. They can boost their economical perspective and their power in the world (making Russia less powerful is obvious making US more pow
In this war the United States weapon-industry will sell a lot of vehicles, weapons and other army-related stuff. Look at Germany who wants to invests 100 billion euro's in their army because of the Ukrainian war. The US will get money from the weapon industry and can damage Russia as hard as possible, that's a win-win situation. But there is more to come ...
Historical-wise Americans like Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. Closed trade networks from mercantalists needed to be broken up for free trade (capitalism). The Americans doesn't go to war to capture territory, but they want to implant their capitalism-systems and want to make American bussiness rich in your country. They come to your country to take the raw materials and goods and service.
75+ years after WWII Europeans are still consuming American films, music, food, fashion en that's all a sort of long-term dividend that the VS receives. Same can be said in Vietnam for example.
Weapon and army-related buys are more than just an bussiness transaction. A country buys protection from a superpower in the world. The billions we gave to Americans gave us protection in Europe and other strongly-related to US countries. The US don't want too lose their friends, because they will lose their customers and market.
The last implosion was 30 years ago. 10 years after the war in Afghanistan. The downgrade from the USSR to Russia. The consequence was that they lost half of their people in Russia after this.
The Russian people in 3 equal parts on a map:
Even by 1/3th population loss Russia could lose a really big piece of their country.
How can Russia implode again?
Let's start with the architect from the Post-Sovjet Russia (The one who created Oligarch, in order to prevent a civil war or really annoying civilians.) They needed a Tsar to fool citizens. The architect fled out of Russia.
Why does Russia need to implode?
The Eastern-Europeans (especially Ukraine) doens't only fight against those cunts in the fronts of Oblast, Loehansk and Donesk. They are also fighting for their children, grandchildren and their own right to exist. 4/5th of the Eastern-Europeans are ready to fight for their lives if Russia invades.
China will play the geopolitical game more carefully if the West shows that 400+ years of Russian empire does not guarantee their right to exist. China can also be torn to pieces. Chinese nationalism works as long as it goes well, the moment the Chinese can no longer earn money and the good life disappears, nationalism is quickly thrown out the window.
For more info about the demography of countries who
determine the type of economy, energy, fertilizer, food supply, supply lines,... that determine geopolitics, why China and Russia are in deep trouble and why the US has good immunity against the problems, see:
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There is too much staring at the map of Ukraine, that is the tactical level.
At the strategic level you, have on the one hand breathing new life into NATO and on the other hand the central banks can create a global recession with the interest rate hikes.
The Fed wants high inflation to be quelled, the US housing market to cool (from 6% mortgage interest now to 7% in 3.5 weeks), interest rate target for the end of the year is 3.4%, unemployment must up (2 vacancies per unemployed person is bad for employers), energy and raw material prices have to come down,... There are still 4 FOMC in 2022 to raise interest rates up to 4 times this year.
The Germans says produce-prices are +33% compared to last year.
https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/E...onid=FDF44DB6ED5D4FE047A0922182B92C15.live732
Purchases are postponed, industries are shut down,... and companies no longer know how to plan if there is no certainty about prices and wages in six months or a year. Central banks need to restore price stability
The good and bad years in Russia can be read on an oil price chart. The graphic included inflation correction.
Russia only invade other countries when the oil prices are insanely high. 1979 (Sovjet - Afghan war), 2008 (Russian Georgia war) and 2014 Crimea.
As central banks see prices swinging out of control, interest rates are raising, creating a recession to cool the economy. Russia has a limited number of years to wage a war before energy and commodity prices plummet.
Put the price of oil below $60 a barrel and Russia will suffer. Russia can still sell oil to India and China, but they ask for the heavy discount such as 40 dollars a barrel and put Russia back economically in the mid-1990s.
Without access to the international bond market, Russia cannot raise more money. China and India can make a friendly price for the risky Russian government bonds (10 to 15% interest will be good) and then Russia will go to even worse times than the 1990s. (so our economical sanctions could work on the longterm.)
Putin will discover his real nemesis, JPow will end the Russian commodity economy by creating a global recession.
By next year, the Fed wants inflation to kick in to 2%, which will require a deep recession to tame energy and commodity prices. And hitting the 2% inflation target will be a hard strategic blow to Russia.
