Russia - Ukraine Conflict 2022 (81 Viewers)

[swag]

That is a forehead for breaking bottles on.

 

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[radekas]

 

[Bjerknes]

The end game for Putin is pretty straightforward and quite feasible:

1. Replace the current regime with a pro-Russians regime
2. Finalize the annexation of Crimea by forcing Ukraine to relinquish claim
3. Force Ukraine to acknowledge independence of the 2 people republics in the south
4. Bonus point if he can annex some parts of eastern Ukraine with significant pro-russain population

For me to classify him as crazy I think it should be clear that he wasn't aware of the consequences of his actions, just like in a textbook definition of crazy in a criminal case.
Some of the points you made above are just the costs he is willing to pay for the above goals. Whether that makes him crazy or not I think is debatable and not necessarily a forgone conclusion. Would a normal/stable leader of a western and liberal country accept those costs knowingly? never, but Putin/Russia is neither.

For the rest we need to remember the Tyrant/depots always have and always will have significant undelaying mental/psychological issues and conditions. A well balanced person does not become a tyrant, or stays one if he is.

Those numbered points are feasible on the surface, sure. But nobody is going to listen to those "officials" since every Ukrainian I've heard speak says they will never be a puppet of Putin. Most other countries won't recognize the puppet government either. I could fly to Warsaw tomorrow and say look guys, I'm here with my 20 buddies and I now control the government and you all report to me. That doesn't mean anybody is going to take me seriously.

So Ukraine becomes a war torn country with an occupation where everyone wants to kill Russians. Nobody does business with Russia or Ukraine anymore. If that's the feasible end game, it's probably the most retarded thing I've ever heard in my life.

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I wish I knew Russian, because I'm sure it's hilarious to hear.

Nobody else wants to invest in Russia, so it'll be Russians buying their own stawks with massively devalued rubles.

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So if this is true, Putin won't even bother with puppet governments, he's just going to takeover the whole country and make it all Russia.

 

[Kopanja]

Lol, fuck Putin

 

[Tomice]

Those numbered points are feasible on the surface, sure. But nobody is going to listen to those "officials" since every Ukrainian I've heard speak says they will never be a puppet of Putin. Most other countries won't recognize the puppet government either. I could fly to Warsaw tomorrow and say look guys, I'm here with my 20 buddies and I now control the government and you all report to me. That doesn't mean anybody is going to take me seriously.

So Ukraine becomes a war torn country with an occupation where everyone wants to kill Russians. Nobody does business with Russia or Ukraine anymore. If that's the feasible end game, it's probably the most retarded thing I've ever heard in my life.

I would concede that I don't think Putin calculated for the fallout to be this severe. He just made a decision based on what he got away with before, he already bite off large part of Ukraine before and all he got was a slap on the wrist. It's also evident for the past 30 years Putin has zero regards to what the "people" want.
I'll quote myself to save time

It's feasible, the question as you mentioned is whether it's sustainable. But the sustainability of this is not dependent on his actions but actions of the west. From his point of view looking at Georgia, Crimea in 2014, Chechnya, then why not? Thankfully the west response this round is much more decisive, but from past experience he got away with this before

I will also add that you need to look at Chechnya case again. Russian actions over there where 10 times worse then in Ukraine, Russia leveled complete cities, tens of thousands of dead in two wars. 20 years later the Chechens are sending death squads into Ukraine.

For autocratic countries and leaders it is never about the people (theirs or not), it all starts and ends with the regime. It is the main prism autocratic countries view the world and what people should understand when judging their actions.

Yeah his plan was ill-advised. it backfired. that's all in retrospect (not even that since it's not over) but I don't think he had zero reasons to believe he could not pull this off.

 

[Juventino[RUS]]

⚡️A bill was submitted to the State Duma on conscription for military service in the Donbass of those who were prosecuted for participating in illegal actions against the Russian special operation
you was caught protesting Putin's war? Okay, we are sending you to participate in this war

 

[swag]

So if this is true, Putin won't even bother with puppet governments, he's just going to takeover the whole country and make it all Russia.

Of course it's true. The only room for argument is the timeline.

Yeah his plan was ill-advised. it backfired. that's all in retrospect (not even that since it's not over) but I don't think he had zero reasons to believe he could not pull this off.

Ukraine just like Crimea, right?

 

[swag]

⚡️A bill was submitted to the State Duma on conscription for military service in the Donbass of those who were prosecuted for participating in illegal actions against the Russian special operation
you was caught protesting Putin's war? Okay, we are sending you to participate in this war

There's gonna be a lot of ruptured gas tanks.

 

[Bjerknes]

I would concede that I don't think Putin calculated for the recoronations to be this severe. He just made a decision based on what he got away with before, he already bite off large part of Ukraine before and all he got was a slap on the wrist. It's also evident for the past 30 years Putin has zero regards to what the "people" want.
I'll quote myself to save time

Yeah his plan was ill-advised. it backfired. that's all in retrospect (not even that since it's not over) but I don't think he had zero reasons to believe he could not pull this off.

I don't remember what happened to their economy after those other conflicts, but in this case the costs are so massively high that it makes no sense. And these are predictable costs. Add in all the other weird stuff we've seen with Putin on a personal level and the intelligence reports of him being off, I don't think we're dealing with someone who is thinking entirely rationally here.

 

[Juventino[RUS]]

All German Coaching staff and foreign players are left FC Krasnodar man, my country is deadman walking

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All foreign players will leave Russia sooner than later, it's just a question of time, what a disaster for our sport

 

[Elvin]

⚡️A bill was submitted to the State Duma on conscription for military service in the Donbass of those who were prosecuted for participating in illegal actions against the Russian special operation
you was caught protesting Putin's war? Okay, we are sending you to participate in this war

Such an absurd government. So they admit it's punishment. Also, they will just surrender there right away.

This is another level of retardation.

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All German Coaching staff and foreign players are left FC Krasnodar man, my country is deadman walking

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All foreign players will leave Russia sooner than later, it's just a question of time, what a disaster for our sport

What do you mean players? ALL foreigners will leave.

 

[Kopanja]

Such an absurd government. So they admit it's punishment. Also, they will just surrender.

This is another level of retardation.

It's basically a shtrafbat all over again. Unfortunately, if this ever happens no one will give them any tech, nothing to capture.

 

[Bjerknes]

That column north of Kyiv was bombed today.

 

[Tomice]

Of course it's true. The only room for argument is the timeline.

Ukraine just like Crimea, right?

Yeah

I don't remember what happened to their economy after those other conflicts, but in this case the costs are so massively high that it makes no sense. And these are predictable costs. Add in all the other weird stuff we've seen with Putin on a personal level and the intelligence reports of him being off, I don't think we're dealing with someone who is thinking entirely rationally here.

What you are saying is valid of course. Imo I don't think he thought the west would act so swiftly and decisively, credit where credit is due. I think is very hard for us mere humans to judge the rationality of a tyrant living in an echo-chamber, I would be surprised if a guy like that wont develop some very eccentric behaviors.

 

[Kopanja]

No - no - no, Russians should stay in Russia, it was all fine and dandy in 08, in 14, why run now?

 

[Bjerknes]

No - no - no, Russians should stay in Russia, it was all fine and dandy in 08, in 14, why run now?

I'm not sure if the "friend" is Russian or an American living in Russia.

 

[Kopanja]

I'm not sure if the "friend" is Russian or an American living in Russia.

Ah, my bad, Americans should leave of course, but Russians should stay, they've made their bed.

 

[Elvin]

No - no - no, Russians should stay in Russia, it was all fine and dandy in 08, in 14, why run now?

I gave up on Russians a long time ago. I used to think it's a nation of well-read erudites, but it is a scared collection of of cowards and liers without will.

 

[Post Ironic]

Those numbered points are feasible on the surface, sure. But nobody is going to listen to those "officials" since every Ukrainian I've heard speak says they will never be a puppet of Putin. Most other countries won't recognize the puppet government either. I could fly to Warsaw tomorrow and say look guys, I'm here with my 20 buddies and I now control the government and you all report to me. That doesn't mean anybody is going to take me seriously.

So Ukraine becomes a war torn country with an occupation where everyone wants to kill Russians. Nobody does business with Russia or Ukraine anymore. If that's the feasible end game, it's probably the most retarded thing I've ever heard in my life.

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I wish I knew Russian, because I'm sure it's hilarious to hear.

Nobody else wants to invest in Russia, so it'll be Russians buying their own stawks with massively devalued rubles.

- - - Updated - - -

So if this is true, Putin won't even bother with puppet governments, he's just going to takeover the whole country and make it all Russia.

But but but NATO bad!

 

[Juventino[RUS]]

I gave up on Russians a long time ago. I used to think it's a nation of well-read erudites, but it is a scared collection of of cowards and liers without will.

Well based on comments on social media many of Azerbaijani are not Nobel prize nominees either, you have the same little dictator in your country and you have many things in common with Russian federation

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But but but NATO bad!

NATO bad, Putin good, Balkans great