If Asia goes into recession, Americans will load balance towards more trade with Europe and vice versa. But if the US goes into recession, then the whole world is dragged into recession.
For Europe, a severe recession means hundreds of thousands of people per country are being released to join the army or the arms industry. In the US, millions of people are being set free to be swallowed up by the military-industrial complex.
To get out of a recession, governments will create jobs with government spending. Expanding the military and arms industry was the tried and tested recipe for getting out of the crisis of the 1930s. For the US, war is a business model like fossil fuels are for Russia, cars are for Germany,....
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In 2012 HUGE OIL AND GAS is found in Crimea and Donbass-region.
What does the Donbass and Crimea in Ukrainian hands need for? For natural gas fracking in the Donbass and deepwater oil drilling around the Crimea.
Doesn't Russia have more than enough oil, gas, metals and grain in its own country?
The problem is not just a new competitor that makes Russian exports obsolete. With Western capital, technology, management and thinking, the raw materials can be mined in a low-corruption method and then the Ukrainians will sit below the Russian prices.
Last Olympics China and Russia made a deal about a oil and gas pipeline. They built this pipeline but not without some problems ...
The pipeline to China is specially designed to cost 5x more than a normally designed pipeline, the contractors of oligarchs have to suck out a state company.
In this way everything in Russia can be produced/delivered more expensive than usual.
Exporting to China is only possible with heavy losses:
New oil projects in Russia need 70-100 dollars a barrel to break even. Old fields dry up and have to be replaced by the much too expensive new fields.
The Americans are going to show the Ukrainians how to frack the natural gas price to zero and that was the reason for the Americans to also frack to oil as an alternative to the crashed natural gas price. Deepwater drilling for oil around Crimea is a death knell for Russia. Putting the Brent below $60 a barrel and oil and gas extinguishing in Russia.
The difference between classic oil or gas and fracking is that classic oil and gas takes 3 to 8 years to extract and the Americans fracking it in 3 to 8 weeks. With 50x faster speed, the Americans can destroy the price of natural gas or oil on demand.
If the US drill bits in the Donbass and Crimea go into the bottom, I'll sell all my oil and gas holdings. For Russia, this means never again high energy prices in Europe and never again the high cash flow to start a war.
De Beer is definitely too weak and can no longer storm out of his loft. In the long term, Russia will no longer have war ambitions, just as the Spaniards, French, Germans,... have unlearned the urge for warfare. The implosion of an empire leads in the long run to psychologically reprogram a people.
You can clearly see from the years on the picture why 2014 was chosen to start the war.
The Dutch in the north, the Dutch and British in the Donbass, Americans around the Crimea, Italians and Americans in the west,... who started helping Ukraine with the extraction of oil and gas since 2012 or 2013.
Natural gas in the Donbass can easily be transported to Western Europe via existing infrastructure.
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Russia invested in NordStream 2 in case the Ukrainians don't let Russian gas pass through the country. The oil pipeline has already anticipated oil around Crimea.
The Australians also buy a lot of loyalty, the Australian mining industry has donated 70000 tons of coal and gets good marks from Zelensky. After 29 years without a recession thanks to the piggybacking on China's hunger for commodities, now is the time to diversify.
In China there is open discussion about the fact that since the 1 child policy they have counted 100 million more births than in reality. If their population pyramid is corrected to reality, they will lose half of the population by 2050.
In yellow is indicated what has been counted too much. Few potential mothers to sustain the population.
The expected implosion of China's population and consumption will be a disaster for the Australian economy. Mining in a low-wage country next to the EU is a good idea and the war creates long-term demand for raw materials in Europe.
Destroyed areas are ideal for fracking, mining, heavy industry,... Less nuisance from NIMBY that can protest. Who will live/settle there? The industry and their workforce. Just like fracking communities, mining communities,... exist in the US. If there is work and money can be earned, more and more people will want to be there.
Here's what the Australians want to do next to your city:
In this way money can be earned on the construction of the ultimate tank ditch on the border with Russia.
Eastern European construction companies and suppliers of building materials will earn money from the reconstruction. If a Ukrainian family has to choose between Polish or German ramen, it will be Polish.
Eastern Europe and Anglo-Saxon countries think in terms of opportunities, secure their future and earn money in Ukraine.
Western Europe likes to think in terms of problems and costs.
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I hope this was insightful, love you guys
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